How strong is this set?

[soko]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (15 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, Hero calls, Button calls.

River: (15.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, Button folds.

Final Pot: 17.50 BB

I think I am becoming a very passive player, although I have been winning alot of money over the last few days. Is there anything going on here that would leave me to belive my hand is second best, or should I keep pushing on the turn and river? With 7 people on the flop a VERY loose table, I figure there is a decent chance sombody is drawing, is this a justified worry?

[Stork]

Well of course people are drawing, so what? At least you can acknowledge that you're being passive here. Raise the flop, turn, and river. You have no reason to think you're behind.

[soko]

I see, I usually dont raise on the flop with a set because of the reduced bet size, I usually wait until the turn to make a raise because you make an extra bet when they bet 1 and call one than if they just check called the turn. but when the flush hits I figure one might have the flush. What are the chances that sombody has a flush here?

[sy_or_bust]

You flopped the nuts, have massive pot equity, and should 3-bet the flop hoping for a cap behind you. With all of the callers trapped in between, this should be very profitable for you. Slowplaying against a raise should not even enter your mind - there are too many players, a dangerous flush draw, and you have excellent relative position for your 3-bet.

The turn is scary, and you are likely beaten. Still, you have probably 8 or 9 live outs to beat a flush and might contemplate a (semi-bluff) raise here. A read on SB would make this decision for you.

Calling down from the turn is still solid and probably my line. Get your money in on the flop.

[Stork]

Worse than you think. And about waiting for the turn to raise: That strategy is best to use when your hand is decent but vulnerable, and the turn card will have a big impact on your winning chances, such as if you had top two pair on a monotone connected flop. This is not the case in your hand. You have top set, that is a monster. You want to put in all the bets you can.

[Stork]

[ QUOTE ]
The turn is scary, and you are likely beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nonononono! That is about as scared as scared thinking gets.

However, it is crucial that you raise the turn because while there probably isn't a flush, somebody most certainly has a flush draw, so you have to get the bets in now.

[jaxUp]

preflop: looks good

flop: you have top set. Cap it if you can.

turn: bet. If you get raised, call down. (I might even 3-bet with certain opponents). You still have top set with a chance to impove to a full house.

river: call a bet, bet if checked to you

[Greg J]

Stronger than you treated it.

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
The turn is scary, and you are likely beaten. Still, you have probably 8 or 9 live outs to beat a flush and might contemplate a (semi-bluff) raise here. A read on SB would make this decision for you.

[/ QUOTE ]
No. This is wrong. Sorry to be blunt, and not trying to be rude, but this is just bad advise.

Memorize this: when you have a set you have TEN outs to a boat or better!

Hero has a better idea of where he is at if he (correctly) 3 bets the flop. SB might have caught a raggedy 2 pair -- not likely but possible, especcially for a lot of dumbasses on PArty who cannot read the board. The size of the pot combined with the buttload of outs combined with the possibility of a check-to-the-raiser on the river make a bet here profitable IMO.

[VBM]

hey soko,

it's almost understandable not raising the flop...
if you had raised the turn.
and you should bet/raise the river.

what are you afraid of here? QT? a flush? it's possible, but raising the turn is the best way to find out.

if he's a tight-passive, he'll push back and you can call &amp; throw it away when you don't fill up on the river.

[soko]

I understand, my reasoning was why raise the turn and risk a raise, which might mean I am losing when I can just call the turn and river for the same price. Problem is I am winning more than I am losing in this siutuation so risking the raise is worth it.

[VBM]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand, my reasoning was why raise the turn and risk a raise, which might mean I am losing when I can just call the turn and river for the same price. Problem is I am winning more than I am losing in this siutuation so risking the raise is worth it.

[/ QUOTE ]

ah, this is precisely why 3-betting the flop is a good idea. b/c if SB calls, and then calls a 3-bet, and *still* leads the turn into you and button...what do you think he holds?

[Jaran]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand, my reasoning was why raise the turn and risk a raise, which might mean I am losing when I can just call the turn and river for the same price. Problem is I am winning more than I am losing in this siutuation so risking the raise is worth it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very weak/tight. You gotta 3bet the flop w/all those callers trapped. Your edge here is huge.

-Jaran

[Kasumeat]

With so many players calling the flop raise, it's criminal not to 3-bet the flop.

I'm raising the turn, and calling down if 3-bet.

[bottomset]

to put your edge into perspective, lets say you are up against 33, QTs, and AA(no diamond to make QTstronger)+ 3random

you still win 45% of the time, and those are the 3 absolute worst possible hands that can be out there ... but you are only putting in 1/7 of the money(14.2%)

not 3betting is horrible, you rarely get edges this big, press, press, press

[frank_iii]

jaxup is the only person that mentioned this and it's very important...even if you ARE up against a flush, on the turn you have a huge draw (10 outs) to the full house or quads. I think you have to raise the turn.

[bottomset]

^^ exactly, in fact on this flop if you are up against only a flush draw with no other way to win, ie no straight potential)

not only do you have the better hand right now, but your draw overall is still better than theirs ... they have 8outs for the turn 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif completes your boat, and only 7 on the river if they missed(as the turn card's /images/graemlins/diamond.gif counterpart is now conterfeited)

while you have 7outs to a boat or quads on the turn, 10 on the river ... its absolutely essential you play this very very aggressive

and my post about winning the pot against the 3 worst hands was wrong the 3 worst are QTdiamonds, AA( /images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif), T8(of hearts) +3 randoms and you still win 40% of the time

think about that 3 absolute worst possible 6cards out there, and you still take 2 out of every 5 pots, and only commit 1/7th the betting

[PokerBob]

I think I raise the turn to try to eliminate the button, who may be drawing with the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. It looks like SB has the diamonds, especially calling 2 cold on the flop. If SB 3-bets, then I call and hope I hit one of my 10 outs on the river. All that said, I am not sure your play is incorrect, it's just that calling seems unnatural to me /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[davelin]

Raise the flop for value. Raise the turn, call down if 3-betted unless the board pairs up.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
You have no reason to think you're behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

SB calling 2 cold on the flop and betting the turn when the diamond hit is a sign (at least to me) that SB has the flush.

[PokerBob]

I missed this earlier: NOT CAPPING THE FLOP HERE IS IMMORAL.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I raise the turn to try to eliminate the button, who may be drawing with the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. It looks like SB has the diamonds, especially calling 2 cold on the flop. If SB 3-bets, then I call and hope I hit one of my 10 outs on the river. All that said, I am not sure your play is incorrect, it's just that calling seems unnatural to me /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

its too hard to know what happens if he 3bets the flop, if the sml blind is on a weak flush draw say 75 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif but still bets out(assuming he makes it to the turn), and hero correctly raises, the button might 3bet with the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif which could drive out the sml blind .. its not likely a made flush is going anywhere, but even if its only a sml% of the time it increasing your winning % at a greater rate, once the pot is huge your only concern is maximizing your chance of winning

[kiemo]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (15 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds. SB calls

River: (19 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks

Final Pot: 21 BB



[/ QUOTE ]

I fixed up the action for you man. When thinking back on this hand just assumed you played it like this.

You might also be able to bet out the river, but I honestly dont see SB calling with a weaker hand.

[CondoBrian]

[ QUOTE ]
I missed this earlier: NOT CAPPING THE FLOP HERE IS IMMORAL.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been amazed that no one else made this observation. Given top set on the flop with nothing more than a flush draw, I'd be cheering if someone raised me. He may well be trying to find out where he is. You'll know that if he folds after you raise. But if there's one thing I'd change here, it'd be the fact that you didn't reraise on the flop.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I missed this earlier: NOT CAPPING THE FLOP HERE IS IMMORAL.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been amazed that no one else made this observation. Given top set on the flop with nothing more than a flush draw, I'd be cheering if someone raised me. He may well be trying to find out where he is. You'll know that if he folds after you raise. But if there's one thing I'd change here, it'd be the fact that you didn't reraise on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you ppl read??? at least 3/4 ppl have suggested rearaising the flop ... its only been bet/raised 1time, so you'd be putting in the 3rd bet which isn't a cap

at least the following have said 3betting is mandatory
myself
kasu
jaran
ollie

please think before you post