PP $30 + $3 Final Table Question

[U235]

Hi all. I've been lurking on these boards for a few months, and have made a resolution to do some posting. Here is a hand I had yesterday. We are down to 9 from a field of a little over 1,000. We are in the small blind:

(I tried using the converter but couldn't get it to work)

Level:21 Blinds (10000/20000) -
UTG+1 ( $82226 )
Hero (SB) ( $104557 )
BB ($129956 )

Dealt to Hero [ 8s 8c ]

UTG folds.
UTG+1 raises [40000].
All fold to you in the small blind.

Other info: We are a slightly less than average stack. 9th pays ~$500. 8th ~$675. 7th ~$1000 and so on up to a top prize of ~$7000. The shortest stack is at ~45000 and is in MP. As for reads, both other players have recently come from table #2. I watched that table for a while, and nothing stuck out. We've done nothing particularly crazy ourselves that anyone has seen.

BTW, thanks for all the advice over the past few months.

[LuckyEights8]

He has a little over a 4X BB stack and hes min-raising the BB by putting in half of his stack?

That is very fishy.

I can only see this being A) A monster begging for action or B) An inexperienced raise with a mediocre hand such as 66, AJ, KQ.

[fl0w]

It's definately fishy, if he doesn't struck you as a noobie, I'd say easy laydown.

[U235]

I just assumed that he would call any re-raise, as he certainly seemed committed. Although, if he folded, he would have enough to fold another 10 hands or so, maybe enough to move up the pay-scale. Still, UTG+1 is no place to try a steal.

[Lloyd]

88 is a pivotal pair for me. There are 6 lower pairs and 6 bigger pairs. Sometimes I'll call an all-in with 88, other times I'll fold. I think this is one of those times I would fold just because the mini-raise looks a little fishy (without any reads to the contrary).

[adanthar]

Fold without a second thought and I would also fold JJ/think about folding QQ before *reluctantly* pushing here.

[jslag]

Without a read on him, I would tend to fold this. If you did play it, you should re-raise him all in. There is a small chance that he could fold if he doesn't know what he's doing.

If you just got down to the final 9, I would be suspicious about this play. Most people are aware that the top 3 spots pay the most cash, and they will play very very tight for the first few orbits of the final table. However, with the blinds so high and folded to him... he could easily do this with a weak Ace or a smaller pair than yours. But you've got a decent stack, so I think the smart choice is to wait for a better spot to move in.

[schwza]

there will be 185k in the pot if hero calls and BB folds. hero has to call 72k, so you'd have to win 39% to make it break even in term of chips.

if you're against overcards, you're ~55% to win. that means you get a chip bonus of 16% * 185k = 30k.

if you bust the short stack, you have a lot of chips to work with. if you lose, you'll still have enough to wait and see if the short stack busts on his big blind.

the villain should recognize that he'll go all-in on his big blind, since the MP short stack will wait him out. (or he'll fold has his stack in the BB, also pretty unappealing). so villain should be pushing any ace, and any pair.

do you agree with my analysis of his possible hands?

i would call here with 99, and i'd have to think about 88. i think the poster who said he'd consider folding QQ, i think that's way too tight. you want to get some chips, and you'll still probably move up a space in the money even if you lose.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
i would call here with 99, and i'd have to think about 88. i think the poster who said he'd consider folding QQ, i think that's way too tight. you want to get some chips, and you'll still probably move up a space in the money even if you lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

He didn't push. He minraised half his stack. There is a vast difference between the two.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
If you did play it, you should re-raise him all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I respectfully disagree with this. The raiser just put 50% of his stack in the pot. A re-raise all in by our hero will no doubt be called. I understand that you've said "there is a small chance" but I think there is no chance - at least before the flop.

If you decide to play this (and I think it's a fold), it's a perfect opportunity for a stop and go. Call the raise and push with any two cards on the flop. If he didn't hit the flop, he MAY fold at this point. It's not very likely, but certainly more possible than him folding pre-flop to an all-in re-raise.

[TStoneMBD]

assuming schwzas math is correct, im going allin with this hand. schwza is correct in assuming that UTG1 may be making a play with a weak hand because he is going to be most likely eliminated after the bb passes him. you may be up against A7. his minraise is very fishy and so i respect the reads from the posters here that he may have AA, but in general i think he would make this play with any pair, and maybe any ace. if youre looking at a pair, id predict its 60% over, 40% under. if youre looking at an ace, id predict its 75% over, 25% under. most of the time itll be a classic race. with the bb as dead money, i think its an easy allin. you are shorstacked and doubling up in this pot will make it very easy to bully the likely tight table. i think the play is +EV and the chips should serve you well, not to mention the money is in the top3 positions.

[U235]

Thanks for the responses. I re-raised all-in, BB folded, and UTG+1 called and showed TT. No miracles came, and I was out two hands later in 9th.

I didn't really think about the min-raise at the time; I just assumed it was random noise at the time and treated it like it was an all-in. These comments have forced me to think about more, however. I was surprised to see TT there, as that normally seems like a hand that does not want to invite callers and see a flop. However, it seems the only person that is likely to call would be the big blind (40,000 is a sizable chunk of everyone's stack), and he could do so with a less-than-premium hand. To compare:

Scenario 1: UTG+1 goes all-in. Everyone else either goes all-in or doesn't, and UTG+1 wins or he doesn't. (that should cover it /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

Scenario 2: UTG+1 min-raises. If anyone goes all-in, he calls (basically the same as scenario 1). If BB or SB (less likely) calls, you have position, although I think that you'd go all-in on almost any flop.

Does anyone think giving the BB a T20,000 shot to win T70,000 extra is +EV for UTG+1? Depends on what a normal BB will call with, obviously. I'd also love to hear some thoughts on what you'd call or raise with as the BB.