Chip spewing madness?!

[shadow29]

Villain is 24%, 12%, 1.60

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (6.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

[topspin]

If you're going to check the turn and call a bet on the river, I think I'd prefer to bet the turn and take a free showdown. If villain is a semidecent player and doesn't have a Q, you may be able to get him to lay down hands that beat or tie you. If you get check-raised, you can lay it down pretty safely.

After checking the turn, you're hoping you induced a river bluff because all you beat now are unimproved broadways like AK or AJ.

[DeathDonkey]

Bet the turn, fold to a checkraise. If he just calls I think you have a river value bet. I play the flop the same.

-DeathDonkey

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
If he just calls I think you have a river value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the river card, what hand does he call with that hero beats?

[Fiddler]

Over how many hands are those stats? I wonder because 12% PFR seems to be very high for a full ring player. If it was in the 7-9% range he probably raised with AQ, KQ, AJ and maybe he doesn't cap with AK but with 12%...

I think I would bet this turn since if he doesn't have a queen what he does have probably includes an ace or a king and you don't want to give a free card. Fold if he check-raises since I doubt anyone with 1.6 post-flop AF makes many bluff raises and then check behind on the river. You should probably fold the river if he bets it... but I'm not sure I could do it myself. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[DeathDonkey]

Every pocket pair between 66 and TT non-inclusive. I've seen stubborn AK call crap they shouldn't too.

[shadow29]

His stats are over appx. 50 hands. Empirically, they are pretty accurate.

[shadow29]

I guess the consensus is to bet the turn. Anyway, in this hand I saved myself a bet (or lost the pot).

He turns over KK?

MHING.

[Milky]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, in this hand I saved myself a bet (or lost the pot).

[/ QUOTE ]

Doubtful. Would you fold KK in his shoes?

[shadow29]

No, but depends on what he put me on. Party players are weird.

[Shillx]

Looks good to me. I like the turn check actually. If the villian has AA/KK he will not check/raise (fearing a queen) you so then what to do on the river?? Do you value bet against AK or a smaller pair? Do you take the free showdown?

This way you can induce a bluff from AK or a small pair, and save a bet against a hand that beats you. There are downsides, but others have mentioned them.

Brad

[DMBFan23]

against this particular loose raiser (as far as we are inclined to trust his stats) I might be more worried about giving a free card to an ace or a king. I use this check behind trick more and more though, with hands where I dont mind as much giving a free card.

[Milky]

The average PP player thinks kings are GOLDEN and will call to the river on much worse boards.