Discounting Outs

[KenProspero]

I apologize in advance. Played this hand the other night, and didn't save it, so I'm reconstructing from memory. Main question is how others would rate this hand post flop.

Was trying to figure out how many outs (and what to do) in the following situation (don't have actual hand history, so am recreating).

Single-Table NL Tourney, Early. Game is Very Loose.

Hero sits SB and is dealt 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Before Hero acts, 4 people call. With big blind and my small blind, I'm getting 11-1 on a suited connector, so it's clearly worth the call.

Flop comes down 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I get 15 possible outs -- 9 Diamonds, 3 Sevens (7d for the straight flush is already counted), and 3 Twos (Likewise, 2d is already accounted for).

However, some of these outs may be counterfeit (for example, anyone else with 2 diamonds), also, there's a slim possibility of higher straight draws.

I'm first to act. What would people do here? Check? Bet? How much.

I wimped out and checked. BB bets Minimum. Another player bets about 1/3 the pot, which is raised by the time it gets to me.

I'm getting about better than 3-1 for a call, and not much lower than that if I push and a couple of people call. Given the paltry number of chips I would have If I call and lose, it's a clear push or fold.

So, here're the questions -- How many outs do you rate this hand, and what would you do?

[onealx4]

Hard to answer this question because the looser the table is, the tighter I get. I would have folded this from the SB in a heartbeat so I dont get stuck but if I did play this then I would fold it... too early in the tourney and too many wild cards raising and your first to act from here on out.. Fold..

[mart_ph]

Early in the game I just wouldn't have called this preflop.

But seeing as you did, the flop couldn't really have helped you out much more... so if you played the hand preflop, why not play it now? I'd bet the pot, and fold to a reraise?

Your indecision is the exact reason why these kind of hands aren't worth playing at all early on - unless you get totally committed and play aggressively post flop.

[KenProspero]

Thanks for the advice.

FWIW

I really didn't feel calling was an option here. At this stage, the call would have been more than 2/3 of my chips, so I felt it was all or nothing.

As I prefaced, I think it was really an exercise in counting outs. My feel was that if I hit the straight I would win the pot, that there was an outside shot that I'd win with the flush (better than one in nine (since the straight flush draw would certainly win). I figured it as about 25%.

That being said, I ultimately rated the hand at about 9 - 10 outs. Making it a slightly favorable play. (In retrospect, this early in the game, I probably needed better odds to stay in than what I had).

In any event, for what it's worth, I pushed all-in. Three followed, and when the cards were turned up, I was the only one with two diamonds. Diamond on the turn, and Hero wins the pot.

Overall, based on what I'm reading, I think I chalk this up to getting lucky with bad play (and therefore forfeiting my rights to complain about my next 4 or 5 bad beats).

[mart_ph]

[ QUOTE ]
I chalk this up to getting lucky with bad play (and therefore forfeiting my rights to complain about my next 4 or 5 bad beats).


[/ QUOTE ]

I wish I could remember these kind of hands when I get a bad beat!!! Good on you!

[Scuba Chuck]

IMO, I think the advice here is terrible. I don't think the advice you should have folded PF, but since you didn't you should call/push is sound advice. IMHO, it's atrocious.

I think your complete of the 45 suited is a fine call PF. If you flop a monster, or complete a straight (especially if the 45 is the middle), you will be rewarded handsomely. And perhaps, the flush could pay off.

The mistake is that you haven't defined your post flop strategy yet. It is important that you have a post flop strategy before you make these kinds of calls. So define your postflop strategy.

You have a straight draw. You have a small card flush draw. That's what you have. What is the best strategy post flop to play this hand? First, if you can ride an open-ended straght draw for cheap, implied odds suggest that you will be paid handsomely over the long run - as it is most likely not seen, especially in low limit SNGs. Second, you need to be wary of a better flush draw.

In this specific example, your PF call is fine. With so much action on the flop, you can assume someone has a better flush draw. I think you could also assume someone has KKs or AAs or someone hit a set. Essentially, I think it's safe to assume that it's unsafe to play here.

Either way, I think in SNG play, the best post flop strategy given your set of circumstances is to avoid a lot of action and fold.

Be wary of the bad advice, Scuba

[mart_ph]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, I think the advice here is terrible. I don't think the advice you should have folded PF, but since you didn't you should call/push is sound advice. IMHO, it's atrocious.


[/ QUOTE ]

Scuba: on reflection - you're right. Crap advice on my part!! Sorry - this is a lesson learnt... I shouldn't post to the forum when I've just woken up!

The push would have been wrong, but we'll have to agree to disagree on the intial play. I would have def folded pre-flop early in the game.

[Scuba Chuck]

Mart, I think it's fine if your PF strategy is to fold hands that will keep you out of trouble. At least, that's what I sense is what you're saying.

If so, then say, "for me, I don't have a post flop strategy to effectively extract chips from players if I don't hit the straight on the flop. So, I don't play these hands."

But I find it severely detrimental to post general 'advice' saying this is a hand to fold PF.

Finally, I humbly respect your admission to crap advice.

[texasrattlers]

[ QUOTE ]
With so much action on the flop, you can assume someone has a better flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to disagree with this. I think your flush draw is very live here and will be the nuts if it hits (of course I can say this w/ extra confidence since I know the results /images/graemlins/smile.gif). But just analyzing the situation:

You have 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Only 11 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif left in the deck. Chances of any player being dealt two /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is about 4.5%. And there are only 5 other players in the hand. The fact that they are in the hand does not signifcantly raise the chances that they are holding suited cards since people limp w/ a lot of different cards than suited.

Also, looking at it empirically, what percentage of times has your low ranked flush actually lost to a bigger flush. For me I would say it is less than 10%.

So, I think you made a good play by pushing.

[Scuba Chuck]

Okay, I decided to run your scenario through a poker odds calculator. I made the worst possible scenario for you. I also assumed you only had 3 allins, and the BB folded his miniraise.

Let's say one caller has KK (no diamonds)
Let's say the other caller has 88
And your hand is 45 diamonds. Results calculated post flop.

These are the results

88 54% probability of winning
45 42% probability of winning
KK 4% probability of winning

In retrospect, this is pretty darn close to a coinflip. Much closer than I thought. So, if you make the assumption Texas Rattlers suggests, that there is only a 5% probability someone has a higher flush draw, then this is a slightly better allin/call than I had given it credit for.

So, here is me eating my words. Given the total chip amount it's probably a good call.

I think advice could go either way on this post flop play.

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
You have 2 . Only 11 left in the deck. Chances of any player being dealt two is about 4.5%. And there are only 5 other players in the hand. The fact that they are in the hand does not signifcantly raise the chances that they are holding suited cards since people limp w/ a lot of different cards than suited.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your math using 11/52 to get the 4.5% seems flawed. You can see 5 cards so I think 11/47 is more appropriate as your starting point. Not a big change, but when you run the math all the way through (1-(1-.054)^5))) it looks like the math tells you there is a ~ 24% chance someone else has a flush draw.

Now 24% based only on the math tells you that another flush draw is unlikely, HOWEVER, you have other information to work with given the flop action (i.e. min bet, raise, re-raise), and I think the flop action should indicate that a flush draw is fairly likely.

Short story- math and likely limp hands tell me another flush draw is unlikely. Longer story- flop action (better indicator of holdings) tells me a flush draw is fairly likely.

I would discount to 7-8 outs for purposes of analyzing pot size and would generally fold with the 3:1 pot. I would assess hero's folding equity at close to zero in this circumstance at a low limit SnG.

EDIT: note- the math flaw only changes the 4.5% to 5.4% which would only change the likelihood of another flush draw from 21% to 24%, thus not a big difference. The real KEY is the betting pattern and information gained on the flop which tells HERO that the flush draw may be in trouble.

[RobbyRockets]

Well, eat your words if you must. For me, it was a very informative post. Here's why:

1. a common question (it's happened to me)
2. an assumption
3. counter of poker theory
4. then research
5. and the proof

IMO, well done.

[texasrattlers]

Yep, I forgot about the 3 board cards in coming up w/ my calcs. However, 2 of them are /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, which makes the liklihood of any single player holding two /images/graemlins/diamond.gif even less (3.3%).

Just as importantly, I think the scenario that Scuba came up with for your opponents hands (KK, 88) is more likely. The betting pattern does not seem to indicate other flush draws.

[mart_ph]

[ QUOTE ]
But I find it severely detrimental to post general 'advice' saying this is a hand to fold PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

I may only be a beginner in most eyes, but I'm yet to read any tournament articles, or postings on this group which say that this hand is not a hand to fold EARLY in an sng. I know it's in the SB, but I was merely recounting what i have learnt from other sources as well as this forum.

Sorry if you think this is detrimental.

[scooby]

omigosh...the advice earlier was absolutely terrible. Call preflop 100% of the time. If you can't play this hand in a multiway pot, stop playing poker. Then, you can either lead out and then push all in over a raise, or just checkraise big. The *ONLY* time you're in trouble is if you get called by a bigger flush draw and a set...hence the push to get a slightly bigger flush draw to fold You don't give a lickety split if AA or KK is out there and limped for some reason. Against only one caller, you're only worried about a set, and still that's about 58-42. Dead money. Lastly, this is not a bad beat. In a multiway pot, as long as you get the other flush draws out, you're fine:

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=694973
pokenum -h 9h 9s - 4d 5d - 7c 9c -- 3c 6d 8d
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 3c 8d 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 9h 240 26.58 651 72.09 12 1.33 0.272
5d 4d 452 50.06 451 49.94 0 0.00 0.501
9c 7c 199 22.04 692 76.63 12 1.33 0.227

The problem comes when you allow a hand like j /images/graemlins/diamond.gif t /images/graemlins/diamond.gif to come along. So push to get it out:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=694974
pokenum -h 9h 9s - 4d 5d - 7c 9c - jd td -- 3c 6d 8d
Holdem Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 3c 8d 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 9h 183 22.32 625 76.22 12 1.46 0.230
5d 4d 161 19.63 659 80.37 0 0.00 0.196
9c 7c 199 24.27 609 74.27 12 1.46 0.250
Jd Td 265 32.32 555 67.68 0 0.00 0.323