My Thoughts on this Weekends NFL Playoff Games...

[Big Al]

Here are my thoughts on each game this weekend:

Minn @GB (-6): Packers have beaten the Vikes twice already this season. Its hard to beat a team three times in one season. With the Vikes backing into the playoffs and the game at GB, I think this is a game to stay far away from.

Denver at Indy (-10): As I stated in an earlier post about these 2 teams (before they played this past Sunday) history tends to repeat itself. Indy obviously didnt try on Sunday and Dungy even made comments afterward about how they were monitoring the scoreboard and implied they wanted to face Denver in the first round. Indy blew out Denver last year in an almost identical situation as this, and I dont expect anything different. Take Indy and give the 10, its Big Al's SHoe In of the Week.

NY at SD (-6): As I stated in an earlier post about the postseason, upsets tend to happen in the first round. The team with the better defense also seems to win. I think this is a spot where an upset could happen. I think NY has the better defense and Schottenheimer's playoff record is spotty. The money line on the Jets is plus 220 and I think it warrents a play.

St. Louis at Seattle (-4): As I said earlier, its tough to beat a team 3 times in a row. The Rams have beaten the Seahawks twice already, and with Seattle at home I look for them to win and cover in this spot.

Summary: Shoe In of the Week: Indy minus 10
Upset/Money Line Play (dont go overboard though: NY Jets
Not the Shoe In but worth a decent bet: Seattle minus 4
Game to Stay Away From: Minn at GB.

Those are my thohgts, best of luck.--Big Al--

[niwotyalpi]

I like your pick of the Colts. I think that game is gonna get ugly. Denver's defense is pretty shoddy and I see Manning and company steam rolling Denver right out of the dome.

[ftball0000]

thanks Big Al /images/graemlins/grin.gif

-Ftball

[MicroBob]

ESPN reported that in matchups where a team had a chance to beat another team for a 3rd time (in the playoffs of course) the team that was 2-0 in the regular season went on to complete the sweep 10 out of 15 times.

I believe the idea that 'it's tough to beat a team 3x' is bandied about because it sounds good. Not because there is actually any truth to it.

I don't know why a team should be considered more likely to win just because they LOST to the other team in the previous 2 matchups but it does seem to be the prevailing wisdom.


I'm not arguing against your picks. I'm just debating this particular aspect of sports-lore.


Is there any reason why you didn't post these picks in the sports-betting forum?

[Waterproof]

I am fan of the shoe in, and I'll probably play it this week.

BUT it seems like a lot of points. This is a 20 pt. line swing from last week when I didn't play Denver and should have. The reason I like this game is that the Colts knew that with a loss, they would be playing Denver so they have been preparing for this game for two weeks. They were also able to sit back and watch Denver play their A game last week without having to give up any of their strategy. Anyway, the line opened around 7, and this is where I think it should be.

“Defense wins Championships” – Where is Indy’s?

Just my thoughts… Hope you win.

[Easy E]

The Jets call was a good one.

So much for the "can't beat the same team 3 times" theory (or my "dome team not winning first game of season on road outdoors" analysis)
I'll forgive you for that one, since you moved me off of the Jets spread to the ML instead. I was cursing you out (and making plans to find a certain NYJ linebacker and crush his toes) /images/graemlins/mad.gif but all was forgiven when the rookie missed the FG /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Is it feasible to bet against a coach because he's cursed? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[renodoc]

AL-

I don't know you, and you don'know me, but YOU DA MAN.

Thanks for the Jets and Colts....

[Big Al]

Thanks, I appreciate it. Sorry about the Seahawks-Holmgren should be fired. With the Shoe In and the Jets money line bet, that should have more than made up for the Seattle game, I know it did for me. Will have my analysis/picks for next weekends games later in the week. Note to Easy E-will respond to your e-mail later also. I have been sick the past few days, had a fever of 103, thought I was going to die. Finally feeling better but still not 100%. Talk to you later.--Big Al--

[Easy E]

<font color="grenn"> I have been sick the past few days, had a fever of 103, thought I was going to die. Finally feeling better but still not 100% </font>

So, you'll be perfect for next weekend when you're healthy, correct? Since I owe 2.5 units of profit to you for your picks this weekend, I think I'll survive /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[pologuy64]

Yo Big Al, your the man
Thanks for the winners THis Week, u made Me some Good MONEY,