Questions about doubling up early...

[Mr_J]

I realize that a stack twice as large is not worth twice as much (ie EV goes down a bit). Can someone point me to any discussion about the effects it has on hourly rate though? You either double or bust, meaning that you should be able to put in a higher number of sngs per hour.

Also, this doubling up assumes players of equal skill level? Wouldn't it be possible that a double stack is worth more to a player who can outplay the rest of the table? This would mean being able to judge how good you are vs a typical table at a certain buyin level.

Problem with trying to double up early is that I'm not sure it can be done effectively anyway. If you go out hunting for a double up each sng, then you'll probally start playing certain hands more aggressively than you should (since you are trying to double up early each sng), and get into to many 40-60 situations.

Not looking for any posts just stating I shouldn't do it, because I don't. Just curious I guess (I like to know everything).

[David04]

I assume it would kill your hourly rate. Just because you double doesn't guarantee a win or even a finish ITM...

[Mr_J]

According to an ICM calculater someone with double the chips will do *nearly* twice as well (that's what it calculates right? % of prize money would will win on average). I don't see how that could kill an hourly rate, just lower it a bit?

BTW, doubling up obviously doesn't guarantee anything, but if you do successfully double up you should be able to place more often.

[David04]

[ QUOTE ]
According to an ICM calculater someone with double the chips will do *nearly* twice as well (that's what it calculates right? % of prize money would will win on average). I don't see how that could kill an hourly rate, just lower it a bit?

[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe I exaggerated a bit...it would definitely hurt your rate though. I would just stick to your normal SNG strategy...

[Mr_J]

"I would just stick to your normal SNG strategy..."

I am. Just interesting in seeing some numbers or detailed discussion.

[David04]

[ QUOTE ]
"I would just stick to your normal SNG strategy..."

I am. Just interesting in seeing some numbers or detailed discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah I don't know if this would work out too well..although it might be worth trying, as long as you are playing at a lower level than you currently played. It certainly would be interesting to see how things would pan out.

[morgan180]

Mr_J I remember there being a discussion thread about this a while ago which was talking about how doubling up early didn't give you the guaranteed ITM/ROI results necessary to take on the risk of trying to force it with less than premium hands.

I'll see if I can find it, although I am sure that AleoMagus, rachelwxm, eastbay or others could point you to it as well.

[Mr_J]

To know whether you could get a more $ per hour, you'd need to know how it affects ROI per sng, and whether the more regular bustouts more than make up for any drop in ROI per sng.

Think it will affect everyone differently, and for some it might be profitable and for others it won't be. Reminds me of a post by Gigabet saying he liked to double up early to bully the table, where most people disagreed (with this particular hand anyway) but hey it works for him.

[tallstack]

I don't have a link to any old discussions on this topic, but I did do a little data crunching on my own stats when I started at Party SNGs several months ago that relates to your question. I wanted to show to myself whether the chips I won early were worth more or less than the chips I lost early. I tracked my chip level after 10 hands for about 175 tourneys - most all at the $11 level on Party. I grouped my chip totals into bins and compared this to my average payout for the given chip total bin. For my stats, the increase in expectation with chip count was pretty linear. Even though my sample size was not that large I still think it told me what I wanted to know - basically not to fear that the chips I lose early would be worth more than the chips I gain. It did cause me to push in a few more situations early, but really didn't change much of how I play. Like you said, I think you can only go far in looking for early double up situations.

IMO, I think that you could find a slight increase in hourly rate for someone who pushes more early advantages, as opposed to someone who fears early confrontations, but I don't think that small changes in how you play early on are really going to make that much of a difference to hourly rate. I would be interested in hearing how others feel about this though.

Dave S

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
According to an ICM calculater someone with double the chips will do *nearly* twice as well

[/ QUOTE ]

where can i find one of these fancy icm calculators?

[sofere]

IMO in the low limits (i play 5.50 on Stars right now but have heard the 11s are almost identical) looking to double up early probably won't improve your hourly rate that much.

I find it near impossible to bully in the first 3 levels because people will call or reraise almost automatically if they have the slightest belief that you are trying to steal. Then by the time you get to the bubble, the field has generally caught up to your large stack.

If I happen to double up early, I play pretty rockish and protect my chips until I get to the bubble, then gnaw away at the small stacks. This will also give you a pretty tight table image so people will generally respect your steal attempts at the later levels (at least at first).

Then again, if your playing at the 5.50s or 11s your probably not looking specifically for a high hourly rate.

[Irieguy]

Remember that your earn per SNG (ROI) is going to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.2-0.3 buy-ins. That means that any effort you make to increase your SNG per hour rate can only increase your hourly earn rate to a similar degree.

Winning a SNG, on the other hand, represents a 4.7-4.8 buy-in increased earn above average for that SNG. So winning an extra SNG has 15-20 times as much influence on your earn rate than playing an extra SNG would. I think this is a critically important SNG concept to grasp. Winning is the most important thing.

So all strategic decisions you make, and every strategic adjustment you make needs to have at its foundation the goal of increasing your percentage of first place finishes. Does pushing marginal edges early in a zealous attempt to double-up increase your chances of finishing first? The answer to this question is absolutely, positively, NO. I know there is some debate about this, but I am sure that you cannot increase your first place percentage by playing more hands in the early rounds. This fact can be proven both logically and mathematically... but should be the topic of another discussion.

The bottom line is that you need to maximize your chances of finishing first if you want to increase your earn rate. No other factor will have as large an influence as that. Trying to double up early by playing other than top-value hands will not accomplish that goal.

Irieguy