win expectancy

Hi

Do you more hours live than online to get a fair assesment of your win expectany?

Isn't bb/hand a better measurement of your winnings than bb/hour when you want to determine if you're a winning player?


This would mean that if you need 200h live to know where you stand, you only need 100h online (50 if you play two tables).


Peter

BB per hand would be better for comparison--but requires you to do work of recording number of hands, and would be easy to fail to record a few


thus I would opt for using 1/2 hour on net to compare to 1hr live

It's not such a black and white question. Basically, measurement

uncertainty goes as the inverse square root of number of hands, or hours played, or any such measure.


Basically, you are right, you do converge faster on line because you play more hands, and if you play twice as many hands, your uncertainty after 100 hours online will be roughly the same as 200 hours in a B&M cardroom, i.e. :


Houly_SD_Online/(100)^.5 ~= Hourly_SD_live/(200)^.5


Notice that this assumes your online SD is higher than your live SD by 2^.5, which is logical given the increased number of hands.


For example, in my online carrer, I have a measurement error of 15.25/760^.5 = 0.56 . (Mostly playing two tables) So there is a 67% chance that my "true" win (or loss ;-) ) rate is within .56 of my recorded one, and a 95% chance that it is within 1.2 BB/hr of my recorded one.


So, to say confidently how sure you are that you are a winning player, you need to have a win rate, and a measurement error. Notice you can never be "infinitely" sure, there is always a chance, whether it be 1 in 2, 1 in 100, or 1 in 10,000, that you have just been lucky. Good motivation to keep working. ;-)


Also, Mason says this alot better than I do in Gambling Theory and Other Topics. Get it.


zooey


P.S. Check out the test forum! Anonymous trolls may find it a bit tougher in the near future!! ;-)