10-11-2001, 06:23 PM
This line just came out and I think I like side and the total.
I believe this line is at -3 because of the betting public's impression from week 1 in which these teams played an overtime game at SF.
Much has changed since then.
Chandler with a concussion is listed as probable. Anderson out, and we saw that his backup doesn't provide a lot of hope to Atlanta's running game. Terence Mathis probable.
The 9ers have played very well. Almost everyone agrees this team is looking good and coming together. Having watched every game (and not being a fan), I have to agree. They look good. They are improving each week and their are gaining confidence too. They are learning how to use their new running game effectively, and most suprisingly, their corners are playing like pro-bowlers!
On the other hand, things are not looking good for Atlanta. This season is starting to be suspiciously similar to last season and there is the same feeling around this team. They are clearly on the verge of a slide. Without Jamal, and a fragile Chandler, I don't believe this offense will do a whole lot next week. Andre Carter finally started showing some spark for the 9ers last week against the Car o-line and expect him to continue to get better. Probably some of this is due to being mentored by Stubblefield, who may be old but has the experience.
I haven't researched the matchups as closely in this game as I did for New Orleans/Carolina. However, I believe the momentum and the confidence of the 9ers vs. the downward momentum and waning confidence of ATL will provide a convincing solid win for S.F. , a young, determined, well-coached team that appears to be improving each week on both sides of the ball.
Since Atlanta has done this before, (slide badly after losing Jamal), I see no reason not to expect it to happen again, especially after watching them choke last week in their first game without him.
The under may be a good play as well. I fully expect the ever-improving 9er defense to do well against Chandler and a Jamal Anderson-less Atlanta running game. Honestly, I dont think Chandler will finish the game, even if he does play at all. Given that Atlanta will have offensive problems this week, I can see the 9ers gaining control early and playing a solid conservative ball-control game with a 10 pt lead or so. I expect the final score to be 24-13 or something like that. Maybe even 24-6. An over/under of 43 seems really high and I expect it's a function of the betting public still remembering all those crazy high-scoring 9er games from last year and under-estimating the vastly improved 9er defense, and lastly, totally misunderstanding that the week 1 overtime game was a different world for Atlanta than we see here in week 5.
One last note, this could easily be a spot where you would fear a let-down week for the 9ers. Especially since the home dog just came off a big defeat, and that usually signals a good spread for the home dog. However, the 9ers have been playing very consistent football, and I believe this team is indeed a consistent performer. We can certainly expect their level of play to remain what it has been, with perhaps a little steady improvement as we've seen.
Atlanta on the other hand is sliding, and to be honest, they only looked good when beating up on Arizona and Carolina. I don't see how the 9ers can fail to win by a decisive margin here, while at the same time keeping Atlanta from scoring much.
Some reasons why the bet may not be good:
Garrison Hearst is hurt. True, but Kevan Barlow has shown he can do it on his own. He's played like a stud so far and I expect the 9er running game not to miss a beat.
Bryant Young hurt. True, but he's been out for a couple weeks now and the 9ers D still doing ok. Their strength right now is in the corners, surprisingly enough, and if Andre Carter can turn it on this week, the pass rush may get better too. This is not going to affect Vick's performance, but may be crucial if Chandler is in the game. One hit to Chandler and he's probably out.
Michael Vick. 9ers don't have a good answer to a dangerous scrambling quarterback. If Vick plays the whole game, and can make a few more accurate passes, this could pose a problem. 9ers D needs to game-plan for Vick's scrambles. This could be the biggest problem for 9ers on either side of the ball.
natedogg
I believe this line is at -3 because of the betting public's impression from week 1 in which these teams played an overtime game at SF.
Much has changed since then.
Chandler with a concussion is listed as probable. Anderson out, and we saw that his backup doesn't provide a lot of hope to Atlanta's running game. Terence Mathis probable.
The 9ers have played very well. Almost everyone agrees this team is looking good and coming together. Having watched every game (and not being a fan), I have to agree. They look good. They are improving each week and their are gaining confidence too. They are learning how to use their new running game effectively, and most suprisingly, their corners are playing like pro-bowlers!
On the other hand, things are not looking good for Atlanta. This season is starting to be suspiciously similar to last season and there is the same feeling around this team. They are clearly on the verge of a slide. Without Jamal, and a fragile Chandler, I don't believe this offense will do a whole lot next week. Andre Carter finally started showing some spark for the 9ers last week against the Car o-line and expect him to continue to get better. Probably some of this is due to being mentored by Stubblefield, who may be old but has the experience.
I haven't researched the matchups as closely in this game as I did for New Orleans/Carolina. However, I believe the momentum and the confidence of the 9ers vs. the downward momentum and waning confidence of ATL will provide a convincing solid win for S.F. , a young, determined, well-coached team that appears to be improving each week on both sides of the ball.
Since Atlanta has done this before, (slide badly after losing Jamal), I see no reason not to expect it to happen again, especially after watching them choke last week in their first game without him.
The under may be a good play as well. I fully expect the ever-improving 9er defense to do well against Chandler and a Jamal Anderson-less Atlanta running game. Honestly, I dont think Chandler will finish the game, even if he does play at all. Given that Atlanta will have offensive problems this week, I can see the 9ers gaining control early and playing a solid conservative ball-control game with a 10 pt lead or so. I expect the final score to be 24-13 or something like that. Maybe even 24-6. An over/under of 43 seems really high and I expect it's a function of the betting public still remembering all those crazy high-scoring 9er games from last year and under-estimating the vastly improved 9er defense, and lastly, totally misunderstanding that the week 1 overtime game was a different world for Atlanta than we see here in week 5.
One last note, this could easily be a spot where you would fear a let-down week for the 9ers. Especially since the home dog just came off a big defeat, and that usually signals a good spread for the home dog. However, the 9ers have been playing very consistent football, and I believe this team is indeed a consistent performer. We can certainly expect their level of play to remain what it has been, with perhaps a little steady improvement as we've seen.
Atlanta on the other hand is sliding, and to be honest, they only looked good when beating up on Arizona and Carolina. I don't see how the 9ers can fail to win by a decisive margin here, while at the same time keeping Atlanta from scoring much.
Some reasons why the bet may not be good:
Garrison Hearst is hurt. True, but Kevan Barlow has shown he can do it on his own. He's played like a stud so far and I expect the 9er running game not to miss a beat.
Bryant Young hurt. True, but he's been out for a couple weeks now and the 9ers D still doing ok. Their strength right now is in the corners, surprisingly enough, and if Andre Carter can turn it on this week, the pass rush may get better too. This is not going to affect Vick's performance, but may be crucial if Chandler is in the game. One hit to Chandler and he's probably out.
Michael Vick. 9ers don't have a good answer to a dangerous scrambling quarterback. If Vick plays the whole game, and can make a few more accurate passes, this could pose a problem. 9ers D needs to game-plan for Vick's scrambles. This could be the biggest problem for 9ers on either side of the ball.
natedogg