Capping With Jacks

[Lost Wages]

Only played a few hands against preflop limp-reraiser but so far he has been tight passive. Others are loose passive. Not really sure I have a question here, just wondering if anyone plays it different.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG folds, CO calls.

Turn: (12 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB calls, Hero folds, CO folds.

River: (14 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB folds.

Final Pot: 15 BB

Lost Wages

[BottlesOf]

Nope, seems fine.

[k_squared]

I would fold after the flop. A capped pot with two over cards and two opponents... You are drawing at best to 2 cards, at best and that is a 1 to 22 shot (and you might be drawing dead or to one out if someone else has the diamond draw that kills the J of diamonds). The flop came bad! It is time to let it go, especially against a player you peg as TA. One over card and I might play (and do so aggressively) but two and you are dead to most hands which tight players will 3 bet (AA, KK, QQ, AK) and hands they might three bet (KQs, AQs, KJs, QJs etc.) There are very few hands that are worth three betting that you can beat after that flop, especially with a diamond draw you can't back into!!! FOLD, and FOLD FAST.

Also, if I had the J of diamonds I would definately play!!!

-K_squared

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold on after the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 2 outter is a 23:1 shot. Hero is getting 22:1 to call; add in the implied odds if he hits and it's an easy call.

Haupt_234

[Harv72b]

I'm not so sure it's a good idea to cap with JJ against a tight passive player. If he's 3-betting, he's probably got higher pockets than you.

With the size of the pot I don't think you fold for 1 SB on the flop. Yes, you're drawing thin, but the implied odds are significant to say the least if you hit another J (or catch your backdoor straight). The check/fold on the turn is also good.

[Piiop]

Also has BD str8 potential.

[k_squared]

IT ISN'T REALLY 2 OUTS!!! You can't count this as 2 outs because they will not definately give the the best hand if they are hit. Against a tight passive player (as he describes him) there is even a SIGNIFICANT chance you are drawing dead to a higher set. So if you count that as 2 outs you are crazy, especially with a diamond draw that one of the other players might have (especially those other loose passive players who called 4 bets pre-flop! suited hands seem like a good possibility) not likely but possible and again weakening your '2 outs' even more.)

And a 2-outer on the turn lays ODDS of 1 to 22.5 and on the river it lays ODD of 1 to 22 the number changes because in one case you see an additional card. IT DOESN'T LAY ODDS of 1 to 23.5 but it is true that the chance of you hitting your card is 1/23.5... which is not the same thing, although you do derive one from the other. Correct me if I am wrong, but I just double checked the math on some scratch paper...

-k_squared

[Lost Wages]

Since he limp 3-bet from the button, I thought that there was a good chance his raise was B.S.

Lost Wages

[spydog]

I don't like the preflop cap. You said the limp reraiser was tight passive, so his play smells of KK or AA. If he was a loose raiser, then I wouldn't put him on such a small range of hands.

Also, the flop play can be debated. You don't have the Jd, so if it hits you may be up against a made flush. Plus, either Jack could give someone the broadway. Plus, Mr. Limp Reraiser may have trip Kings already. This means that you can't throw endless chips into the pot on the turn and river if you hit a Jack on the turn, which means the implied odds get cut. Calling is fine, but I think i fold the flop. In the long run, it's probably a breakeven play either way.

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]
IT ISN'T REALLY 2 OUTS!!! You can't count this as 2 outs because they will not definately give the the best hand if they are hit. Against a tight passive player (as he describes him) there is even a SIGNIFICANT chance you are drawing dead to a higher set. So if you count that as 2 outs you are crazy, especially with a diamond draw that one of the other players might have (especially that loose player! not likely but possible and again weakening your '2 outs' even more.)


[/ QUOTE ]

So, discount the odds of hitting the set and making someone a better hand. Now, add in the odds of hitting a BD straight. I think it evens out to around 2 outs.

[ QUOTE ]
And a 2-outer on the turn lays ODDS of 1 to 22.5 and on the river it lays ODD of 1 to 22 the number changes because in one case you see an additional card. IT DOESN'T LAY ODDS of 1 to 23.5 but it is true that the chance of you hitting your card is 1/23.5... which is not the same thing, although you do derive one from the other. Correct me if I am wrong, but I just double checked the math on some scratch paper...


[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea what you're arguing here.

Haupt_234

[spydog]

Good point about the limp reraise from the button. I would put him on a broader range of hands, probably suited broadway cards. This might tilt my flop play to call, but I still wouldn't cap preflop, so it would be an easy fold on the flop.

[BottlesOf]

You're right about the reverse implied odds. You could be against a higher set, and you might hit your set and lose to a flush. There's def. some reverse implied odds. However, he's got a redraw against a flush, and some weird backdoor straight potential.

As for your second paragraph, I can't decipher it.

However, I think the pot is big enough that it's still a call.

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the preflop cap. You said the limp reraiser was tight passive, so his play smells of KK or AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

For the most part, I think you will see this play much more often with something like 88,99, or TT then AA or KK. There is no reason to be deceptive in his position with AA or KK. But there is a reason to be crazy (he is playing party poker).

Haupt_234

[k_squared]

You think a tight passive player will limp-raise on a steal? that smells more like a big hand than a steal to me! Tight aggressive sure it is fishy, but tight passive... it is out of his norm... so either adjust your read and don't say you think he is tight passive, or play him like your read of his play would suggest! lol... If I really thought he was tight passive then I fold, otherwise if I really thought he was making a move I keep up the pressure after the flop by re-raising and see what he does. you definately don't call. Raise to put pressure on the other players and knock out a weak queen or an Ace who might be trying to stick around.

Anyone who wants to argue it is a good call should be arguing instead that it is better for you to raise. You showed strength on the flop keep showing strength. If he slows down you at the very least know you have live outs, and you might even get a chacne to win a significant pot for little more than your flop raise.

-K_squared

[Haupt_234]

No weak queen is folding getting the odds of 8:1 (assuming hero raises the flop). Also, it is very, very unlikely he is ahead at this point. The original bettor isn't going to fold his K or Q.

Haupt_234

[Lost Wages]

My read was:

[ QUOTE ]
Only played a few hands against preflop limp-reraiser but so far he has been tight passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I didn't think that he was on a steal. I thought that perhaps he was just an idiot who though something like; "Well, it's already 2 bets and I have the button so I might as well reraise".

I don't have to be right all of the time. I have 3 other random limpers trapped those times I'm wrong.

Lost Wages

[k_squared]

but if he was betting that 88 or 99 like you thought he might be would he then fold? I think he might.

And, I think there are lots of weak players out there who would fold a weak queen when they are facing two bets after having played a capped flop, not good ones, but lots nonetheless. Even some good players might if they thought they were drawing against a set or KQ or a larger Queen. 8:1 pot odds are good but not that good when you are in a pot that was capped pre-flop.

-K_squared

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
And a 2-outer on the turn lays ODDS of 1 to 22.5 and on the river it lays ODD of 1 to 22 the number changes because in one case you see an additional card. IT DOESN'T LAY ODDS of 1 to 23.5 but it is true that the chance of you hitting your card is 1/23.5... which is not the same thing, although you do derive one from the other. Correct me if I am wrong, but I just double checked the math on some scratch paper...

-k_squared

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I understand what you're saying, and the reason I'm only calling it 23.5:1 (I didn't, but I agree) is because you fold the turn unimproved. That's just for the set.

Personally, I'm calling again on the turn if I see a J or a non-diamond T, giving me 5 outs to stay in the hand. So I'm looking at 9.4:1 to call the flop. If the turn doesn't help, I fold to a bet. If I catch my turn card, my outs go up considerably...6 solid outs to the OESD, or 10 outs to the FH (although that has to be discounted for the possibility of a higher set); either way, the pot will be big enough to justify a turn call there.

You don't raise the flop because Hero certainly needs to improve to win this hand, and you want the overcalls to keep the pot big enough to continue. Besides the high likelihood that he'll be 3-bet again if he raises.

Nobody is arguing that the odds of Hero winning this hand aren't extremely remote. We're just saying that with the implied odds figured in (he can count on at least the PFLR calling down, possibly raising), he only has to back into a win about 4% of the time to make the flop call profitable.

[k_squared]

Don't get me wrong. I like the cap on the flop! I think you just needed to either decide whether he was playing passively or aggressively on that hand. If you think he was playing aggressively (and hence just raising to cap the flop without a legitimate hand) push back on the flop. If he was playing passively fold on the flop. I think your cap is good considering all the payers in the pot. You are getting great odds for a big pocket pair with all those loose passive players. I just don't like the flop play (hey I don't like my flop play a lot of the time either when I go back and watch it!!!).

-K_squared

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]
And, I think there are lots of weak players out there who would fold a weak queen when they are facing two bets after having played a capped flop

[/ QUOTE ]

I think most weak players will be more apt to call than to fold here. Especially since the pot is so big.

Haupt_234

[k_squared]

I am not saying most will fold, but enough will fold that you gain pot equity from the bet. It is all about maximizing your chances to win the pot. Calling does not do that because it allows weak draws to have an easy call. Another way to play would be to raise the turn if no scare card comes therebye facing them with a real decision. The fact of the matter is that many players don't play based on the pot-odds. They call when they think they have a chance and fold when they don't. To a weak player a bet and a raise after a pre-flop cap SCREAMS strength and will push at least a significant number out who hold weak hands that are either beating you (weak queen) or might draw to a better hand A-10 suited or unsuited, and ace, 10-9, J-10, J-9 etc.

My point is just that if you want to play the hand play it in such a way that you maximize the chances that you are going to win. With JJ in this case that means eliminating players any chance you get! The fewer you have to play against the better.

-K_squared

[ggbman]

I like the preflop play, but fold the flop. You probably have only 2 outs, and if the jack of diamonds comes you will still lose almost 1/4 of the time with a river diamond. Jacks are worthy of capping preflop on PP 3/6, but anyone with Q 2 off suit has you screwed after this flop.