memphis57
12-31-2004, 12:01 PM
Okay, we all know that online poker is rigged /images/graemlins/smile.gif Let's move on to the more interesting question of exactly HOW do they do it?
Let's say I'm in negotiations with the mafia to secure financial backing for a new offshore poker site, and I've got to make a presentation to the capo de capo tomorrow on how I plan to rig things so we make the most money. Here's an outline of my presentation. If any of you can think of additional ideas please post up.
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First of all, godfather, our basic weapon is what we call a "shift-and-replace" program. This is a computer program that sits on top of the random number generator (RNG) and uses a set of rules to determine when cheating needs to take place. Thus, we use a fair RNG to generate each deal, and then if we need an ace in a certain spot instead of a six, the "shift-and-replace" program makes the change and then keeps a record of it. In a later hand, when an ace is dealt in that same position but the program determines that a six would work just as well for our purposes, the prior change is exactly reversed. This way we can have some big accounting firm come in and audit a few million hands, *their choice*, and they're going to get exactly the same results as if the cards came straight from the RNG.
Okay, how are we going to use this shifter program? Well, four ways.
First, we want to generate more betting activity. We get paid off the rake, so the more the pigeons bet the more we make. There are lots of ways to do this. For example, if more than one player has an ace as their hole card, any ace that shows on the board is going to make them bet. So the program will be set to increase the frequency of aces showing on the board when 2 or more have aces as hole cards.
Another example: people tend to bet good pocket pairs, and when they encounter resistance, they assume the opponent doesn't know what they hold so they are more likely to raise. Thus, in any hand where one player has a pocket pair, we will increase the frequency of a second player drawing a higher pocket pair.
Second, we want the players to play more hands and more streets. When they fold, we can't rake any more. To do this, we will have the shifter program monitor hands that are folded. Then 20% of the time we will deal cards that would have made the folded hand into a monster hand. Thus, if someone folds 72o, we'll deal a flop of 772. This program will target new players especially, as they are still evolving their style of play.
Third, besides increasing the rake as in the first two steps, we might as well get some direct money for all the trouble we're going to. Thus, we will set up dummy players to the number of 1% of our total player base. We can buy bots to play their hands automaticaly, and in addition use the shifter program to give them more than the average number of wins. But we'll monitor their win rates and work things so that these players fall evenly distributed over the bottom 80% of the winning group of players. Since only about 10% of all players are winners over the long run, our 1% dummies should capture about 10% of the total winnings from the site.
Finally, those of us in the know ought to get a little something extra. Thus, we will have dummy bot accounts set up for our benefit, and the shifter program will be set up to place us evenly distributed over the top 20% of winning players.
So there you have it, godfather. More rake, more action, looser players, 10% of all winnings and a little bonus action for the people you like best - and still an apparently random deal audited by a top accounting firm. Now doesn't this look like a good investment?
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FOOTNOTE: Yes, this is all tongue-in-cheek. i actually think the sites are 99% likely to be completely fair. But if there is any cheating going on, I expect it is actually far more complex and sophisticated than even what I have described here. It would take a very good study of external results to detect any cheating with a high degree of statistical significance to the findings.
Let's say I'm in negotiations with the mafia to secure financial backing for a new offshore poker site, and I've got to make a presentation to the capo de capo tomorrow on how I plan to rig things so we make the most money. Here's an outline of my presentation. If any of you can think of additional ideas please post up.
************************************************** ***
First of all, godfather, our basic weapon is what we call a "shift-and-replace" program. This is a computer program that sits on top of the random number generator (RNG) and uses a set of rules to determine when cheating needs to take place. Thus, we use a fair RNG to generate each deal, and then if we need an ace in a certain spot instead of a six, the "shift-and-replace" program makes the change and then keeps a record of it. In a later hand, when an ace is dealt in that same position but the program determines that a six would work just as well for our purposes, the prior change is exactly reversed. This way we can have some big accounting firm come in and audit a few million hands, *their choice*, and they're going to get exactly the same results as if the cards came straight from the RNG.
Okay, how are we going to use this shifter program? Well, four ways.
First, we want to generate more betting activity. We get paid off the rake, so the more the pigeons bet the more we make. There are lots of ways to do this. For example, if more than one player has an ace as their hole card, any ace that shows on the board is going to make them bet. So the program will be set to increase the frequency of aces showing on the board when 2 or more have aces as hole cards.
Another example: people tend to bet good pocket pairs, and when they encounter resistance, they assume the opponent doesn't know what they hold so they are more likely to raise. Thus, in any hand where one player has a pocket pair, we will increase the frequency of a second player drawing a higher pocket pair.
Second, we want the players to play more hands and more streets. When they fold, we can't rake any more. To do this, we will have the shifter program monitor hands that are folded. Then 20% of the time we will deal cards that would have made the folded hand into a monster hand. Thus, if someone folds 72o, we'll deal a flop of 772. This program will target new players especially, as they are still evolving their style of play.
Third, besides increasing the rake as in the first two steps, we might as well get some direct money for all the trouble we're going to. Thus, we will set up dummy players to the number of 1% of our total player base. We can buy bots to play their hands automaticaly, and in addition use the shifter program to give them more than the average number of wins. But we'll monitor their win rates and work things so that these players fall evenly distributed over the bottom 80% of the winning group of players. Since only about 10% of all players are winners over the long run, our 1% dummies should capture about 10% of the total winnings from the site.
Finally, those of us in the know ought to get a little something extra. Thus, we will have dummy bot accounts set up for our benefit, and the shifter program will be set up to place us evenly distributed over the top 20% of winning players.
So there you have it, godfather. More rake, more action, looser players, 10% of all winnings and a little bonus action for the people you like best - and still an apparently random deal audited by a top accounting firm. Now doesn't this look like a good investment?
************************************************** ****
FOOTNOTE: Yes, this is all tongue-in-cheek. i actually think the sites are 99% likely to be completely fair. But if there is any cheating going on, I expect it is actually far more complex and sophisticated than even what I have described here. It would take a very good study of external results to detect any cheating with a high degree of statistical significance to the findings.