When someone raises two of you on the river...

[ipp147]

Anyone lay this down at the end?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, CO calls, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

[Seether]

I will pay that one off every time.

[JinX11]

Do you feel top two pair is good one time in 11.5?

I do. If he has A4 or a set, so be it.

[Trix]

It´s closer to a 3bet than a fold imo.

[River2Pair]

I can't think of a hand from a decent player that beats you.

I'd expect to see a worse two pair here most of the time.

And if he has 33, God bless him. And bet most middle pairs on the turn against this man.

Actually, with CO padding the pot as a seeming non-threat, I don't think 3-betting would be horrible.

[MarkL444]

easy call for me.

[Evan]

I'm with you Trix. What's the play if its capped? Can we fold in this pot with top 2?

[JinX11]

Yeah, on second thought, you've got this right. Re-raise is the way to go.

[edtost]

i'd argue for calling the raise instead of presenting the CO with 2 cold and opening youself up to a cap which will be a better hand a significant portion of the time, but not often enough for you to fold.

edit: and folding obviously blows.

[Trix]

Eh, I still like calling the best though /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Middle guy often overcalls, so gains about the same as 3betting and the guy will have the straight a fair ammount of the time.

Was just trying to point out that folding sucks.

[chesspain]

I am so not laying this down.

[Evan]

I think 3 betting is a pretty good option here. It lokos a lot like a smaller 2 pair to me. I don't think he's got 46/A4 all that often.

[MarkL444]

i dont get the argument for 3-betting. why knock out the CO who will almost surely call with a worse hand?

3-bet
knocks out the CO, pray you can win an extra bet from the button

call
CO gives you that extra bet


plus the chance you get capped by a straight/set. this seems like a simple call.

[JinX11]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont get the argument for 3-betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I want to announce my presence with authority. /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

[SparkyDog]

Yeah, but getting an overcall out of the guy in the middle is the same as getting the raiser for two more. 3 betting opens you up to a cap that's hard to fold to but won't result in you winning a showdown very often.

The only way 3 betting is superior is if you think he will cap with a lot of hands that you beat, something he isn't likely doing with two smaller pair (his most likely holding).

[River2Pair]

[ QUOTE ]
The only way 3 betting is superior is if you think he will cap with a lot of hands that you beat, something he isn't likely doing with two smaller pair (his most likely holding).

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you know?

[SparkyDog]

Okay, let's assume that since button woke up on the river he was playing something that was somehow improved by the 3.

23, 52, 93, 33, A4, and 46 are all hands improved by the 3. Of those, 23, 53, and 93 are the ones you beat. (I've discounted K3 because it's remote that he would call the flop with that, although your ahead against it too).

Now, how realistic is it to hope that he's capping with 23, 52, and 93? Not to mention he's also capping the other hands that beat you.

But let's go ahead and throw some other lower two pair hands in there too, 95, 92, and K5 and K2. Again, it's unlikely he'll cap with many of these.

Even if he caps with all of these hands, there's 51 combinations of hands you beat, and 38 combinations you don't, short of the 2:1 it needs to be.

None of this takes into account that he's not limping with 93o and the more raggedy hands that you beat in the first place.

[River2Pair]

I guess for 3-betting to be correct, CO would have to cold-call here an abnormally high percentage of the time. That would be horrible play on CO's part, but he really should have folded to the first raise if he was unable to raise, so anything could be possible.

My point isn't that you should 3-bet. My point is that you should not fold, because your hand is strong enough to even consider 3-betting. But I don't think 3-betting is the right play.