Early NFL Discussion

A few of the games that looked interesting to me..


Baltimore @ Green Bay +1


Probably won't bet this one, but my gut says to go with Baltimore.. The Packers were effectively shut down last week by a strong defensive effort, and that is what Baltimore is all about.. I've also been impressed with the Ravens offensive outputs this season.. They are showing a much stronger offense with the change in QB, and I get the sense that their feeling is that they are no longer a strictly defensive team.. Their offense is nothing to write home about, but I would say that anytime a Super Bowl Champion has improved this area of their game, they must still be favourites..

Why should you stay away??.. Personally, I just don't bet against GB @ home.. Maybe will go half a unit though..


Tampa Bay @ Tennesse - 2.5


Just call this more of a gut feeling than anything else.. TB sure did look good last week against GB.. And despite what I said above, GB is a solid team (just not as good as Baltimore).. The problem with this one, is that it's a must win for Tennesse for sure.. It's tough to bet against a team that hasn't played their best ball yet, and already has their back against the wall.. Will probably not bet again, but interesting look.. If Titans lose again, I will be more convinced that they are simply not as good as everyone thinks..


Cleveland @ Cincy -2


I really like Cleveland in this game.. Couch has shown that he has game, and Cincy proved last week that their offense still needs a lot of help.. The defensive effort put out by Cleveland last weekend against San Diego really won me over.. As of now, I will probably take Cleveland, but if someone out there likes Cincy, pls post your reasons..


New Orleans @ Carolina + 5


This game has been discussed a lot already on this forum, and I must agree that I like the Saints too.. Convincing win last weekend and the fact that I don't see Carolina as a play-off team..


Denver @ Seattle + 7


Denver has played incredibly well considering the injuries they have.. The question is, will their luck run out??.. Or are they that good?.. Both teams coming off impressive wins last weekend.. The clincher to me is that I think Seattle caught Cleveland by surprise in week 1, and thus should be 1-3.. I would really appreciate some insight into this one, b/c my gut is pushing me towards Denver..


Comments??

I would not bet on Tampa-Tennesse but it should be very interesting to see how the Tampa Bay offense plays. Tennessee will not be able to score very many points against Tampa. This should allow Tampa to gamble more on offense and try throwing the ball downfield. Tony D. finally has a QB and a receiver capable of the big play. I think it will be critical to TB's success later in the season that they develop a deep passing threat. If they don't do it in this game then I think we can assign Tampa to the ranks of the mediocre.

I like GBAY .........ALOT. A Fezzik best bet this week. When is it not a good idea to fade superbowl champs with good ATS Ytd records? Fyi, GB is in a 51-17 ATS situation when applied to home dogs.

Coming off two big wins against AFC competition, this does seem to be a "flatter" spot for BAL. They move on from this with an easier stretch so what kind of effort you see here I am not sure. The pass rush could be a big factor though as Grbac is turnover prone. Green has the speed to stretch out the Ravens D a little bit. He won't gain big yards, but his outside speed should bring some attention from the safeties. All in all, I think this looks like a better spot for the Pack, but I do think the Ravens are the better team so best to pass on this one.


The only other game I would comment on is TB. I think TEN is almost done and cooked. Last week was the game to make a statement and they just didn't do it. At 0-3 and in a very tough conference, there isn't much hope. Their best chance is 3rd WC and that is a tough spot. One team is almost certain from the AFC East (Mia/Ind) and two teams are likely to be competing from the AFC West (SD/Den/Oak) so one of those teams will have to come in behind Ten for the Titans to get there. That doesn't even mention Cle or Jax who could get in the way as well. I could easily see this season going just like it did for Jax last year, high expectations, big crash.

I will be unloading on the Bucs +3 and +3.5