Fold the set here?

[SlyAK]

I thought this was a pretty easy fold, but I am a weak-tight bitch lately, largely due to my hands never holding up for the past 3 weeks.

1/2 NL online 200 buyin.

I have $191, villain has me covered. First time I've played with villain, but he seems reasonable so far. He opens for $16 in EMP. I call in MP with Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif

I put villain on AK/ AA-JJ. He seems to be the type that raises a bit more with premium hands, and more like $8 with AJ, AQ etc from my limited time at the table.

Flop: A /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Villain checks, I bet $30, and he calls.

Turn: T /images/graemlins/club.gif He checks, I check.

River: 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif Villain bets $46, I think for a while and fold. I see JJ as the only hand I am beating here, and he would probably have a hard time betting that here, given that I could easily have AK, so I think it is most likely that he has AK, or possibly KK.

Thoughts?

[TOmCowley]

If your read on the opening raise sizes is that good, then you have to fold. If you can read that a 1/2 pot bet is a value bet and not a cheap bluff attempt, you have to fold. You're definitely beat more often than not here, but you are getting 3:1 and there are hands you can beat. I'd pitch it here, but if he'd bet much smaller so you were getting 10:1, I'd call just in case he was full of it.

KK seems unlikely for him (because he called a pot bet on the flop), and he should have bet out or raised the flop with AQ/AJ. He could be trapping with AA/JJ, even though it's pretty bad on that board. AK seems like the most likely hand for him, both statistically and from the play. If the guy's terrible though, I think you have to call because he'll flip up AT/AJ/AQ/QJ more than often enough.

[okayplayer]

Yeah, I'd fold that too. Not too many hands that you're beating here except JJ, whereas he probably would have check-raised you on the flop.