Garland vs. SlyAK...Guess what we had. Then critique us!

[Garland]

Location: The Gaming Club
Stakes: $1/$2 NL ($200 Max)
Players: Extremely poor and loose. It runs a little on the passive side in terms of aggression. I was hanging out cleaning up on players who are willing to pay off some really big bets on some pretty marginal hands. This may be better than Ultimate Bet...we shall see.

I'm making a guest appearance on a foriegn site clearing a very generous bonus from TGC.

The hand histories are a bit of a hassle as bisonbison's converter doesn't support this and they don't declare stack sizes. I'll say that I had ~$200 and SlyAK had about the same.

As soon as I joined the table, I saw SlyAK and immediately went into the "brown trout" *wink* *wink* introduction mode. So he knows I'm from here, and I'll assume he'll play me accordingly.

At the time this is 5 handed.

Garland in SB (posting $1): Guess!
SlyAK (UTG): Guess!

Preflop: SlyAK raises to $8, folds around to Garland, call $8, BB folds

Pot ($18)
Flop: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif

Garland checks, SlyAK bets $13, Garland calls $13

Pot ($44)
Turn: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Garland checks, SlyAK checks

Pot ($44)
River: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Garland bets $20, SlyAK calls $20

1) How'd we do?
2) What did Garland and SlyAK have?

Garland

[soah]

Sly could raise UTG with AA, KK, QQ, AK, and maybe JJ. We can rule out JJ because he'd get more money in the pot postflop with it, and I think AK is a pretty clear fold on the river. Checking any of AA/KK/QQ on the turn would be fairly standard, but he's most likely to check with AA as there are no overcards that could hit on the river (in case you've called his flop bet with AK). QQ or KK would be a little more likely to bet the turn than AA but I wouldn't draw any conclusions when he checks of course.

You could have just about any pocket pair here I think. JJ and KK are likely to be played this way. Maybe AA if you don't want to scare him away preflop and just hope to pick up a few more dollars postflop without playing a big pot. With smaller pairs you might call on the flop if you think the later betting (or lack thereof) will tell you whether you're up against an overpair or just AK. That's rather iffy though. Note that QQ and 33 should be played about the same on this flop given Sly's range of hands. But from a psychological standpoint you may be more willing to call the flop with QQ than 33 since you "expect" a QQ overpair to usually be the best hand. Only non-pocketpair hand you see the flop with here is AK (or maybe some suited connector which you turbo-muck postflop) but I see no reason at all that you'd call a bet on the flop when at the very best you're splitting the pot. Maybe you're hoping to bluff him out of his half of a split pot? That seems a bit far-fetched. So I conclude your most likely hands are KK or JJ, AA and QQ being next most likely, worse pairs being possible but not so likely, and AK being improbable but not completely ruled out. Hands like AJs, QJs, and JTs would also be played this way postflop but I expect you'd muck them preflop most of the time, so I'll include them at the end of the list as "improbable but possible."

So in true gambling fashion, I'll lay some odds on how likely I view each holding:

Sly:
AA - 40%
KK - 35%
QQ - 30%
other (AK?) - 5%

You:
AA - 8%
KK - 20%
QQ - 7%
JJ - 20%
TT - 4%
99 - 4%
88 - 4%
77 - 3% (fewer combinations, given the river card)
66 - 4%
55 - 4%
44 - 4%
33 - 4%
AK - 2%
AJs - 2%
QJs - 2%
JTs - 4%
other/leftover percentage points I'm too lazy to redistribute - 4%

Disclaimer: If the results do not match my predictions, then it's because you guys horribly butchered the hand, and not because I'm wrong. =P

[Garland]

Hi soah,

I like your layout of the odds here. But what about AJ for SlyAK? Doesn't it warrent more merit than 5% other? It is 5-handed, and he is first to act...

Garland

[kor]

SlyAK - 1010, QQ or AJs I think his check on the turn showed weakness following his big bet off the flop. If he were holding KK, AA I think he would have pushed again on the turn; but by checking the turn it appears he is fearful of you holding an over pair that would beat his pair of 10's, Q's, or J's

Garland - JJ, KK, AA To call the bet preflop and after the flop it is apparent you have a solid hand. Your large bet on the river after check calling the entire way gives makes it appear that you were holding back a monster JJ or you're very confident that your KK or AA is the best hand after SlyAK checked on the turn.

[DBowling]

edit: misread river action
Garland had TT and played it ok, questionable flop call. I would prefer a raise in this spot if you think you have the best hand or a fold if you dont. I dont see the point in a river bet. I cant imagine you getting called by a worse hand, so maybe this is a blocking bet. (if you had JJ, played it bad)
SlyAK had QQ and played it pretty bad. With QQ he missed some value on the turn, no way you check this hand behind. And on the river, thats a pretty clear raise

[random]

AA for sly
JJ for you

[soah]

Wow. I totally missed the part where you said the game was five handed. This would definately make his range of hands more complicated. He would be opening with a wider range of hands, although presumably folding a number of them to your river bet.

Since his range of opening hands is wider, you would call the flop bet with a wider range of hands.

Without redoing the entire list, I'd think AJ/KJ should be added in at roughly the same frequency as AA/KK/QQ, and there's some chance he could show up at the end with TT or 99.

As for your hands, I think that five-handed you're more likely to come over the top of him preflop with KK than in full ring facing the UTG raise since his UTG raise is much less likely to be AA five-handed than in full ring. And five-handed play is usually aggressive enough that I think you'd start going to war preflop with AA. On the flop, since Sly could easily be betting with AQ, KQ and various other hands, I think you're more likely than in full ring to call (or raise?) his bet with weaker holdings.

My new list for you would increase the probabilities of you having QQ or a medium to small pocket pair, and perhaps decrease the probabilities of AA or KK. JJ whiffing at a turn check-raise is my favorite guess.

On a random note, I wish I had combined all pairs lower than JJ into a single item, as they'd all get played exactly the same. So maybe something like this:

AA - 5%
KK - 5%
QQ - 15%
JJ - 25%
33-TT - 40%
other - 10%

And while I'm at it, I might as well redo his list too...

AA-QQ - 50%
xJ (not JJ) - 30%
TT-88 - 15%
other - 5%

[Garland]

Would like more guesses /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Siawyn]

Okay, I'm new at this but this is what I think.. with it being 5-handed that makes it totally different than a full ring game.

I would assume SlyAK would raise with more hands, yet being UTG he's still going to need a decent hand to be raising here. I would think he had a hand such as a medium to big ace, or any pair here.

The fact that you just called it out of position tells me you definitey had a legit hand here. Pair tens and up or a big ace, I wouldn't be surprised to see a monster hand here, because short-handed you expect the preflop raiser to follow up aggressively on the flop.

The flop really makes me wonder though. Your check would be standard for a big pair here, because there's no draws on that board whatsoever. Yet when he bets (which means very little, he should be firing here) you call him.

Turn: This fills in the picture a lot more. You both want to see a cheap showdown.. well at least SlyAK does. You could have a true monster there though and was hoping he'd take another stab. I'm putting Sly on AQ or AK at this point.

River: If you made the same read, and you're holding AK here, you just might be able to move him off a small pair, or make him fold AK himself. Or if you have a small pair, you're value betting it here, convinced you can push him off a slightly higher pair.

My problem is figuring out which of those 2 scenarios this is. For Sly to call I think he has a pair here, probably a medium one, and I'm going to guess that you had a medium pair as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see a showdown of 7s vs 8s here.

[Pokerho]

Garland has AJ(maybe suited), SlyAK has TT or 99?

[okayplayer]

Seeing as this is 5-handed, and players' skill level... I would put you guys on:
Pre-Flop:
SlyAK: Med-high PP + & AK-AT.
Garland: PP through TT and AA (I will assume KK-JJ will re-raise) & AK-AJ.

Flop (J22r):
SlyAK: I think the only one we can rule out is JJ, assuming that he would slowplay it here.
Garland: His check-call indicates some strength (I'm assuming if he wants to blow a bluff out he will raise here), so this narrows it to: AJ, 22 (!), 99, TT, AA.

Turn (2):
SlyAK: he checks after you check indicating some weakness (I think he would value bet most strong hands here...). I now rule out: KK, QQ, AJ. He may check AA here.
Garland: the check inidicates he thinks he is chopping this pot and will only get called or raised by hands that beat him - or he wants to see a cheap river and get a better feel for his opponents hand. I think this leaves AJ, 99 or TT.

River: (7)
Garland now bets (~ half pot) - indicating some strength (or is trying to take down the pot with a marginal hand after seeing weakness from SlyAK on the turn). I would narrow his hands down to 99 or TT (maybe AJ, but I think AJ may have put in a bigger bet to get some more value from his hand). For guessing sake, I say 99.
SlyAK only calls the river indicating a marginal hand, but he's not calling with A high so we can rule out AK/AQ/AT. I think he raises with AA here. So that leaves 99 or TT. Since I guessed Garland had 99, I'll say SlyAK had TT.

Kind of funny, I narrowed their hands down to the same two holdings... I'm guessing I'm wrong and someone misplayed their hands. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Garland]

Garland: K/images/graemlins/club.gifK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
SlyAK: Q/images/graemlins/club.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

My thoughts on all the streets

Preflop: SlyAK has been playing a pretty tight game so far even if it had been for less than an hour. I have to respect his UTG raise, but with KK, I can't respect it too much /images/graemlins/grin.gif. I wanted to play it soft for two reasons

1) In the off chance he actually has AA, I will lose less by playing KK soft.
2) If he has something like AK, AQ, AJ, QQ, JJ, TT, I felt he could let go of those hands if I went over him, especially knowing where the reraise came from! I was not about to let him off the hook so easily, especially if he's the type to fire a bet on an innocuous flop with nothing.

Flop: Unless he has AA or JJ, I have him. I check and he does the expected 2/3 pot bet, and I smooth call.

Turn: A meaningless card. I fully expect him to check anything but JJ. I expect him to push hard with that. Given he didn't, he respects the fact that *I* could have JJ or a better pair

River: A blank. I'm not about to let this go without getting some value out of this hand. The key was how much I could bet that he would call marginal hands with. I bet about the amount that I felt he would call lesser hands such as a pair under the J thinking I might be bluffing. If he should go over, then I'll have to deal with the reality he might have slowplayed JJ, but I think I can fold to any significant raise knowing my opposition. Given what he had, I'm pretty sure he'd actually call a pot-sized river bet, but that was the only specific hand that I think works out.

Now let us really have it /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

Garland

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: SlyAK has been playing a pretty tight game so far even if it had been for less than an hour. I have to respect his UTG raise

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense, but telling us this in the intial post would have helped with the analysis. =P My second post, when I realized it was short-handed, was based upon the assumption that each of you were playing more aggressively preflop with hands that you would play much softer (or not at all) in full ring. If he is playing very tight from UTG despite being five-handed, then my initial post seems to cover things pretty well despite the fact that I believed you were playing full ring.

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
If you expect him to check the turn with anything except JJ, then you should have bet the turn, IMO. You missed some value there for the times he has AK/AQ/AJ

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your thoughts jslag.

My response to you would be that the turn action is a bit results oriented. Keep in mind that if I'm beating my opponent, my opponent has only up to 3 outs. I'm not at all concerned about him catching up, only getting the most out of my very valuable hand against a skilled player.

Yes, he might call the turn *and* the river with QQ (and AA as well!). But if he should have an underpair to the J, I would think he'd be reluctant to call the turn knowing there is a potential for another big river bet. I'm looking for a way to extract value from the times he has a hand such as TT, 99, AJ, QQ at the same time losing less if he has something like AA or JJ. And I find it odd that you would even consider that my opponent would call the turn with AK or AQ, unless I misunderstood your "missed value" message. This was my thought process when I checked the turn.

Garland

[BobboFitos]

Sly has AQ gar has 33

[BobboFitos]

Ok I was off base.

I think you guys both underplayed your hands bigtime. It's 5 handed. Even with all the respect you're giving each other, (and I'd probably do likewise...) I think you both missed perspective value vs a lot of hands.

You guys gotta remember that in poker alot of winnings do come from what you save, but alot more comes from where you win more...

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Turn: A meaningless card. I fully expect him to check anything but JJ. I expect him to push hard with that. Given he didn't, he respects the fact that *I* could have JJ or a better pair

[/ QUOTE ]

If you expect him to check the turn with anything except JJ, then you should have bet the turn, IMO. You missed some value there for the times he has AK/AQ/AJ, you can't let those hands have a free river card. I would think nearly any turn bet is going to also be called by his QQ, especially since you're 5-handed and a lot of hands might make a probe bet on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice post islag. I posted my comments without reading others' thoughts, and I echo this. ESPECIALLY 5 handed.

I will repeat I understand the caution of playing vs another "well respected/good player" but you should understand that doesn't give you free reigns to underplay everything /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Siawyn]

Pretty much agreed... being 5 handed was the key. I didn't expect to see both of them have monster hands. Yet on the other hand the QQ limited his losses vs KK. The KK definitely lost some value here. I'm trying to think of a line to extract the most though. Min-check raising the flop, and then leading out with modest bets on the turn and river, perhaps? Nothing close to pot-sized bets, just betting like 1/3rd to 1/2th the pot on the turn. You're way ahead of almost every single hand, and only crushed by 2 that you could put on him raising with.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
My response to you would be that the turn action is a bit results oriented. Keep in mind that if I'm beating my opponent, my opponent has only up to 3 outs. I'm not at all concerned about him catching up, only getting the most out of my very valuable hand against a skilled player.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're right, maybe my thoughts were too results oriented too. I saw after posting my thoughts of a small pair vs ace high call down that it was two big pairs (KK v QQ) 5 handed and very little fireworks, so I wondered how the pot was so small.

Your explanation makes sense.

However, I still feel differently, because although you have no need to protect your hand, I think a value bet is in order, because...

I'm not limiting his hand range to that small a range, nor am I limiting his turn calling range to that small a range.

If he is in fact that (weak?) tight 5 handed, you should be bluffing him every pot. Or atleast putting as much pressure profitably.

[BobboFitos]

KK definately limited his losses, I know that. Thing is I disagree (although it has merits/I'm not saying it's wrong) that KK 5 handed should be played to limit your losses vs a potential AA.

If I'm Garland, I bet that turn. Probably in a full game, too. I'm assuming a jack is going to check behind the turn but will call me, and a small pair might call me down as well, and there's no need to give a free 2 out whenthey would pay for it. (although ability to value bet the river might counter balance that) What could possibly raise me on the turn barring a bluff? JJJ22 has only a 2 outer to fear, and it's more likely they would get value from a missed AK or something than a freak overpair. We can rule out quads as there's nothing a 2+2er is calling a raise with except 22, and last time I checked "fives" are not possible hands...


Ok, I've gone on a posting fluerry on this thread, pretty interesting stuff.

[soah]

Your bets can only get you value if your opponent calls them. Checking the turn surely increases the range of hands with which your opponent will call a river bet, no? If Garland bets the turn and gets called, then what's his river plan? Bet some more? He doesn't want to play a big pot with one pair on a drawless board. Going nuts with one pair against a solid opponent is a method for winning the least when ahead and losing the most when behind.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
Your bets can only get you value if your opponent calls them. Checking the turn surely increases the range of hands with which your opponent will call a river bet, no? If Garland bets the turn and gets called, then what's his river plan? Bet some more? He doesn't want to play a big pot with one pair on a drawless board. Going nuts with one pair against a solid opponent is a method for winning the least when ahead and losing the most when behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Soah, one pair on certain flop textures can be quite valuable.

On this board it's clear a bet on the turn will get a call from a Jack, which is a very possible/likely holding of your opponent.

Plan on the river would be to either check/call or block bet, depending on opponent.

[SlyAK]

I play this hand a lot differently if its not against a 2+2er. (Plus, I am in a pretty bad slump, and I am probably leaning weak-tight because of this). I put Garland on a medium to high PP, AK, AQ, KQs, AJs when he called my PF raise.

On the flop, I bet the 2/3 pot amount because I didnt want to scare away medium PP's.

Turn: I check behind because I dont want to get trapped by a huge hand here, and I know Garland could be very strong (JJ is certainly possible with the check-call flop line). My plan is to call any bet on the river, and bet if its checked to me.

When he bets the river I entertained the idea of raising but I thought Garland would only call a raise with KK/AA or JJ so I thought a raise was -EV, he would call with all hands that beat me and fold all hands that I was ahead of. This hand happened a couple days ago now, but this is what I remember as my reasoning.

Sly

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
My plan is to call any bet on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, I could have had you for more /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

[ QUOTE ]
I put Garland on a medium to high PP, AK, AQ, KQs, AJs when he called my PF raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

You probably shouldn't put me on AQ, KQs or AJs. I would not call these raises against standard opponents out of position, let alone a 2+2er I respect who raises UTG!

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Sly. All in all, I think we played the hand pretty well.

Garland

[SlyAK]

[ QUOTE ]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My plan is to call any bet on the river


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Damn, I could have had you for more .

[/ QUOTE ]


I meant any reasonable bet, say up to $35 or $40. The only reason I thought you might call with KQs, AJs, etc, is because the table was shorthanded at the time. Otherwise, I dont think there is any chance you are calling with those hands.

I think I saved some money playing the hand like I did, (that doesnt make it correct, but no reason to play a big pot with a 2+2er when there are plenty of mediocre to poor players around, although you'd never know it from my -$250 for the night).

Sly

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
You probably shouldn't put me on AQ, KQs or AJs. I would not call these raises against standard opponents out of position, let alone a 2+2er I respect who raises UTG!


[/ QUOTE ]

5 handed you wouldn't lower your calling requirements? I probably would throw away KQ as well, and maybe AJ, but 5 handed the chance AQ is dominated is very, very small.

[ QUOTE ]
All in all, I think we played the hand pretty well.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you guys did play it well, NH both of you.
Still think both of you missed a bet, but it WAS played well, given you both know the other to be a thinking opponent.