Party 15, from the blinds

[goofball]

typical party 15 game with no reads.

Folded around to the CO who raises, SB calls and I call with Ts7s

flop is 7c 2h Ad
sb checks, I bet...

[Thomsen]

no one will fold an ace.

Some people will fold big pocket pairs as high as kings BUT the chance of that is a lot higher if you checkraise the flop and bet out on the turn

Or if you check call the flop and bet out on the turn

[rigoletto]

Perfect flop for a bet. You will take it down more than the required 1 in 7 times. But if called you should check fold the turn.

Thomsen - hold dig til Pot Limit /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Thomsen]

du har sgu nok ret

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
sb checks, I bet...

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the bet, unless you are doing it to vary you play. CO is going to bet this flop, so I would play it like Thomsen suggests, check/raise the flop or check/call and bet the turn.

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
sb checks, I bet...

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the bet, unless you are doing it to vary you play. CO is going to bet this flop, so I would play it like Thomsen suggests, check/raise the flop or check/call and bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why get fancy? Check/raising screams steal and what if sb beats you to it and steal check/raises with nothing. I do in general like the check/call/bet the turn move, but on this particular flop there is a good chance of taking it right there if nobody has an A, so why invest 1½BB in something that could be accomplished by ½BB.

A lot of players call the check/raise with anything and like the call/bet move it gives your opponent a peak at the turn and a chance to see a card he likes. Don't give him that, bet out!

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
Check/raising screams steal

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess we have to disagree.

It's pretty much a given that CO will bet this flop, representing an Ace, so a check/raise says, "I have and Ace and I wanted to get extra money out of you". I think betting out says "weak hand, that's not strong enough to raise".

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check/raising screams steal

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess we have to disagree.

It's pretty much a given that CO will bet this flop, representing an Ace, so a check/raise says, "I have and Ace and I wanted to get extra money out of you". I think betting out says "weak hand, that's not strong enough to raise".

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't matter. Either he has an A or he don't. If he has Kx, QJ or the like, he can't call wether it's a bet or a check/raise and if he is a superfish calling station he'll call both. If he's the type to call down with TT-KK he'll do it regardless. I guess it comes down to wether you believe (as I do) that if he's intent on calling he'll call a bet as well as a check/raise, or you believe a check/raise is more likely to fold him on the flop.

You have to consider the math however. With a bet he need only fold 1 in 7 times for you to break even, with the checkraise you need him to fold 1 in 4½ times. That's a huge difference in odds. Your checkraise has to be 33% more efficient than betting out.

[Thomsen]

What will you do on the turn if he calls the flop ?

[goofball]

depends on what sb has been doing

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
Either he has an A or he don't.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, either he believes you have an Ace or he doesn't.

[ QUOTE ]
Your checkraise has to be 33% more efficient than betting out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you think your bet look suspicious when you "know" that CO is going to bet the flop? Won't that make a bet look suspicious and be less efficient?

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Either he has an A or he don't.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, either he believes you have an Ace or he doesn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your missing something: wether or not he believes I have an A is only important when he has a calling hand, which ties into my comments about letting him se the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your checkraise has to be 33% more efficient than betting out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you think your bet look suspicious when you "know" that CO is going to bet the flop? Won't that make a bet look suspicious and be less efficient?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

No. The important thing here is that we are looking at an A high drawless board. You put the emphasis on wether he will put you on an A. I'm banking that he doesn't have a hand to call with a lot of the time. Put yourself in his shoes if you are holding any hand without an A or a pocket pair lower than 7. This is why I put importance on not letting him see the turn in addition to the mathematical advantage of betting vs. checkraising.

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
What will you do on the turn if he calls the flop ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming SB folds the flop: This is really player dependend. Against unknown or solid players I check/fold. Against weak calling stations i fire again on the turn. I would deem check/fold default also because weak A's and hands like 99 often check behind on the turn giving me a chance to outdraw them. Worst scenario is to get called again on the turn and bet behind when you check the river.

[goofball]

against an unknown party 15er i bet the turn and fold if i get raised, if i get called i'll check call the river. the thing i like about checkign the river in this spot is that a lot of the time better hands will check behinid and worse hands will bet.

[AceHigh]

Most of the time you have the best hand here, so you want CO to bet. You act like this is a bluffing situation.

[BottlesOf]

Flop is an easy bet, but I'm mucking preflop. Am I giving up too much?

[Kevin J]

[ QUOTE ]
I think betting out says "weak hand, that's not strong enough to raise".


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, and I love this! It's why I so often collect 3 bets from hands with very little chance.

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
Most of the time you have the best hand here, so you want CO to bet. You act like this is a bluffing situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you read my posts? Have you read your own posts? You're the one who wants to checkraise because 'it's more likely to get him to fold' I think that's playing it like a bluff.

Yes you gain a small bet when he folds to your checkraise, but at the expense of cutting your odds to a fold by 33%. You have a difficult turn when he calls in both scenarios but in one you pay double price to get there.

I'm not saying a checkraise is out of the question, I just think a bet is he default play!

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you read my posts? Have you read your own posts? You're the one who wants to checkraise because 'it's more likely to get him to fold' I think that's playing it like a bluff.


[/ QUOTE ]

No, that's getting him to make a mistake. Folding 2 cards higher than 7 would be a mistake with the pot size, but it would be correct if you had the Ace. You want him to fold because he probably should call.

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Have you read my posts? Have you read your own posts? You're the one who wants to checkraise because 'it's more likely to get him to fold' I think that's playing it like a bluff.


[/ QUOTE ]

No, that's getting him to make a mistake. Folding 2 cards higher than 7 would be a mistake with the pot size, but it would be correct if you had the Ace. You want him to fold because he probably should call.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, we are on a tangent here. Let me try to summarize:

Three options has been presented:

1) Bet the flop (the obvious superior play /images/graemlins/wink.gif).
2) Checkraise the flop.
3) Check/call and bet the turn.

We agree that we'd like the opponent to fold, preferbly on the flop, because he'll make a mistake folding 2 overcards 2 the 7 and we have a vulnerable hand. We also agree that if he calls option 1 and 2 we have a hard turn decision and probably should check/fold. Let me comment on each option starting with the last one:

3) Allways an interesting play. It'll cost us 3SB to win 7 so he needs to fold on the turn 42% of the time to break even. An additional problem with this play is that if he calls the turn, we are getting enticing odds to call a river bet (1:7).

2) Potentially more likely to take it down on the turn than a flat flop bet. Problem is that he has to fold 33% more than in scenario 1 to make it a better option. Checkraising and then chekking the turn is a huge sign of weakness and makes it more likely he'll bet the turn with a worse hand.

1) The option that gives the best return if he folds, but it might not be as effective in folding the opponent as scenario 2. Id does however have the added benefit that he might check behind on the turn if he calls with a worse hand.

I believe our real disagreement lies in the assesment of how often he will fold in scenarios 1 and 2. I think the average player will fold slightly less to a flop bet than a checkraise but not enough to upset the difference in effective odds. I also analyze from the assumption that if he sees a turn I'm not putting any more money in this hand which leads me to settle the turn in the cheapest way possible.