OK.......... let's get something straight...

The reason you get more outdraws at Paradise Poker than in real life are twofold.


One... more players are playing their hands til the river so it is obvious that more often you will be outdrawn with a "miracle" card on the river.


Two.. you are playing at over twice the speed of a b&m pokerroom... hence you will get over twice the number of bad beats.


Plus I think there is more opportunity for the good player to tilt online... no embarresment factor that you would feel in a B&M casino from your peers.


If I can win constitantly at PP.... (and I suck big time) then I am sure any half decent player can. I would stake what's left of my reputation that it is not fixed.


Cheers,


Keith

Why do you get more outdraws at Paradise than at other online sites?


Tom D

Here's one...


Why do you get drawn out on more at paradise more than other sites? You don't. Thehawk67 explains the online vs. B&M question, but here is why paradise players think they are drawn out on more than on other sites....


Paradise players are much better than players on other sites. The availablility of so many games makes reading players and getting a feel for the game difficult. It seems like you are getting drawn out on because a session where you take a number of bad beats is much more likely to be a significantly losing session than it is on the sites with weaker players. What people don't realize is that they are losing a lot of money to the other good players that just aren't there in numbers on others sites. I have played in games where my good cards have gotten crushed, but the other players were so bad I ended up near even. I do not see a game like this lasting long at all on paradise. You have little chance to get your money back because the bad player who beat you will either quickly tighen up, leave, or a swarm of good players will come and make your game unplayable. Lets say I take 2 shorthanded bad beats in a row from some schmuck for a total of 20BB (combined pot sizes). In this particular game with this player and say two poor/average players, I may average 3BB/hr or more. Normally, I will get the 10BB I lost back pretty quickly. This bad player gives me say 2.5BB/hr of equity. What will happen on Paradise is that a bunch of decent players will see the fish, or just decide to sit, and my equity from the bad player will now be spilt between all of the reasonably good players. I am now only making say .5BB/hr from having the terrible player at my table. It is much less likely that I will get my money back. Another even more common phenomenon is when an average player outplays and beats a terrible player for say 20BB and then the table is populated with good players. The average player now has a negative expectation, even though he thinks he is playing well since he just crushed the fish. Every session has some bad beats, but you only remember them in losing sessions for the most part.


I wonder if what I just wrote makes any sense....


-g-

Your theory doesn't make sense to me. Firstly, why do you think Paradise players are better than players at other sites? Secondly, if Paradise players are better, wouldn't that reduce the number of bad beats since good players, by definition, don't play long-shot draws?


Tom D

Ok. Sure. I see what you're saying.


The bad players do suck out more, but the better players make more money when they draw out. Their overall suckout profit could actually be greater because they are more agressive and extract more bets when their hand does become a winner, so you can lose more with fewer bad beats. Since you are not making up the money as fast, the bankroll hit lingers longer and you remember it more.


While you will take a higher number of bad beats against terrible players, you can take a higher percentage of bad beats against ok players. For example, say you bet top pair heads up on the flop. Estimate that your opponent has odds to call 20% of the time. If he calls 100% of the time, and (incorrectly) draws out 1 in 10 times, it seems that you have your top pair sucked out on 10% of the time. If your opponent calls 40% of the time on the flop he makes less incorrect calls. His errant calls are probably closer to correct but not really close. Therefore, he may have a 25% chance of winning with the hands he incorrectly calls with. So instead of sucking out 1/10 times, he sucks out 5/40 = 1/8 times he calls your bet. These numbers are a bit(very)arbitrary but it proves the point.


Still not making much sense,


-G-

OK but please answer the first question - why do you state with such confidence that Paradise players are better than those at other sites? I cannot think of a single reason why the proportion of good to bad players should be any different at Paradise to anywhere else. If I was to go on anecdotal, personal evidence, I might say the opposite, since my girlfriend gets caned at Planet's cash games but has an excellent record in tourneys at Paradise.


(Yes, I realise this is more likely due to her style of play!)

This is my opinion, and seems to be the opinion of many others who post here. Planet is probably the second toughest site in my experience, but I never played there long since I lost my miniscule buy-ins to suckouts the two times I deposited there. Ironic isn't it? For example I was looking on another site the other night and their full 2-4 game had a flop % over 50%, and it stayed that way. You will never find this on paradise (at least not for long). It is not uncommon for even these low-limit games to have %'s of 30 or less. That is a major difference. Players on other sites also seem to be more passive, and the fish seem to be weeded out faster on PP due to the availability of games (it is easier to keep playing and even move up limits when you go on tilt at PP). How many times have you seen someone who is losing in a ring game try to "win in back" by going to a heads-up table and playing eric, lastchance, etc...? Their bankroll is then gone. On highlandsclub, for instance, you will be lucky if there is another game going and are likely just leave instead of going to another table "to change your luck" while on full tilt. Most good players play on Paradise and 1 or 2 other sites. Most really bad players limit themselves to one site, and they tend to stay away from Paradise because they get crushed there. It is too fast and impersonal for a lot of weak loose players like the ones you would find in most casino games up to 20-40. The tournaments at Paradise seem to be the exception, however. I think this is because most people suck at playing shorthanded and don't understand the value of hands in different situations. The $5 and $10 tourney players are worse than those in most any cash game on the site and even the $30 tourneys are only equivalent to a $2-4 or $3-6 game. I think a lot people who are almost winning players concentrate better in tourneys as well. They say "hey if I call this I lose my chance at winning $100" instead of "oh, it's just a dollar and I am bored". Also I think people often think they can win at tourneys when they are actually terrible (I'm not saying you or your girlfriend are like this, just that these people make the games easier), causing them to come back and lose more money to the people who are actually good.

Why do you play at Paradise if the games are softer everywhere else? Why haven't we seen Paradise players migrating to other, easier sites?


Tom D

Why people play there?


1. Paradise has the fastest software

2. Paradise has way more games available then anywhere else

3. Paradise has those tourneys that even the paradise haters love

4. Paradise has more variety. I have not seen anywhere else where you regularly get a stud h/l, omaha h/l, or heads up game at various limits.

5. Even if you think they may be shady, they are surely not going under anytime soon like Pokerspot, etc...


Why do I play there if it is harder?


1. I have a small BR, so I usually play below my skill level online. I may be losing 1/4 BB/hr (but still winning) of ev by playing at paradise, but I may actually learn something as I play, and it does not become the monotonous grinding out of just over mininum wage you get when you play LL's at some other sites


2. I play mostly to learn to play better and for intellectual stimulation. If I were playing for a living I would not play most of my games at Paradise.


3. I like the tornaments like everyone else.


4. I play elsewhere (actually I kind of prefer UB to PP). I can't play H/L games, etc, on UB, however.

Thanks for the reply Glenn. I can see your point that the wide availability of games can lead to good players descending on tables. But that doesn't mean that the average Paradise player is better than the average Planet player.. it just means there are more weak players around for decent players to feed off.


I played 25c/50c full-handed at Planet last night, and numerous hands were ended pre-flop! I would estimate the flop percentage at about 40, and this was 25c/50c! Admittedly that is relatively uncommon.


Your comments that fish bust out faster at Paradise are interesting, in the context of numerous complaints and suspicions that precisely the opposite is true through the site giving poor players lots of suckouts. I have not played Paradise cash games enough to have any view on that, because I simply don't like the interface very much.


The tournaments *are* great, and I agree that I wouldn't particularly use them as a gauge of player strength overall. My girlfriend does better in these than at Planet because her style simply suits tourneys better than the grind of limit poker.


In the end I would still maintain that the percentage of good-players-to-bad at Paradise and any other site is most likely the same. Perhaps Paradise would even have more poor players because it is simply the easiest site to find and get involved in, with ads everywhere and constant action.