bet this river

[cockandbull]

Had a few too many and am mutli tabling so no really reads. Anyone do anything any different?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 folds, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

[Shillx]

It's pretty close on this river. He probably has a jack or a pocket pair like 66. I would check FWIW.

Brad

[cockandbull]

What do you make of the rest of it:?

[Shillx]

Rest is standard

Brad

[Greg J]

I dont think the river check is horrible, but I do think a value bet is usually +EV (hence making it a value bet). I do think you should bet here.

[cockandbull]

Which worse hands do you expect will call? Which better hands will fold?

I'm really not sure if this is good or not, maybe i'm still giving people too much respect but what hand would call here. I've started to check the hh in the top corner to see which players are calling with junk, but without a read is it, asume they play bad?

[Greg J]

Good points. Overcards will probably fold while a Jack will probably call. I read the hand too fast -- something I have been doing a lot lately -- I thought he flop was JJ4 not 44J. (JJ4 of course would be a much better flop for you.) You are representing an overpair here, and villian likely has a lone jack.

[EliteNinja]

Let's say you feel that he has a lower pocket pair 30% of the time, and a J, Ace or higher pocket pair 40% of the time and nothing 30% of the time. He will always fold if he has nothing, and always call if he has a lower pocket pair or higher pocket pair.

If you check the river:
You will win 9.5BB 60% of the time and lose 9.5BB 40% of the time.

EV = (0.6)*(9.5) + (0.4)*(-9.5) = 1.9BB

If you Bet the River:
You will win 9.5BB if he has nothing as he will fold(30%).
You will win 10.5BB if he has a lower PP (30%)
You will lose 10.5BB if he has a J, A, or higher PP (40%)

EV = (0.3)*(9.5) + (0.3)*(10.5) + (0.4)*(-10.5) = 1.8BB

So therefore, checking the river has a higher expected value.

Too bad I pulled the numbers out of my ass. You're going to have to use your own judgement on figuring out the percentages. And who knows, the guy may raise if you bet on the river and you lose more.

[Shillx]

It is pretty close, but I think a hand like 77 or 88 will call. A jack and an ace will call as well. If betting is +EV (and that is an if), it is real thin EV. If you had say, Jx on this river, then you need to bet because at worst you are probably tied (and he will have a small pocket more then an ace IMO).

Brad

Brad