Pocket 2's to a set

[JKDStudent]

First post here. Just started playing online for money after playing a bunch of home games. Also picked up SSHE and have been reading the boards here a lot. Anyway, been playing for a couple of hours at $1/$2 tables at Willie Hill and this is the only hand that I'm really wondering about my play on thus far.

$1/$2, 9-handed, kind of tight for small stakes

Hero dealt 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP folds, Hero calls, MP+3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop is J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB checks, BB bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero raises, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn is K /images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls.

River is 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

Is there any way I could have won more or lost less in this pot, depending on whether he was going for a flush or not?

Edit: My own thoughts: Don't two-bet the turn. Flush draws wouldn't fold to a bet anyway, so give the others a chance to do something and get more in the pot. Also cuts my losses if the flush does hit.

[SCfuji]

JKD,

this looks pretty standard. flop 3-bet and turn raises look good. calling on the river seems fine.

[Wario]

I would be very tempted to raise the river but I think you played this well.

[SCfuji]

i would be tempted as well, but since we dont know our villain i think its better to go the safe route.

[JKDStudent]

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F
Edit: My own thoughts: Don't two-bet the turn. Flush draws wouldn't fold to a bet anyway, so give the others a chance to do something and get more in the pot. Also cuts my losses if the flush does hit.

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Gah. Nevermind. It was already two-bet, so may as well go for the three to protect hand. Staring at that damned hand history txt gave me a headache. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Thanks for the input.

[Shillx]

When one player flops a set and another player flops a flush draw, it is pretty much a crapshoot as to who will win (the set will win more often, but there is no way anyone with a set or flush draw will fold). The flush draw will sometimes be aggressive on the flop, and will almost always check and call the turn. Any money that you can get in on the turn against a flush draw is good for you. Money that goes in on the flop helps both you and the flush draw, but turn bets/raises are usually -EV for the flush draw (unless there are 6 players in the pot).

Brad

[Cardzy]

I believe I would have played this exactly as you did.

[ChoicestHops]

Good play.

I might have bet/raised the river. If you already have put alot of BB's with your set, and only thing that can beat you is the flush draw, I'd figure it's worth the gamble.

[Aaron W.]

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Edit: My own thoughts: Don't two-bet the turn. Flush draws wouldn't fold to a bet anyway, so give the others a chance to do something and get more in the pot. Also cuts my losses if the flush does hit.

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Once the flush card misses on the turn, you've got a large equity edge against the flush draw. It's only gong to come in 9/44 times, which means that 35/44 times you're going to win this pot. So while you save when you lose, you lose when you win (does that make sense?).

Also, you might as well collect bets from the flush draw now, because you can't collect anything from the river if he misses.

[wabe]

I play this the same. Well done.

[Jasmien]

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Once the flush card misses on the turn, you've got a large equity edge against the flush draw. It's only gong to come in 9/44 times, which means that 35/44 times you're going to win this pot.

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you win more than 35/44 cause you have 10 outs to make the fulll house.

[DemonDeac Holding Rockets]

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Edit: My own thoughts: Don't two-bet the turn. Flush draws wouldn't fold to a bet anyway, so give the others a chance to do something and get more in the pot. Also cuts my losses if the flush does hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Once the flush card misses on the turn, you've got a large equity edge against the flush draw. It's only gong to come in 9/44 times, which means that 35/44 times you're going to win this pot. So while you save when you lose, you lose when you win (does that make sense?).

Also, you might as well collect bets from the flush draw now, because you can't collect anything from the river if he misses.

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well put. you're +EV the whole way, especially at the turn. keep raising, don't be afraid of being outdrawn or don't play the game. you will win much more money in the long run

[Aaron W.]

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Once the flush card misses on the turn, you've got a large equity edge against the flush draw. It's only gong to come in 9/44 times, which means that 35/44 times you're going to win this pot.

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you win more than 35/44 cause you have 10 outs to make the fulll house.

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You're right. It's an extra 2/44 times (as there are only two hearts that can pair the board). It doesn't matter much if you make a full house and he misses his flush.

[Zapped]

Hi all, first post here. I'm a novice player voraciously reading SSHE and playing micro-limit at UB and PS. I've got a question about the probability that Hero's set will hold up in this example.

I understood that the the Villian with the flush draw (UTG+1) only has 7 outs out the 9 unseen hearts because J/images/graemlins/heart.gif or K/images/graemlins/heart.gif give Hero the boat, but I'm missing why a couple of respondents agreed that the denominator of the probability fraction is 44 in this case.

After the turn there 46 unseen cards, so wouldn't the probability that the Villian wins be 7/46, making Hero a winner in 39/46 plays?

EDIT: I just realized that since we're all pegging Villian for two hearts in the pocket, there are in a sense only 44 unseen cards remaining - 52 minus the four in the Hero & Villian's hands and the four on the board. But now I'm confused why Villians betting behavior couldn't also indicate trip-6's or trip-J's, which would crush Hero unimproved (and leave either of them with equal outs on the turn & river). I guess I don't really have a question; just confusion about how sweet those trip-deuces really are. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[Redd]

44 cards come from us assuming we know that villain is on a flush draw, so we know (our 2 hole cards)+(4 community)+(villain's 2 hearts of some sort) = 8 cards. 52-8=44 unknown cards, nine of which are hearts.

AFAIK, this is for the sake of the example. You would almost never be sure enough of the flush draw to assign an opponent's cards a numerical value like this when calculating odds. Hopefully the gurus will correct me if I'm wrong?

[Aaron W.]

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But now I'm confused why Villians betting behavior couldn't also indicate trip-6's or trip-J's, which would crush Hero unimproved (and leave either of them with equal outs on the turn & river). I guess I don't really have a question; just confusion about how sweet those trip-deuces really are.

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Set over set happens, it sucks when it does, but it's not something to fear.

One indication that it isn't a set is that Villain had two opportunities to 3-bet his hand and didn't do it. Sets are powerful hands that should be bet/raised/capped in many situations. If Villain had an overset (which is possible) he screwed it up pretty badly and Hero wins by not losing as much as he might have.

Welcome to the forums. It's a good place to be.

[Kenrick]

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Edit: My own thoughts: Don't two-bet the turn. Flush draws wouldn't fold to a bet anyway, so give the others a chance to do something and get more in the pot. Also cuts my losses if the flush does hit.

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Screw that. Raise and hope things go your way. If everyone folds, I don't mind. I've got a set of mighty 2's, so kiss my ass with your flush-draw junk.