I can't win on Friday's or Saturday's (low content)

[bball904]

Does anyone track their performance by day of the week. If so, shouldn't the weekend be more profitable? That's what logic suggests, but my results sure don't. I know it is probably mostly a sample size issue, but does anyone have any other thoughts what issues I might be having?

These are my results in $55 sng's on Party by weekday.

Day___ Tourney Profit ROI
Monday___ 132 $4240 58.4
Tuesday__ 152 $590 7.1
Wednesday 98 $1560 28.9
Thursday_ 108 $1010 17.0
Friday___ 111 ($605) -9.9
Saturday_ 70 ($850) -22.1
Sunday___ 41 $345 15.3

[lacky]

hmm...this is all just a guess. The weekend games are made up much more by loose aggressive type people. Playing against these players does increase variance. I'm also thinking you could be fairly aggressive yourself and are struggling on these games becouse these players are unbluffable for the most part. They will come over the top with crap all the time. Like I said, it's all guesses, but at least you can consider it.

Steve

[Mr_J]

I know you already have considered this, but I wouldn't count it as anything BUT variance. Look at monday.

[Irieguy]

Statistically speaking, your graph is the same as playing one SNG on each day and then wondering why you have a -100% ROI on some days and a +500% ROI on others.

Once you play 500 more SNGs on each day your results will look a lot different.

Irieguy

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
Statistically speaking, your graph is the same as playing one SNG on each day and then wondering why you have a -100% ROI on some days and a +500% ROI on others.

[/ QUOTE ]

a bit of an overstatement?

[bball904]

Clearly an overstatement! 500% ROI is unattainable.

[bball904]

Also, "statistically speaking", that's a ridiculous statement. Maybe "figuratively speaking", it would work well.

[Irieguy]

Literally speaking, yes. But in terms of understanding statistical power, I think it's helpful to see my point.

Plenty of people think that flipping a coin twice has double the statistical power of flipping a coin once. But the information you get from that experiment is useless if you want to know the liklihood of flipping heads... regardless of whether you flip it once or twice. People tend to get upset when their aces get cracked... but when they get cracked twice in row they believe that they just witnessed a statistical anomaly the likes of which have never been witnessed before in poker history.

My opinion is that in order to be a successful SNG player, you have to have a firm grasp of the limited relevant statistical measures that we discuss on this forum. Failure to grasp these concepts will lead to a misinterpretation of your own results and subsequent changes in behavior or psychology that can adversely affect your play.

This post is a perfect example: "I can't win on Fridays or Saturdays." Now, I understand that the title is just a tongue-in-cheek reference to a funny little blip on a spreadsheet... but it's arbitrary and unhelpful nonetheless. Do you think that kind of thought running through your mind next weekend will help you play better?

There's a word for poorly applied statistics: "superstition." If you want to make money from an endeavor that most of the world regards as just gambling, you cannot afford to be superstitious. One table selection technique that has always worked in live poker is to look for the table with the most garbage on it: card-protectors, chip-toppers, lucky trinkets, double-barrelled cocktail holders, money clips, etc. Poker heaven is to be counting your outs while everybody else is doing a rain dance.

Irieguy

[codewarrior]

The vast majority of my winnings comes from Friday through Sunday nights.

Your sample size is small, but I'll venture a guess that you have trouble adjusting your style to weaker players, hence your difficulty.

[rachelwxm]

I think you could use Analysis of Variance(ANOVA) to answer your question statistically. And that would need your exact pnl for each game. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[bball904]

Irie,

Excellent reply. I agree with that 100%.

The intent of my original post was not that I was losing confidence on particular days of the week, but rather fishing to get any feedback on how game conditions might be different on the weekends. I also stated that I knew the majority of the explanation was the sample size and I have a firm grasp on the statistical relevance. As a matter of fact, my degree is in Statistics.

I do feel that a bit of the explanation for my Saturday performance is that I am not as focused on sng's on the weekend. Mon thru Fri I am pretty much a 95-100% sng player, but I venture into multi tables and ring games more on the weekends. I'm beginning to think there is some relevance to that in the results I am seeing.