Do you get stacked with QQ vs AA/KK every time on Party? (help pls)

[Unarmed]

This is an actual hand, but it happened to me three times today under similar circumstances.

Stacks ~25

I have QQ in EP and raise to 2, get 2 callers, Button raises to $7, I flat call, others fold.

Flop is all undercards, I bet pot, which amounts to a push, get called by KK, and bust. I guess my question is, do I just have to accept this or is there a better way to play QQ to a PF reraise on Party's short stacks.

Thanks.

[fl0w]

Be wary of overpairs is all I can say, [censored] happens.

But why is this posted in STT-section?

[Unarmed]

My fault, end of a 7 hour session.

[JJKillian]

I am sure this post will get flamed, most of mine do when I throw up these stats, but they are fact.

I have also noticed this on party. I am not sure why some people are consistantly profitable on party. But on the avg I see k/k vs a/a one time in an sng. Most of the 20's and 30's are only 50 to 80 hands, with a .4% chance of this happening it don't make sence to me to see it that much. If I remember a chart I saw once, the odds of anyone having a/a on any particular deal is right around 1.2%. So unless every sng goes 83 hands, mathmatically it shouldn't come every sng, and yet I cannot remember the last time I didn't see a/a at least once let alone multiple times during any one sng.

I had k/k vs a/a 6 times out of the 14 times, that I had k/k, between Weds through Thurs of this past week. q/q vs k/k or a/a 4 out of 12 times I had q/q. And just got knocked out of one 4 handed with j/j vs q/q. Out of the 6 with k/k 2 were 4 handed. My aces that had a flop were 1 for 6. Final and best stat is this. If ya play tight you will end up in 4th or 5th with around 1k in chips on a normal sng. Once the blinds get to 100/200 you usually end up playing a/x or k/x (higher than k/7 for me) as a push/semi bluff. Over the past week I am sitting at 40% when I have another ace dominated. On Monday when I get back to the office I will post the hands.

I took massive bad beat after bad beat a few months back. Took some advice off here, and did decent at best playing text book from the sng faq post that use to be the sticky post at the top of the forum. Usually end up in 4th or 5th either short stacked and having to push on marginal hands or playing aggressive and either getting 1st or 4th/5th.

I now have 1k sng's under the belt and am now exactly where I started the day I first depostied.

I have concluded one of two things from my online play. I am either the unluckiest person ever in online history, or hands online are generally higher in rank than in real life.

In the end I won a $5 1800 player MTT and gave that all back over a 5 month period in STT's. All 20's and 30's. And am now withdrawing my orginal deposit with a lesson learned. Stick to bricks and mortar for me. Obviously this isn't true for everyone, once again I see the monthly leader board on Party and usually there are 5-10 of the same names up there every month. But for my game it is bricks and mortar. I have been a proitable player year in and year out for 5 years now in B&M play, there is just some adjustment I cannot make online.

JJ

[Burno]

[ QUOTE ]
I am sure this post will get flamed, most of mine do when I throw up these stats, but they are fact.

I have also noticed this on party. I am not sure why some people are consistantly profitable on party. But on the avg I see k/k vs a/a one time in an sng. Most of the 20's and 30's are only 50 to 80 hands, with a .4% chance of this happening it don't make sence to me to see it that much. If I remember a chart I saw once, the odds of anyone having a/a on any particular deal is right around 1.2%. So unless every sng goes 83 hands, mathmatically it shouldn't come every sng, and yet I cannot remember the last time I didn't see a/a at least once let alone multiple times during any one sng.


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Dude, if a SNG lasts 83 hands, and you see AA nearly every tourney, I'm really not that surprised. Think about how many TOTAL hands are dealt, not just to you or one person.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
In the end I won a $5 1800 player MTT and gave that all back over a 5 month period in STT's. All 20's and 30's. ... I have been a proitable player year in and year out for 5 years now in B&M play, there is just some adjustment I cannot make online.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can tell you exactly what it is.

a)Online games are much tougher than the B&M equivalent at the same stakes;
b)You've been playing over your head with a bankroll higher than you're used to this whole year. (If you were playing WORSE than the advice in the guide - which is designed specifically for the $10+1's and isn't even optimal for them - you've naturally been a losing player this entire time.)

I'm sure there were other adjustments - almost every B&M player relies far more on hand reading than online players do - but I'm guessing that's it. You won an MTT, got a big bankroll out of it, and moved up before you were ready. End of story.

[JJKillian]

I am not sure if the 20's are really that much different than the 10's. 30's are a lot different. I played maybe 50 out of the 1000 in 30's. They were mostly 20's. It also depends on the time of day I have noticed. Day times are generally tighter, and nights are way easier to get ITM. I truly believe you can move up a lvl after 10pm EST on the weekends only, providing your beating the lvl you are moving from.

As far as the difference from B&M from online I totally agreee with ya. I have chaulked up the major difference is that I can read much better in person. Hand strength online is much harder to determine, for me at least, than in person.

I also feel I am not totally giving online a completly bias opinion either though. Lets say someone has an insanly good run of cards/luck/running into truly bad players, and then basis an opinion on poker that way. Online poker is just the reverse for me. These past 5 months have been probably my worse run of 2 of the 3 from above I will probably ever go through in poker.

As far as the guide originally I played my game, whatever that is. I only went to the guide because I gave several hand examples here a few months back to get some feed back. I mostly got responces saying play much much tighter early on then play my normal game after lvl 3. So for about a 1 month period I followed it to the tee, then adapted some of the plays I would make in certain situations into it.

What I was saying about the 83 hands is 1.2%x83 hands = 1 time a/a should appear. Yet it appears much more often than that. And the 10-30 world of sng's don't normally go 83 hands. I might be distorting facts though here also. In the back of Super System, Caro has a/a listed as a 1.2% chance of coming. I am not sure if that is per player or per hand meaning a full deal of hands. If it is 1.2% of per player then it should appear every 8.3 full deals. If 1.2% per overall deal then 1 time every 83 deals. Need to go look it up again to, it might even be .8% now that I think about it, hehe.

JJ

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not sure if the 20's are really that much different than the 10's. 30's are a lot different. I played maybe 50 out of the 1000 in 30's. They were mostly 20's. It also depends on the time of day I have noticed. Day times are generally tighter, and nights are way easier to get ITM. I truly believe you can move up a lvl after 10pm EST on the weekends only, providing your beating the lvl you are moving from.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say after 8, but yeah.

[ QUOTE ]
As far as the difference from B&M from online I totally agreee with ya. I have chaulked up the major difference is that I can read much better in person. Hand strength online is much harder to determine, for me at least, than in person.

I also feel I am not totally giving online a completly bias opinion either though. Lets say someone has an insanly good run of cards/luck/running into truly bad players, and then basis an opinion on poker that way. Online poker is just the reverse for me. These past 5 months have been probably my worse run of 2 of the 3 from above I will probably ever go through in poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough, but you have to remember you've probably played more hands online than you ever have in B&M. At an average of 50/SNG, you've played 50K hands this year. Have you spent 1,500 hours total in casinos?

It's not just a bad run (although a bad run online can be 100-150 SNG's - still easily 200 hours of B&M play).

[ QUOTE ]
AA being dealt

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Okay, you're way off on all of this. I won't bother quoting the 500,000 hand samples that've been done to satisfy the rec.poker nuts (as if), but I'll just say this: the odds of AA being dealt to somebody at a full table on any given hand are approximately 1 in 22.

[JJKillian]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, you're way off on all of this. I won't bother quoting the 500,000 hand samples that've been done to satisfy the rec.poker nuts (as if), but I'll just say this: the odds of AA being dealt to somebody at a full table on any given hand are approximately 1 in 22.

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according to poker1.com (mike caro) odds should be .045% of being delt a/a. I guess once ya figure in a/a and a/a with two different you have to add in another .002%, then approx another .018% for 10 handed. All his numbers are based on 9 handed. So that brings ya to a total of .065% chance of anyone having a/a at the table. So if your say that rec.poker has online samples that prove 1 in 22 then online sights actually have a/a less???? 1 in 22 is .045.

JJ

[JJKillian]

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[ QUOTE ]


Fair enough, but you have to remember you've probably played more hands online than you ever have in B&M. At an average of 50/SNG, you've played 50K hands this year. Have you spent 1,500 hours total in casinos?

It's not just a bad run (although a bad run online can be 100-150 SNG's - still easily 200 hours of B&M play).

[ QUOTE ]
AA being dealt

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, you're way off on all of this. I won't bother quoting the 500,000 hand samples that've been done to satisfy the rec.poker nuts (as if), but I'll just say this: the odds of AA being dealt to somebody at a full table on any given hand are approximately 1 in 22.

[/ QUOTE ]

I seriously doubt any player has 1500 hours per year in NL in a B&M.

But yeah I probably do have 1500 hours in a year in B&M. Not sure how a year got into this, I have only been playing online for 6 months like I stated before. And with statistics no one can say a run can last x amt of time. From poker numbers I have read in the past on here, if you run STD 3 at STD 3 that means you would win approx 1 in 30, 30 times in a row, that is 30 out of 900. The odds of getting that far out are insane but anything could happen.


Like I said will post those k/k hands from this week. I am not sure what the odds of pushing k/k short handed into a/a 6 times in a 3 day period is, but it has to be out of control. Not to mention the dominated hand wins, a ton of those also.

JJ

[alexbrew]

You have a 1/220 chance at AA in your hand. That's every single time you get dealt in. Not exactly ONCE every 220 times you get a hand. You can get AA five times in a row (and lose all five times). It's meaninless. It's a statistical oddity that won't even be noticable over the course of 500,000 hands dealt (which is what twodimes uses for probability; probably a good sample). You also may not see AA for another 2000 hands, too bad, just a bad run of cards.

Casinos doubled their roulette revenue by puting a board up showing the most recent roll results. People actually think the past can help them decifer the future -- Red has hit 4 times in a row, black is DUE or it must be rigged.

That's not how roulette works, and other than calculating your outs, that's not how cards work either.

[adanthar]

Huh? I honestly have no idea what you just wrote.

OK, look. The odds of AA being dealt to you are .045 or .45%. Multiply that by 10 - each person has the same chance - and you get 4.5%. That's a little under 1/22 for the table.

That's not quite right if you want KK v. AA because if you have KK there's only 46 non-aces in the deck but only 9 players are left to get aces. To sum it up the odds of AA v. KK when one person is holding kings are about 4%.

Thing is, over this last year you've played, say, 50,000 hands and by rights should've gotten AA about 230 of them (give or take 20-30.) If you hadn't gotten kings beat by aces ten to a dozen times by now (add in queens and jacks to kings and queens, plus AA-QQ to KK-JJ, and it's well over a hundred), I'd be highly surprised.

And no, you don't get dealt big pairs more often (or less often) online. Any number of PT databases can tell you that.

[alexbrew]

The odds depend on your sample size. To even it out though, I haven't seen it happen in a while, so you're getting all the fun at your tables.

I have been eliminated from my last two tables with KK vs underpair. Odds of that are 4%. Ick. Maybe this means I'm due. lol

[cferejohn]

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The odds depend on your sample size.


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No they don't. Your distribution and standard deviation depend on your sample size, but your odds of getting AA are 1/220 (and someone at a full table getting ~1/22), no matter what your sample size is.

[JJKillian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The odds depend on your sample size.


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/images/graemlins/confused.gif

No they don't. Your distribution and standard deviation depend on your sample size, but your odds of getting AA are 1/220 (and someone at a full table getting ~1/22), no matter what your sample size is.

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think what he meant is your odds can be off if you just base it on samples if your sample size isn't large enough.

JJ