"Fossilman" Raymer Gambles By Fighting Off Muggers

[Cyrus]

LVRJ Report (http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2004/Dec-30-Thu-2004/news/25570966.html)

Was Raymer's a good choice or a bad one, RoR-wise, for him?

If I could ask a dead man, what he would pay me to allow him to live again, would he only offer $150,000?

<font color="white"> .</font>

[pindawg]

ALERT THE PRESSES!!!!

[MMMMMM]

Cyrus you should check the other threads on this; it has been discussed at great length (check the WPT forum).

Basically, Raymer felt that his chances of survival were greater fighting than cooperating, since the muggers were trying to force him into his hotel room. Plus, Greg was there to get "tells" and mannerisms on the spot. The guy with the gun also appeared unconfortable with the weapon. It was a situation-dependent play and Raymer performed admirably under great pressure.

Don't ever allow anyone to kidnap you; your chances of survival are probably better fighting at the outset than ending up tied up and powerless. If they tell you that "all we want is your money" they might not be telling the truth, especially if they are trying to take control of you physically instead of just saying "hand it over". There is a world of difference between hearing "fork it over" versus "get in your room" or "get in the car".

Greg would also have been "gambling" if he had allowed himself to be abducted to his hotel room, and quite possibly under far more adverse circumstances.

Would you have had the presence of mind, and the balls, to fight in that situation?

[jakethebake]

Thank God! another thread on this! I was afraid it was going to die.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

why MMMMMM didn't make Sklansky's top 10 list. He clearly belongs there.

later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Cyrus]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been wondering for days why MMMMMM didn't make Sklansky's top 10 list.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand that Sklansky reads MMMMMM's posts on the Politics forum as well.

[cardcounter0]

Greg,

I hope you remember my reply to your post shortly after winning the WSOP when you were looking for a baby sitter.

There are plenty of scumbags out there, and you are a target. How hard is it to ask for an escort to your room? Security does it all the time, and it is no big deal. Be careful about letting people know where you are or where you are going.

PS &gt; I think you made the right move. Even if you had forked over your pocket change, there was no sure thing that was going to be the end of it. They had a gun, and could have forced you into your room, away from any eyes.

BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!

[turnipmonster]

the last line of that article is awesome. go greg!

[Cyrus]

Thanks for the response, MMMMMM. I think we are very lucky to be able to discuss a situation like this (about the ultimate risk) sitting in comfort in front of a computer screen while Greg had to actually go through it. (And, no, Greg, to answer you question, I don't think I could have handled myself "better than you".)

But isn't this what it's all about? About analysing situations? Analysing an airplane crash may seem callous to a crash survivor but it is both educational and necessary, IMHO.

[ QUOTE ]
Basically, Raymer felt that his chances of survival were greater fighting than cooperating, since the muggers were trying to force him into his hotel room. Plus, Greg was there to get "tells" and mannerisms on the spot. The guy with the gun also appeared uncomfortable with the weapon. It was a situation-dependent play and Raymer performed admirably under great pressure.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I already said (from the comfort of my PC), I disagree with the decision taken. I tend to measure not just EV -- but the EV/risk ratio (i.e. EV/Var). And I simply find the downside so big (=loss of own life) as to merit a big probability assignment on the scenario whereby other actions (than physical attack) would lead to certain death as well.

So, the question is, which is greater, A or B?

A = P(Greg dies|Greg attacks) and B = P(Greg dies|Greg does not attack).

If A &gt; B, then the wrong action was taken and the correct action (among the "does not attack") must be identified.
If A &lt; B, then the correct action was taken.

Remember that this discussion should NOT be "results oriented" (thank heavens, it turned out alright for Greg) but normative: In other words, what would you (or Greg) advise someone who finds himself under similar circumstances?

[ QUOTE ]
If they tell you that "all we want is your money" they might not be telling the truth, especially if they are trying to take control of you physically instead of just saying "hand it over". There is a world of difference between hearing "fork it over" versus "get in your room" or "get in the car".

[/ QUOTE ]

One could continue in the same, speculative vein and argue this then: The muggers in Greg's case simply wanted to get out from an area that is usually crowded, i.e. the hallway outside a myriad of rooms. Then they'd tie him up, etc. It's all speculation, of course.

As to the "reassurance" that all they want is the money, I believe this is not an uncommon statement by muggers, especially the non-killing kind.

* * *

Greg wrote that those muggers were "morons" and I believe that if they were truly big morons, they might have indeed gone on to kill Greg, after they entered the room and cleaned him up. They just might have done that, even though people might have seen them in the hallway. (I won't question their not being deterred by the cameras, because they were obviously below that level of idiocy!)

Greg also wrote "People like you really amaze me. Somebody makes a hugely difficult decision, having only a second or two to do it, and you criticize them. And it's not just this poster, but several."

Well, Greg, I wanna say that I have nothing but admiration for your courage, and sympathy for your plight (for having to go through that crap).

During the time I was only lurking here, I was learning quite a lot about poker by just reading your questions, let alone the answers they generated.

Nevertheless /images/graemlins/cool.gif , I happen to believe Greg took a gamble and survived against adverse odds. A gun going off is irreversible. You hadda be awfully sure, pardner, that their gun wouldna go off, to attack their ugly mugs!

Take care. And bravo again.

The final word belongs to the Fossilman:

[ QUOTE ]
It may be that [my] conclusion was in error, but it certainly wasn't a stupid conclusion. And in hindsight, I did make the right decision as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

[mike l.]

"Would you have had the presence of mind, and the balls, to fight in that situation?"

that is the $64 question isnt it? id like to think i would but maybe id just pee my pants and let them kill me.

nah, ive been waiting too long to find a really good reason to hurt someone, maybe kill someone, i think id go for the throat.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Cyrus,

If your first post were worded more like this one, you would've gotten a more positive response from most people. I appreciate the kind things you said in this post, and you make good points.

However, having been the person involved, I had to make the decision. I was not motivated by protecting my money. I was making what I thought was the best decision to save my life. I felt that since they wanted to get me into my room, that they either already planned to kill me when done, or that they might make that decision after thinking over the fact that I could identify them. On the other hand, it was not clear that even if he shot me, that I would die, as long as it was out in the hallway where they would presumably run away, and medical help would arrive in short order. While I would hate to get shot, it is not at all a death penalty. Most gun shot victims live. Plus, there was still a reasonable chance that the guy wouldn't shoot me anyway.

As I've said before, there is no telling if they would've killed me had I cooperated. In the moment, I deemed the chances of that happening were greater than the chances that I died by fighting on.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[MMMMMM]

[ QUOTE ]
why MMMMMM didn't make Sklansky's top 10 list. He clearly belongs there.

later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Greg...although my math background is limited, and I do occasionally make conceptual errors, and Sklansky knows this. Also, the others on the list are really really smart. Anyway, (the occasional errors) just might add variety to my game, so it can't be all bad!

Congrats on handling yourself like a champion away from the tables too!

Later,

M

[MMMMMM]

[ QUOTE ]

I understand that Sklansky reads MMMMMM's posts on the Politics forum as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it has been incredibly stupid of me to waste so much time in dead-end arguments on the OT forum the last few years.

[Rick Nebiolo]

Great analysis Greg.

As an aside, is getting a temporary safe deposit box at the Bellagio or other clubs and casinos hard these days? If in fact you had $150K (and there have been discrepancies regarding the amount) it seems you (and others) would want to get in the habit of using a box.

Regards,

Rick

[MMMMMM]

Well Cyrus, here's my take on it:

1. We weren't there. Greg got more of an "intuitive look" at the mindset or attitude of these guys than we will ever have.

2. I just don't like the idea of being entirely at someone's mercy, especially someone who is trying to do me harm. I think Greg's chances fighting were probably at least as good as his chances letting them tie him up or whatever.

3. The muggers surely weren't expecting a fight. The surprise factor probably worked well in Greg's favor. Also, were they really prepared to set off gunshots in the hall, thus attracting more attention? Apparently not.

4. I prefer his chances fighting in the hall, catching the muggers by surprise, and ruining their plans for a quiet abduction and/or theft, a lot better than I like his chances of going along with their plans. They DID have plans, we can likely presume. And part of their plan WASN'T getting punched and kicked and yelling in the hallway attracting attention. Note too how they ended up running off, confirming the validity of this line of thinking.

5. Once, many years ago, a losing player put a gun on the table in a private game and made a remark about shooting the dealer. He was referring to me, as he thought I had been getting way too many good hands the last few sessions. I put him on a bluff and kept right on playing and dealing when it was my turn to deal. He went broke as expected. Sometimes you have to trust your reads. Now maybe that was just poor judgment in my younger days. But Greg had a read on the situation and faced danger whichever route he took, so he had to choose the path he thought best. The path he thought best, logically speaking, also conformed to his read. When your logical conclusion matches your read you'd better go with it. So he aced the decision, and fortunately it worked out OK for him.

6. Just too bad he didn't get the chance to maim one of them in the scuffle. Ah well.

[MMMMMM]

Yeah Mike, I kind of agree with you there.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I was using a box. Most nights, I had very little money on my person. At the end of the night, I would go to the box, and deposit the money. This night, I was getting up early the next day to check out, and instead of depositing, closed out my box and carried the cash and chips to my room. I won't be making that mistake again.

These guys probably saw me leaving the poker room on other nights, with a lot of cash and chips. They probably did not know that I was going across the casino to the main cage to deposit the monies there. Since the poker room cage was out of boxes, I had to use the main cage instead. Thus, they probably thought I had all those chips on me every night, and that might have been another reason to target me, in addition to my new status.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[kodonnell]

First, I am glad to see you survived your ordeal. Second, I commend you for hanging around here with all the loosers that bash on you. I am sure you have other EV+ things you could be doing than posting here. You are a gentleman and an asset to the game.

[andyfox]

Do they have guards at the Bellagio to make sure you have a room key before they allow you on the elevator at night?

Glad to hear the story has a happy ending.

[andyfox]

"it has been incredibly stupid of me to waste so much time in dead-end arguments on the OT forum the last few years."

And most of the time you're arguing with an idiot.

You know who I mean. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[andyfox]

"ive been waiting too long to find a really good reason to hurt someone, maybe kill someone, i think id go for the throat."

And you meet this guy (mike) and he's the sweetest, politest guy in the world. Who would have thunk it from his posts?

[andyfox]

"Once, many years ago, a losing player put a gun on the table in a private game and made a remark about shooting the dealer."

Love your turn of phrase, "A remark about . . " Yikes!

Good read though.

Another argument for gun control? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[theBruiser500]

"Was Raymer's a good choice or a bad one, RoR-wise, for him?"

I don't think this can be answered unless you were there to really understand the situation.

[Cyrus]

Thanks for the response.

[ QUOTE ]
If your first post were worded more like this one, you would've gotten a more positive response from most people.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was not trying to be nice in my last post -- or, inversely, impolite in my first post. You might have mistaken brevity for boorishness. I apologize.

[ QUOTE ]
These guys probably saw me leaving the poker room on other nights, with a lot of cash and chips. They probably thought I had all those chips on me every night.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the potential deterrent measures would be perhaps to let it be widely known that all big winners (not referring to belly circumference here) deposit their cash right away in a safe casino place. If it becomes known that the big winners all leave the casino area without any serious cash on them, the potential muggers might turn their attention elsewhere.

[Cyrus]

[ QUOTE ]
--"It has been incredibly stupid of me to waste so much time in dead-end arguments on the [Politics] forum the last few years."

--"And most of the time you're arguing with an idiot."

[/ QUOTE ]

There are two posters with whoMMMMMM argues most of the time on the Politics forum - Chris Alger and me.

Probability-wise, this makes me a half wit.

<font color="white"> . </font>

[andyfox]

I was, of course, referring to Andy Fox. The third-wit.

[MMMMMM]

[ QUOTE ]

There are two posters with whoMMMMMM argues most of the time on the Politics forum - Chris Alger and me.

Probability-wise, this makes me a half wit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cyrus as you must know a glass half-full is better than an empty glass. There are several empty glasses on the OT forum. You, Andy and Chris however are far from empty. But what you are full of I won't speculate on.

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
"it has been incredibly stupid of me to waste so much time in dead-end arguments on the OT forum the last few years."

And most of the time you're arguing with an idiot.

You know who I mean. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

It's Ootiot. "And most of the time you're arguing with an ootiot."

[MMMMMM]

[ QUOTE ]
"Once, many years ago, a losing player put a gun on the table in a private game and made a remark about shooting the dealer."

Love your turn of phrase, "A remark about . . " Yikes!

Good read though.

Another argument for gun control?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, Andy, no need for gun control in that situation. As you can see the fact that his gun was on the table for a couple of hours changed nothing and actually gave him a false sense of security.

[MMMMMM]

Yeah, I wish Greg had stomped the guy in the face when he was down. It would have been a good deterrent to future would-be robbers, and the guy would probably have been hurt badly enough that he might have been caught by now. But you can't fault Greg for not thinking of everything in the heat of the moment. Overall he did an absolutely terrific job in the situation. Yay Greg!

[andyfox]

He left it there for a couple of hours? Call me a wimp, but that game's definitely too tough for me. Where I play they get upset if you leave your cell phone on the table for a couple of hours.

[andyfox]

I don't know if beating the guy up would be a deterrent or not. But I do know it's a tough situation Greg found himself in and nobody should criticize what he chose to do or not do in those difficult moments. It's not like he could call time and put on those silly glasses and try to decide what to do. All of us should be happy he was not hurt nor did he give up any money, and that he still converses with us here on 2+2.

[MMMMMM]

^

[MMMMMM]

Yeah, well, Andy, if it happened today I might be out the door. But I was in my 20's and hungry and full of confidence then, and I knew he was going to blow his money.