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Wario
12-31-2004, 07:40 PM
How bad is my turn and river play?

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

Thanks.
Wario
12-31-2004, 10:02 PM
Anyone?
pointcount
12-31-2004, 10:55 PM
I posted a similar thread the other day where the villan came alive when the board paired. The difference was in my situation he came alive on the river so I only had to call one bet as opposed to calling 2 BB down. My instinct is to fold here.

Lets say villan tries to bluff this 10% of the time. Therefore 90% of the time you will lose 2 BB (on calling down) and 10% of the time you will win 4.75 BB (total pot - your investment). You can obviously play with this number but you must realise for it to be a +EV move to you villan has to bluff more than 30% of the time. Without any of this read dependent information available however, I would throw this away.
pointcount
12-31-2004, 10:56 PM
As a further note I didnt add the possibility of spiking one of your 2 outs (T's), but I think this is negligible considering the size of the pot.
Wario
12-31-2004, 10:59 PM
I agree with folding the turn but I still think it is quite close if you consider villian could be betting a low pocket pair or an Ace here.
pointcount
12-31-2004, 11:16 PM
Like I said depends on your read on villan. Are you going to win 30% of the time or more?

It is close, but a fold IMO.
Entity
12-31-2004, 11:40 PM
I think your turn and river play are fine. Villain will bet an Ace here a surprising amount of the time.

Rob