Natedogg Week 5 final picks

Year so far: 6-3.


New Orleans -5 over Carolina, previously discussed. Ultra lock

More good news for New Orleans bettors. It looks like Muhsin Muhammed got injured in practics and is questionable to start. If he's not on the field, it'll be a very long day for Weinke.


New Orleans/Carolina under 39.

For the same reasons I think New Orleans will win. They will completely shut down the Carolina offense.


Miami -3 over New York Jets. Semi-ultra lock.


This doesn't merit much discussion. Jets historically do well vs. Miami..... but not this time. I think

Jets bettors are overly optimistic based on scoring 42 on Buffalo. Buffalo is a bad team and Jets bettors should be

concerned about giving up 36 to Buffalo. Miami will roll.


Ten/Tamp under 33

Yes, 33 is a ridiculously low under. I realize this. That said, I don't see how Tampa will be able to score 10 in this game.


So far they've been held to ten by Min and Dal, and held to 7 by GB (the other 7 was a defensive td). Now they're on the road at Adelphia. Tampa is simply not a good offense and if they score over 13 it'll be a miracle. Unfortunately, Tennessee's banged up offense will probably have a very hard time with Tampa Bay. I really can't see Ten scoring over 13 either. I expect this game to be 14-10, MAX, probably more like 9-6.


You have one awesome defense vs. a banged up, underperforming offense, and you have a lousy offense on the road facing a defense that is actually pretty good, despite the team's 0-3 record. Look for a VERY low scoring game here.


Sf -3 over atlanta and SF/ATL under 43


Previously discussed below by me.

The 9ers are 3-1 and hit the under in all 3 of their victories.

Atlanta offense is very banged up and I expect this game to stay low score.


I expect I'll probably go 4-2 this week. A couple of these unders may slip by me.


natedogg

TB/TN under 33 sounds really good, especially with Warrick Dunn just coming back from an injury, Eddie George gimping on a sore ankle (only practiced part of Friday this week), Frank Wycheck with a stiff neck, Derrick Mason with a sore ankle.

under...unless accidents happen...most teams play more conservatively, settling for field goals, punting and letting the excellent defensive unit do their thing...good bet...hope i did not jynx you lol..gl

Look out for the defensive scores. I have bet two unders this year so far. First was Alabama/Arkansas and it took two Tide D TDs, including one with :22 left to beat me. Last week I took under 35 with Mia/NE, Taylor scores a TD to beat me. This matchup looks like at least one TD will be scored by a defense and they might set up short drives too. There comes a point where the offenses are so weak that they become potential scorers for the other team and this might be the case here. If one D can dominate the other offense much like Philly did against Dallas, then the turnovers and short field could yield more points that you are expecting. Besides I think Tampa's offense is too talented to stay down forever. I mean its a good line, decent receivers, good backs...it just doesn't make sense they struggle so much. I have to say the best thing Dungy could do is bench Johnson next time he is ineffective and give King a chance to spark the team. For all the complaints about his talents, I think he can fire up the team and he isn't afraid to throw the ball downfield unlike Johnson. Don't be surprised if it happens soon because it looks like Johnson needs more time to get comfortable with the offense and the playbook so why not use the guy who has it down already until Johnson comes out and opens things up, the exact thing he was signed to do.


For these reasons I pass on this game and I am looking at the over in Bal/GB, a game where I think there will be some turnovers and big plays that will make what should seem like a low scoring game go over.

then some coaches become aware of this and become even more conservative on offense...then you got a great under...gl

Saints -5 won by 2 didn't cover by 3


NO vs Carolina Under 39 total 52 lost by 13


Miami -3 vs. NYJ lost by 4 didn't cover by 7


Tenn vs TB under 33 total 59 didn't cover by 26


SF -3 vs. Atlanta SF wins by 6 cover by 3


SF vs. ATL under 43 total 68 failed to cover by 25


1-5 this week.


"I expect I'll probably go 4-2 this week. A couple of these unders may slip by me"


your expectation were too high more than that slipped by you

Ouch what a week.


natedogg