One of Those Days : AA in MP

[GuyOnTilt]

EP in this hand is a 24/7.5/58 with 1.5./1.4/1.2 AF's after over 2k hands. BB is 27/9.8/48 with 2.1/2.7/2.2 after over 4k hands.

We're 9 handed at a averagely loose and far more than averagely passive 15/30 table. UTG folds, UTG+1 limps. Two folds to me with A /images/graemlins/club.gifA /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Folded around to the CO who cold-calls, BB calls, EP calls. 4 to the flop for 8.5 SB's.

Flop comes: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Checked to me, I bet. CO folds, BB raises, EP cold-calls, I call. 3 to the turn for 7.2 BB's.

Turn comes: K /images/graemlins/club.gif

BB bets, EP calls, I call.

GoT

[Thomsen]

you should have reraised the flop.

No specific notes on BB after 4000 hands ? god he must be boringly abc huh ?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

i assume your intentions were to raise the turn but the top card pairing screwed your plans. it happens.

[Thomsen]

would you call the river ?

[AviD]

GoT:

What do you have BB and especially EP on here with an otherwise drawless board, if not a K (on an otherwise passive table).

I understand the flop play, and the K kills that...but you either have the best hand here or are severely behind. I guess you figure you are getting 10:1 on the call and 15:1 on your river call those times its good and BB+EP are just firing with no K.

I am just not clear on if you think you are behind, and what your river plan is. I'm guessing with BB firing and EP calling, you plan on raising the river if BB bets and EP calls again (and folding to a 3-bet), but only calling if BB checks and EP comes alive and bets (or making some masterful fold, but I couldn't/wouldn't).

If not that line, I can't understand the turn call but am interested in your thought process here, as you have quite a bit more experience in this game than I do.

[stoxtrader]

I Would auto 3 bet that flop action and am interested why you did not.

[GuyOnTilt]

I Would auto 3 bet that flop action and am interested why you did not.

I was planning to raise the turn. I'm interested in hearing opinions on that, hopefully with numbers to support, as well as opinions on what I should do on the turn and what I should do if I 3-bet the flop.

GoT

[Thomsen]

Well there is a potential risk that EP will fold to a turnbet from BB. He is almost 100 % not folding to your 3 bet on the flop and you are very likely to have him beat unless he limped with 66...

If you reraised the flop and BB still bets out on the turn I wouldnt be as afraid as i would be if he checked it...

[stoxtrader]

analyzing a 3 handed turn situation with amth all the way to the river will contain to many assumptions to make it worthwhile - I think anyway.

I think both my line and yours is viable. I play it my way for a couple of reasons: top pair is very unlikely to fold to a flop raise, but more likely to fold to a turn raise. Also, EP could certainly have a set here. given his stats and based on card frequency, I would put him on KQ or 66 - he doesnt 3 bet the flop casue it would face you with two and he doesnt want to lose a customer. Raising the turn would be exactly the thing he is hoping you will do.

If both opponents have 5 outers raising the flop gets money in when you are ahead, but its less money. However, raising the turn after giving your opponents a shot at a five outer will get you an extra SB/person when the miss, but cost you up to two BB when they hit. I could do the math on that, but vs 2 5 outers I think a flop raise is better. Besides, there will also be times where a worse hand lets you raise the turn as well, so not raising the flop simply forfeits those extra SB entirely. There will also be times someone was taking a stab at it and it gets checked to you on the turn, if that is the case, you will have wised you raised the flop as again you will have wished you raised the flop.

I understand the idea of sacrificing a small edge now in return for a larger edge on the turn - maybe I just think it applicable less often than others, I should reread ed millers section on that. In any event, there are certainly a number of things that can reduce your expectation on the turn - either because they improve your opponent's hands, they already have better hands, or you get a card that kills your action - an A or K being two examples of possible cards that kill your action.

all that said I still think its close, just that my auto-reaction is to 3 bet the flop.
what do you think?

[GuyOnTilt]

top pair is very unlikely to fold to a flop raise, but more likely to fold to a turn raise.

True, though neither of these players had the numbers to fold a playable K to a turn blank raise. But yeah, I often overlook or undervalue what you're talking about here.

Also, EP could certainly have a set here. given his stats and based on card frequency, I would put him on KQ or 66 - he doesnt 3 bet the flop casue it would face you with two and he doesnt want to lose a customer. Raising the turn would be exactly the thing he is hoping you will do.

As opposed to what? Me 3-betting the flop, him calling and check-raising the turn? Or capping the flop and betting or check-raising the turn? If I call and he does have a set, he's likely to raise the turn himself though, which he'd also possibly do with KQ or KJ, which makes it not fun for me.

raising the turn after giving your opponents a shot at a five outer will get you an extra SB/person when the miss, but cost you up to two BB when they hit.

They're seeing the turn whether I 3-bet or not.

When I have position and there's players between me and the likely turn bettor, I've been flat calling raises and 3-bets in these spots. It's just become my default play in a lot of similar situations with the right board, but I've never bothered to think hard about it really, so I guess I figured I should. My gut reaction used to be to 3-bet too, but I kind of changed that in myself I guess. Figured I should make sure though.

Another question for you:

I 3-bet the flop, both call. Checked to you on the turn. You do what with the intention of doing what for the rest of the hand?

GoT

[stoxtrader]

given that the K paired on the turn you have two choices, bet and fold to a turn c/r, or check it through and call a river bet. My default would be to bet the turn, but your two opponents in this hand are decent, so option two is very viable.

option one gets you more value when you are ahead, but risks getting pushed of a winner by a c/r from an underpair or a player who thinks the K is a bluff card (Im guessing this occurs 2-4% of the time).

option 2 you lose value from the time worse hands call you down and the times someone who folds to a turn bet improves. You dont get pushed off a worse hand here.

[JasonP530]

Stox--The difference in equity in this case is not what Ed Miller was referring to in his book. In his case, with the tens into a larger field, the strength of your hand is dictated more by the turn card. In this case, there are probably only 2(or 1) cards in the deck that are very unfavorable(the kings) so he should probably go for the immediate reraise as you suggested. I would also think that a set is unlikely to raise the flop most of the time.

[stoxtrader]

I appreciate that distinction, I may have it mixed up, but there are two different ideas here -

one is wehre the turn card dramatically affects the value of your hand - your example.

another is where a flop raise does not create incorrect odds for an opponent to chase while a turn raise does, or a flop raise creates incorrect odds, but a turn raise creates larger incorrect odds...

does that make more sense?

[bernie]

I'd raise the turn, fold to a 3 bet. You don't have the odds to call to spike a 4 outer. Although, if you're really unsure of the opponent, and with EP conspicuously calling the whole way, your call does close the action. So I can see a little bit for just calling. I still don't like it though.

If the opponent is more on the passive side, sorry but the stats are greek to me, you can likely fold to his turn bet. Would he bet anything less than a K in this spot? However, I'd have reraised the flop. But I see what you were aiming at in waiting for the turn. Problem is, the worst card showed up.

Just in case this was a passive player betting here, are you and your rockets having a big cake at your wedding? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
would you call the river ?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you call the turn, don't you kind of have to call the river? The river card likely won't change anything.

b

[DeeJ]

<font color="orange">&lt;head-above-parapet&gt; </font> I put EP on KQ and BB on 66 or some other higher pair. <font color="orange">&lt;/head-above-parapet&gt;</font>

I would reraise the flop, you are 95% ahead here surely? AK/KQ isn't going anywhere? After the K appears I'm calling down. Although the better line is probably to raise the turn and fold to a 3-bet /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
AK/KQ isn't going anywhere? After the K appears I'm calling down.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you jam the flop, the K appears, and they bet, what are you putting generally passive players on at this point?

b

[krishanleong]

I don't play this limit.

That said I really like GoT's play on the flop. This play has nothing to do with protecting your hand. He isn't trying to force anyone out by waiting untill the turn. He is trying to take advantage of the huge amount of equity he has.

Here are some things I consider when deciding whether to make this play. The board is drawless so it's unlikely to be checked to you on the turn. The board is K high and you have Aces. That means there are very few cards that could scare BB into checking. A board of J62 has to worry about scare cards much more.

The thing about this plan is you don't have to go through with it if the top card pairs on the turn. Your plan is basically based on the assumption that someone has a K. You have a good read on the two opponents. I would trust my flop read and let it go. The odds to spike an A aren't there. You are getting 11/2 effective and 9/1 on the turn. It just doesn't seem like enough.

Krishan

[roy_miami]

[ QUOTE ]
option 2 you lose value from the time worse hands call you down and the times someone who folds to a turn bet improves. You dont get pushed off a worse hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, you get to see the river where you will spike an A once in a while for the outdraw.

[GuyOnTilt]

I'd raise the turn, fold to a 3 bet.

I really don't think this is better than a call/call. I'm putting up the same amount of bets and making a lot of worse hands drawing to two outs fold (the biggest factor) and I'm missing the chance to improve on the river (a slight plus). Not saying that calling is better than folding, but I really do think it's better than raising.

As for the flop play, all the talk so far about waiting for the turn has been about protecting my hand, when really the main reason for waiting is because the chance of my winning is so insanely high against two opponents here, and my relative position is good. Again, not saying it's correct because stox brought up a couple good points against it, but the idea of protecting my hand just isn't something that needs to be considered here.

GoT

[goofball]

you collect an extra bet if you are ahead

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't think this is better than a call/call. I'm putting up the same amount of bets and making a lot of worse hands drawing to two outs fold (the biggest factor) and I'm missing the chance to improve on the river (a slight plus). Not saying that calling is better than folding, but I really do think it's better than raising.


[/ QUOTE ]

I amended a response above with calling being an option. You make some good points here. The pot is big enough that I wouldn't mind taking it here though. Yet with the board unlikely giving anyone any real draw (other than running) calling does look good.

However, if these are passive players, and they just 3 bet you on the flop on this board, and bet out on the turn, you could fold this. At least one of them likely has a K. What is EP calling all that action with given what you're representing here? So I guess it could be a fold/call situation.

[ QUOTE ]
As for the flop play, all the talk so far about waiting for the turn has been about protecting my hand, when really the main reason for waiting is because the chance of my winning is so insanely high against two opponents here, and my relative position is good. Again, not saying it's correct because stox brought up a couple good points against it, but the idea of protecting my hand just isn't something that needs to be considered here

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree it wasn't about protection. I never got that. It brings up a question as to whether you were planning on just calling the turn anyways. I think the board pairing makes calling better. If it wasn't paired, then I'd be raising. In most cases, against passive players with this kind of action, Im not seeing the river.

There are merits to capping the flop though. It can go both ways.

b