Worst Beat I've Ever Seen...........No Whining, Just Interesting

[PokerBob]

I wasn't in this hand, but it made me shiver. It'll teach you to play your sets fast.

Party 2/4.

UTG raises, 3 callers.

Flop (4 players) K /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Checks around

Turn (4 players) 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Utg bets, fold, MP-3 raises, fold, UTG 3-bets, MP3 caps.

River (2 players) 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Capped river.

UTG shows KK

MP-3 shows 44 for running quads. Ugh. Bet your hand.

[Hack]

It's UTG's own fault. Giving a free card from EP after raising preflop.

I say he deserves it. There's a good chance 44 would have folded this flop.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
It's UTG's own fault. Giving a free card from EP after raising preflop.

I say he deserves it. There's a good chance 44 would have folded this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but does it not raise an interesting point about letting the field catch up? Letting MP3 catch his set on the turn is MAJORLY +EV, is it not? He is drawing to one out on the river and thinks HHIG. Play this hand this way 1,000,000 times and you make a mint.

[Hack]

I like it heads up, but not 4 handed. I'd like it a lot better if he had instead held 8s preflop and then limped in and turned a set.

But by raising preflop and then checking the flop it is a lot more likely that it will be checked through, because people fear a check-raise.

I agree that over the long run it is +EV but it is also +EV to you just bet your set when you are 4 handed and "GET YOUR MONEY IN WHEN YOU KNOW YOU HAVE THE BEST OF IT", to quote a few people.

For example, earlier today I held 8s and raised from the button and was called by the only PF limper with Qx. You can find that post under 88 hand in this forum. I slowplayed it, she probably thought I whiffed with AK on the flop and she bet into me on the turn. I like slowplaying two way a lot more than I do 4-way.

You'll never go wrong by just betting your set. Most of the time they won't fold. They're fish. They call.

Maybe at a higher limit it would be correct to do this but at most small stakes tables you will just be called.

Hero has a strong hand, but it's not unbeatable. It was a devastating beat that is for sure but to think that your set is almost invulnerable is very dangerous.

[JordanIB]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's UTG's own fault. Giving a free card from EP after raising preflop.

I say he deserves it. There's a good chance 44 would have folded this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but does it not raise an interesting point about letting the field catch up? Letting MP3 catch his set on the turn is MAJORLY +EV, is it not? He is drawing to one out on the river and thinks HHIG. Play this hand this way 1,000,000 times and you make a mint.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very valid point, I believe. Esepcially on an uncoordinated board. It's hard to not be results oriented on this hand.

[jrz1972]

Having raised PF, UTG might as well go ahead and start betting, since that's what everybody is going to expect him to do anyway.

That said, there's not a thing wrong with slowplaying on this flop otherwise. Anybody criticizing UTG for his slowplay is being ridiculously results-oriented.

[AviD]

I saw something very similar in a live 10/20 game at FW last year, where a guy caught runner, runner quad 4s as well.

It was great.

[Entity]

On a 2+2 table once, I saw AA flop a set against a terribly overplayed JJ.

Turn: J. River: J.

Rob

[Hack]

I wouldn't criticize him for slowplaying if he had limped in with 8s and flopped a set, but he raised before the flop.

He is expected to bet after raising preflop. No, he doesn't have to, but it looks very suspicious when he just checks the flop.

[jrz1972]

I agree.

[droolie]

[ QUOTE ]
On a 2+2 table once, I saw AA flop a set against a terribly overplayed JJ.

Turn: J. River: J.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Was I in that hand? It sounds familiar....

[Hack]

How often do you think this happens though Bob?

I mean a set beating a big pair happens all the time, but runner runner quads beating a flopped set has to be incredibly, incredibly rare.

Result

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=693163
pokenum -h kc kd - 4d 4c -- kh 8s 2d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s 2d Kh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc Kd 989 99.90 1 0.10 0 0.00 0.999
4c 4d 1 0.10 989 99.90 0 0.00 0.001

1000 to 1 against it happening. 1000 to 1. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[JordanIB]

[ QUOTE ]
How often do you think this happens though Bob?

I mean a set beating a big pair happens all the time, but runner runner quads beating a flopped set has to be incredibly, incredibly rare.

Result

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=693163
pokenum -h kc kd - 4d 4c -- kh 8s 2d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s 2d Kh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc Kd 989 99.90 1 0.10 0 0.00 0.999
4c 4d 1 0.10 989 99.90 0 0.00 0.001

1000 to 1 against it happening. 1000 to 1. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you just made his point.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On a 2+2 table once, I saw AA flop a set against a terribly overplayed JJ.

Turn: J. River: J.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Was I in that hand? It sounds familiar....

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't find the hand anymore, but I think cold_cash was in it. I can't remember who else was.

Rob

[Hack]

True. I mean you have the multiply the roughly 4% chance of making a set on the turn by 2%(?) I think to determine the chance of runner runner. At least i think that's what it is. Works out to .0008, which is a .08% chance of doing it, or roughly .08% for the whole thing.

Someone can correct me on the math if it's very wrong.

[bottomset]

its still a sml pot, you have a monster it is nearly unbeatable, and by checking you might convince someone with say TT that there hand is good on a blank on the turn, and get a bet out there

actually the best thing you can do here is give sml pairs a free shot at a set, they are almost dead if they hit, will fold to a bet right now, and likely will give plenty of action on the turn and river if they hit ...

[Entity]

Here it was. Between Grease and Banditdad.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 <font color="#A500AF">(banditdad)</font> 3-bets</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button <font color="#A500AF">(Grease)</font> caps</font>, SB folds, BB folds, Hero folds, MP2 <font color="#A500AF">(banditdad)</font> calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">banditdad bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Grease raises</font>, banditdad calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">banditdad bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Grease raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">banditdad 3-bets</font>, Grease calls.

River: (13.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">banditdad bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Grease raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">banditdad 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Grease caps</font>, banditdad calls.

Final Pot: 21.75 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
banditdad has Jd Jc (four of a kind, jacks).
Grease has Ad As (full house, aces full of jacks).
Outcome: banditdad wins 21.75 BB. </font>

[Hack]

You raised 49 sooted from MP? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
You raised 49 sooted from MP? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You haven't played me much at the 2+2 tables, have you?

I'll open-raise about 35% of my hands. I'll also fold about 80% of those raises to a 3-bet. Especially when drinking. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Rob

[Hack]

How can you fold for one more bet back to you? You could flop a monster flush or maybe A23 on the flop and a 5 on the river.

It's sooted.

Is my math right in my post above? I estimated because I don't like using decimals and it's still off from what twodimes says.

[droolie]

I think UTG deserved this. He has to bet the flop. His set was beatable by more than just quads. There's no reason to fear the beat he got but he could very easily lose to runner flush draws. The only time I like this slowplay is if he flopped a full house. Think about it. By letting every opponent see the turn for free he opens up flush draws if any of the three flop suits hit on the turn. The other players are now correct to call to the river with this big pot. He should at least make them make a mistake by charging them from the flop on to make this low probability suck out.

[Entity]

Meh, the math is easy. It'll happen (2/47)x(1/46) times, or about .0925% of the time. That's 1 time in 1081, or 1080:1 in odds form.

Rob

[Hack]

The point I think everyone is missing is that there is a very decent chance the guy with 4s would have folded on the flop.

In that case Hero's hand is golden.

[Hack]

That's the math I did.

I guess I got .0008 by dropping off too many decimal points on the end of each.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
The point I think everyone is missing is that there is a very decent chance the guy with 4s would have folded on the flop.

In that case Hero's hand is golden.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero should bet this flop, but it isn't because he's worried about 44, and it isn't because he's worried about runner-runner flush draws or runner-runner straight draws.

There's one very simple reason Hero should bet this flop, actually.

Rob

[Hack]

He should bet it because he has the best hand.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
Is my math right in my post above? I estimated because I don't like using decimals and it's still off from what twodimes says.

[/ QUOTE ]

7 known cards. leaving 45 left.

2 / (45 * 44) = odds remaining 2 cards giving villian quads

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
There's one very simple reason Hero should bet this flop, actually.

[/ QUOTE ]

the deck is crippled and there are no real second best hands to be made. only a turn Ace or turned set would give him much action. more importantly, no one is likely to bet.

anything else that would continue could be drawing live against him. a backdoor flush draw has proper odds to draw out if you give them a free turn card.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
7 known cards. leaving 45 left.

[/ QUOTE ]

True. I was going with the standard 47 and 46 (cards left), for figuring the odds, so it's 1979:1 (or .1% of the time).

Rob

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]

the deck is crippled and there are no real second best hands to be made. only a turn Ace or turned set would give him much action. more importantly, no one is likely to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

The main reason he should bet, I'm arguing, is because they'll call with these hands. 44 will call this flop a stuipd amount of the time. So will hands like A8 and A7 and A9 and such, for no good reason. And if those hands will call, you should bet.

The only reason to check this flop would be if everyone would fold to a flop bet, but call or raise a turn bet.

I guess it could be summed up in one word: value.

Rob

[Greg J]

[my-bad-beat-story-is-better-than-your-bad-beat-story]
Not nearly as bad as what happened to me once:

I have AA in LP, 3 limper I raise, one blind and all limpers call:

Flop: A 7 T r

All check to me, I bet, 2 callers.

Turn: T

One bets into me, I raise, other player drops out. Capped street.

River: T

Capped.

My aces full looses out to T4o. Now that is a bad beat![/my-bad-beat-story-is-better-than-your-bad-beat-story]

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess it could be summed up in one word: value.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah I think that sums it up. I don't think anyone should be too mad if they all fold either -- the pot is a reasonable size. Reading TOP again, I realize you need to put your opponents in situations where they make mistakes. This is one of those times.

[Hack]

That's pretty bad, but not any worse than what happened here I don't think. They're both around 1 in 1000 to happen.

[Greg J]

Oh it's worse. I bet the flop!

[Hack]

I ran them both through twodimes and they both came out at around 1000 to 1. They both need runner runner. How is it worse?

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
I ran them both through twodimes and they both came out at around 1000 to 1. They both need runner runner. How is it worse?

[/ QUOTE ]

Greg says it was worse because he gave the villain the opportunity to fold by betting.

[kiemo]

I posted a hand like this early last year as a friend in a home tourney lost his flopped set of Kings to runner runner quad Queens.

It was pretty much concluded that this situation is the worst bad beat possible (ie opponent has to catch 2 exact cards to win)

So Gregs example, odds wise, was the same as OP example.

[Hack]

Ah ok. I thought he was referring to the original post like saying he would bet the flop.

Yes that was terrible then.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh it's worse. I bet the flop!

[/ QUOTE ]

Greg, I'm going to argue that it's not worse although the odds are the exact same. From the villain's standpoint, you could just have AK or AQ and thus he has 5-outs against you. In the original post, the villain only had 2-outs against top pair /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

(Please take this post with a huge grain of salt.)

[Entity]

The bad beatness factor in Greg's hand is clearly worse. I'll elaborate if anyone wants.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
The bad beatness factor in Greg's hand is clearly worse. I'll elaborate if anyone wants.

[/ QUOTE ]

Continue please... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[bottomset]

the bad beat is worse for whichever player handles the next 30 hands worse .. suck it up and move on

[Greg J]

Well in the hand posted in this thread, villian is given infinate odds on the flop. I did not give my opponent infinate odds. That is where I'm getting that from.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The bad beatness factor in Greg's hand is clearly worse. I'll elaborate if anyone wants.

[/ QUOTE ]

Continue please... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

The bad beatness is worse in Greg's hand because it happened to him. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Rob

[DMBFan23]

I don't see anything wrong with this slowplay. let AT catch his ace, let 44 catch his set. your hand is just nasty. the only time I would refuse to slowplay this is against opponents who will call with anything anyway. and at 2/4 that is not as prevalent as it is at the micro-microlimits.

we have an anti-slowplaying mindset on these boards, and a definite bet bet bet attitude about most hands. this is probably to overcompensate for the fact that beginners tend to slowplay big hands too much and in the wrong conditions just by habit, and that's a harmful thing. but I think we take it too far with the total dismissal of slowplaying. a lot of the time the bet bet bet attitude is right, but doesn't always get the most.

crappy beat, but if mr. 44, mr. AJ, or mr. 66 would have folded, then that flop check was majorly +EV.

[jskills]

I agree with your sentiments here. Not betting the flop isn't the worst given the texture of the board.

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]

The bad beatness is worse in Greg's hand because it happened to him. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]
Damn skippy!

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The bad beatness factor in Greg's hand is clearly worse. I'll elaborate if anyone wants.

[/ QUOTE ]

Continue please... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I bow down to your superior wisdom counselor! /images/graemlins/smile.gif
The bad beatness is worse in Greg's hand because it happened to him. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]