Post flop equity chart? Pot equity question.

[droolie]

In a recent post I tried to calculate pot equity against a preflop reraiser (or miscalculated more like it.) I was trying to argue that in certain situations it might be a good idea to call down until the river without challenging the bettor by raising for information or whatever in any way. My gut tells me that many of the lines we recommend in this forum have us folding to semi-bluff aggression too often but there's no easy way to quantify this. My question is does anybody have a nice system for making pot equity estimates on the fly.

One of the things that this exercise has taught me is that since there is a very specific range of hands most players will raise with pf you can calculate your equity based on the number of hands you beat versus the number of hands you lose to. My suggestion is that we could develop a chart that provides a range of hands that shows the likely range of hands that are being raised as defined by their pfagg level. Therefore someone with a 3%pf agg would likely be raising with one set of hands and somone with a 6% would have more and 10% even more. What would these ranges look like? Has anybody seen anything like this before?

Why a chart? Just like with preflop its a handy crutch you can use until you can ween yourself off of it.

This chart could have easy to remember rules about how to discount combinations based on the cards in your hand and on the board.

Does this idea have any merit or is it just too complicated and narrow in focus to be worthwhile. It clearly doesn't factor in flush and str8 considerations enough but I think it could give one a good idea if calling down based on pot size will be profitable. I'm especially intrigued by this concept as i consider going to 6-max because it seems like a much more valuable concept HU.

AA(6)(3)(1)*------------KK--QQ--JJ--1010 Total Pairs 30
AK(16)(12)(9)(8)(6)**---KQ
AQ
AJ
A10

*Pocket Pairs have 6 possible combos, 3 if one is revealed and 1 if two are revealed.

*** Non-Pocket pairs have 16 combos, 12 if one is revealed, 9 if one of each is revealed, 8 if two of the same are revealed, and 6 if 3 are revealed (2 and 1 mix), four if three of the same are revealed.

For instance this chart could show us AK is behind 24 hands that would be raised pf but ahead of 60, 48, 32, 28 depending on how agg the pfr% of villian. It may not be worthwhile to use in game next to the computer but might be worth studying a bit on the side. It would clearly show why mucking KQ pf against a raise is a no-brainer.

[Shillx]

Okay so as an example.

UTG I raise: AA-TT, AKo-AJo, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, KQo

This amounts to 7.7% of all possible hands.

So in order to call someone who raises 7.7% of all hands you need to beat the minimum standards of the raiser. You should only call me (in a heads up situation) with QQ+, AKo, AQs+ (there about). If you throw in more people, then you can add more hands.

Brad

[Smasharoo]

Does this idea have any merit


Nope.

[LethalRose]

[ QUOTE ]

Does this idea have any merit


Nope.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. because...

If you know what type of hands your opponents are playing, you can in effect play a little tighter and beat them PF. Add to this causious play with certain boards you can win 70+% of the hands you play against them.

For example..
Texas Hold'em, 100000 combinations tested.

Hand 1:
Range of hands: AA , KK , QQ , JJ , AKs

Hand 2:
Range of hands: AA , KK , QQ , JJ , TT , 99 , AKs, AQs
AJs, ATs, KQs, KJs, QJs, JTs, AKo, AQo

Hand | 1 | 2 |
------+--------------+--------------+
Win | 63554 | 33045 |
Draw | 3401 | 3401 |
Lose | 33045 | 63554 |
------+--------------+--------------+
Win% | 65.25% | 34.75% |
------+--------------+--------------+


Hand no.1:
High Card win: 633 draw: 368 lose: 1740
Pair win: 19930 draw: 1280 lose: 15988
Two Pair win: 24000 draw: 987 lose: 12807
Three of a Kind win: 8579 draw: 49 lose: 1368
Straight win: 857 draw: 556 lose: 174
Flush win: 2269 draw: 74 lose: 370
Full House win: 6640 draw: 83 lose: 586
Quads win: 629 draw: 3 lose: 12
Straight Flush win: 17 draw: 1 lose: 0


Hand no.2:
High Card win: 0 draw: 368 lose: 10787
Pair win: 8527 draw: 1280 lose: 30702
Two Pair win: 10020 draw: 987 lose: 18236
Three of a Kind win: 5266 draw: 49 lose: 1957
Straight win: 2229 draw: 556 lose: 327
Flush win: 2899 draw: 74 lose: 505
Full House win: 3614 draw: 83 lose: 1031
Quads win: 448 draw: 3 lose: 9
Straight Flush win: 42 draw: 1 lose: 0

By selecting only premium hands (group 1) Player 1 has a huge edge over player 2, who is playing slightly loser (groups 1+2)

knowing where you're opponents fall in this category is very crucial to taking their money.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1:
Range of hands: AA , KK , QQ , JJ , AKs

Hand 2:
Range of hands: AA , KK , QQ , JJ , TT , 99 , AKs, AQs
AJs, ATs, KQs, KJs, QJs, JTs, AKo, AQo


[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, but now how do you actually apply this to any real situation? Are you going to look at your hand and say "I have JJ against a raiser who would raise (list of hands). I therefore have 65-35 preflop equity and so should raise cap"? I would say, "This guy seems like he's a moderate raiser, and so 3-betting JJ isn't a bad idea" (or "This guy is a complete rock - there's no way I'm playing JJ here.")

I think I agree that this has merely theoretical merit (in that you can see how ranges of hands play against each other), but that it's hard to apply specifically these results usefully to any given hand.

The original question:

[ QUOTE ]
My question is does anybody have a nice system for making pot equity estimates on the fly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Making preflop equity estimates aren't that useful - things change too dramatically on the flop a rough feeling. You can have a simple system (AKs = always a monster, JTs = good multiway, 87o = always bad), but beyond this, it's too much work for too little gain.

If you had a system for seeing postflop equity quickly, it would be more useful... but this is exactly knowing your outs!

[illunious]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm especially intrigued by this concept as i consider going to 6-max because it seems like a much more valuable concept HU.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I understand correctly, this is definitely more valuable in HU play. Once you start adding players, there's more to take into account than a list of hands one guy might be raising.

[droolie]

The idea really formed as I realized I was using pokertracker stats to help me with my pre and post flop decisions a lot. High VP$IP means more value betting, against a villian with high pfr% means I'm reraising more hands pf to isolate. The idea of being able to put your hand in the spectrum of hands villian is likely to have and seeing where you are could really be valuable. When I wrote this post I was hoping someone would provide a link to an already made chart that gives this type of info.

Seeing as how there's no link yet I guess I'll try to figure this out.

Here's where I need math help...

There are 1326 hands so this means that each pfr% accounts for ~13 hands.

I'd like to break the hands down by order of pfr-raise likelyhood.


Here are the M&S levels

Group 1 Hands (28 combinations) accounts for 2% of pfr
AA(6), KK(6), QQ(6), JJ(6) AKs(4)
(if someone only raised AA & KK their pfr% would be 1%)

Group 2 Hands (32 combinations) with above accounts for ~5% of pfr%
TT(6), AQs(4), AJs(6), KQs(4), AK(12)

Group 3 Hands (34 combinations) with above accounts for 7% of pfr%
99(6), JTs(4), QJs(4), KJs(4), ATs(4), AQ(12)

Group 4 Hands (50 combinations) with above accounts for 11% of pfr%
T9s(4), KQ(12), 88(6), Q10s(4), 98s(4), J9s(4), AJ(12), K10s(4)

Group 5 Hands (98 combinations) with above accounts for 18% of pfr%
77(6), 87s(4), Q9s(4), T8s(4), KJ(12), QJ(12), JT(12), 76s(4), 97s(4), Axs(32), 65s (4)

I think at this point going further would be unuseful. Players who raise more than 18% pf will have to wait for their range I guess. Since this is somewhat rare it can wait. I do think the list of hands in this 18% can include some off the list though and we can take some off that are evry unlikely to be raised. The smaller suited connectors should be replaced with offsuit broadway and lower pocket pairs.

Hands Not included...(54 total)
66(6), 55(6), 44(6), 33(6), 22(6), KT(12), QT(12)

Hands I think should be removed...(48 hands)
T9s(4), 98s(4), J9s(4), 87s(4), Q9s(4), T8s(4), JT(12) 76s(4), 97s(4), 65s(4)

This leaves at total of 248 hands that are reasonable to see raised pf 18.7%. Now if we can order them by pfr likelihood we can break them down into % groups and we have something!

This is where there is much room for debate...the higher the % the less accurate the range will be. I will therefore make groups slightly bigger.

1% Group (12)
AA, KK

2% Group (24)
add QQ, JJ, AKs

3% Group (40)
add AK, AQs

4% Group (54)
add AJs, KQs, TT

5% Group (64)
add AQ

7% Group (96)
add 99, ATs, AQ, KJs, QJs, KQ

10% Group (136)
add AJ, KTs, 88, 77, KJ

14% Group (178)
AT, A9s, A8s, A7s, 66, 55

18% Group (248)
add 44, 33, 22, A6s, A5s, A4s, A3s, A2s, KT, QT, Q10s, J9s

How is any of this usueful? If someone raises UTG 4% but will steal with 18% you have a good idea of where you're at. If someone is good with spreadsheets I'd really like to see what could be done with these numbers as this post is crappy as hell.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
How is any of this usueful?

[/ QUOTE ]

It isn't. This is one of those times where your brain needs to do some work and you can't get around it. PT gives you generalities about a player, but it's not good at getting specific (what hands is he raising in EP, MP, LP, etc). A PFR number only tells you when something is really out of the norm (ie, 0 = rock).

Think of it like VPIP, only with far fewer gradings. How much can you tell from a the VPIP of some MP limper? If VPIP = 100, it means that he can have anything. If VPIP = 10, then he might be a rock. But try to figure out something useful with a VPIP between 20 and 35. You can't really do it. You've got to play poker and figure it out as you go.

[LethalRose]

Pot equity does not exist preflop (that i know of)
EV postflop does..

Having better kickers is always good, it improves your overcard outs if they are playing 1 pair aggressive.

it allows you to judge if your kicker is good. say i have AQ in CO and the button reraises me, if I know him to be a premium hand player i can fold and watch everyone else get beat by his better kicker.
many more applications..



heres a good thread on pot equity.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=micro&Number=1461806&Forum =f21&Words=Pot%20Equity&Searchpage=0&Limit=600&Mai n=1460235&Search=true&where=sub&Name=&daterange=1& newerval=1&newertype=w&olderval=&oldertype=&bodypr ev=#Post1461806

[droolie]

Hey man can you edit your post to remove that link. It screwed up the format of the thread.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Pot equity does not exist preflop (that i know of)
EV postflop does..

Having better kickers is always good, it improves your overcard outs if they are playing 1 pair aggressive.

it allows you to judge if your kicker is good. say i have AQ in CO and the button reraises me, if I know him to be a premium hand player i can fold and watch everyone else get beat by his better kicker.
many more applications..

heres a good thread on pot equity.


[/ QUOTE ]

When you quote a URL, don't use the URL as the text of the quote. Use "this post" or something similar so that it doesn't make everything hard to read.

So pot equity in a preflop situation would be exactly what was computed above. What portion of the pot do you expect to win on bets that round (preflop in this case)? If you're a 65:35 favorite, you have 65% pot equity preflop.

[LethalRose]

sry about link didnt realize it until it was too late to edit.