Outplayed with TPTK?

[Sam T.]

$10 UB 1-Table SnG:

Villain and I are about even, with t1400 or so.

It's early (blinds at maybe 15/30 - sorry I don't have the details), and I'm in LP with AQs. Two limpers to me, I raise it up to 100. BB calls, limpers fold.

Flop (Pot:~275) : Qxx rainbow.

BB checks, I bet t175, BB calls.

Turn (Pot: ~600): Brick.

BB checks, I bet t350, BB calls.

River (Pot: ~1400): Another brick. No flush possible.

With no obvious str8 on the board, BB pushes.

I went in the tank on this one. Slow playing his set? Hit his miracle two-pair on the river? Pure bluff thinking I whiffed the flop?

What do you do? You've got TPTK, but a healthy enough stack to fold and continue to play.

[TheDrone]

Given the villain's preflop limp call, the rainbow flop, and no obvious draws, I think the slowplayed set is more likely than usual. Slowplayed top two pair is possible too. With the postflop action you could have a better kicker but I think you are more likely behind. Just muck it.

[Phil Van Sexton]

Fold on river.

I think you got in trouble on the turn. You are either way ahead or way behind already. There are no draws to worry about, so you were basically value-betting 30% of your stack on the turn. This seems pretty reckless.

I'd rather check the turn. If he has a Q or a set, he will bet the river, but probably not allin since the pot wouldn't be big enough. At this point, you can safely call 300-500 on the river and hope he has QJ.

If he checks to you on river, you can then value bet 350 since you are pretty sure he wouldn't check with a hand better than yours.