10-13-2001, 01:52 AM
Well first off, take Seattle in Game 3. Sele against Sabathia, a staff ace type pitcher against a rookie in a pressure situation. M's righted the ship quite nicely and I think they are coming to Cle with all intentions of ending it in four. Best road team in history and the road teams are tearing it up right now. All for a mere -115 to -120 price. Sure the Tribe can win, but this price seems ridiculous. If this game was in Seattle the price would be something like -210 so you are getting almost a full dollar off the price. So look here: Cleveland won 44 games at home, 47 on the road. Seattle won 59 on the road, 57 at home. As I was saying paying for home field is a waste of money and here is a great example of it. I won't pick on Sabathia because he is a capable pitcher, but I think there is a ton of pressure on the Tribe to win this game and I don't think in those circumstances you would want to be backing a rookie at an almost pick'em price.
Ok, since this is mostly football, I got that too. I have to say I am highly tempted by Atlanta. The Niners don't play well on turf and this game means more to the Falcons than the Niners traditionally. Falcons proved they could match up well with the Niners as it took a SF comeback to get the win in the first matchup. Granted no Jamal and a few banged up players for the Birds, but I think the public sentiment has too quickly jumped away. The Niners last two wins were against weaker teams than this. Further I think amazingly the Niners are showing a bit of a lack of speed on offense and its making their offense sputter. Falcons have the speed on D and the type of QB in Vick that I think could make the Niner overaggressive D-line look a little shaky. Further it seems everyone and their mother is taking SF here, those usually are good spots to go against the crowd. However I think I have a stronger POW.
Rams -10.5 over Giants
I can't find a reason not to bet this one. It goes beyond turf, it goes beyond the roll the Rams are on, its simply something I think a lot of people are missing. The Giants D doesn't have the right personnel to stop Faulk and whoever is not being covered by Sehorn is going to get picked on. The Giants beat the Chiefs and Saints because they don't have multiple receiver threats nor a receiving threat from RB. I don't think Armstead has the speed or ability to stay with Faulk and that will force the Giants to use safeties on him. Well that takes those guys out of position to play the two deep they usually go with, something they would like to use considering a rookie (Allen) probably will be covering Holt. On the other side of the ball the Rams do one thing good on defense and that is stuff the inside run. That takes Dayne, the more effective Giant so far away from the game plan. Further the Giants game has long been stay in front and grind it out. If they fall behind they are in trouble because they are not a come from behind team, so that aids any bet laying big points. I really love the matchups here which is fairly rare for me to find. This game will be about the Rams daring Collins to beat them and I don't think he is the man to do it.
Ok, since this is mostly football, I got that too. I have to say I am highly tempted by Atlanta. The Niners don't play well on turf and this game means more to the Falcons than the Niners traditionally. Falcons proved they could match up well with the Niners as it took a SF comeback to get the win in the first matchup. Granted no Jamal and a few banged up players for the Birds, but I think the public sentiment has too quickly jumped away. The Niners last two wins were against weaker teams than this. Further I think amazingly the Niners are showing a bit of a lack of speed on offense and its making their offense sputter. Falcons have the speed on D and the type of QB in Vick that I think could make the Niner overaggressive D-line look a little shaky. Further it seems everyone and their mother is taking SF here, those usually are good spots to go against the crowd. However I think I have a stronger POW.
Rams -10.5 over Giants
I can't find a reason not to bet this one. It goes beyond turf, it goes beyond the roll the Rams are on, its simply something I think a lot of people are missing. The Giants D doesn't have the right personnel to stop Faulk and whoever is not being covered by Sehorn is going to get picked on. The Giants beat the Chiefs and Saints because they don't have multiple receiver threats nor a receiving threat from RB. I don't think Armstead has the speed or ability to stay with Faulk and that will force the Giants to use safeties on him. Well that takes those guys out of position to play the two deep they usually go with, something they would like to use considering a rookie (Allen) probably will be covering Holt. On the other side of the ball the Rams do one thing good on defense and that is stuff the inside run. That takes Dayne, the more effective Giant so far away from the game plan. Further the Giants game has long been stay in front and grind it out. If they fall behind they are in trouble because they are not a come from behind team, so that aids any bet laying big points. I really love the matchups here which is fairly rare for me to find. This game will be about the Rams daring Collins to beat them and I don't think he is the man to do it.