Self analysis on a steal hand, 2+2 advice much appreciated.

[jacks321]

Looking back at this hand, I can see I played it quite badly. But as I am still fairly new to MTT's, I thought I would post it anyway, add my own input as to how it could have been better played and get other 2+2ers input to see if I'm on the right track. I've been mulling over this hand today and trying to come up with some better solutions.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t32078)
BB (t154179)
UTG (t38438)
UTG+1 (t114338)
MP1 (t29690)
MP2 (t100219)
MP3 (t36309)
CO (t39591)
Hero (t91253)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t4000, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t10000</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls t6000.

I'm on a steal here, and 10000 is too weak a bet to expect to steal. A better bet would have been around 15,000, right?

Flop: (t21600) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets t8000</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t20000</font>, UTG+1 calls t12000.

I think Villain has a weak ace here and is testing me so I fire off a good size bet to try to push him off his hand. He probably calls sensing weakness from my PFR. At this point, I should probably fold to a turn bet. Should I have reraised him here or simply folded?

Turn: (t61600) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets t8000</font>, Hero calls t8000.

It's a small bet in a huge pot. Is he trying to trap me with something big? I'm lost on this street.

River: (t77600) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets t12000</font>, Hero folds.

???

Final Pot: t89600

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

I think your standard preflop raise should be somewhere in the range of 4xBB.

I'd probably fold the flop when UTG bets into me.

[tiger7210]

A lot depends on your read on the villain.

Your 1 st mistake was you definitely should have raised to ~ 16k preflop if you wanted to steal it without a flop.

2nd mistake which is very read dependent is if you wanted to push him off his hand on the flop you have to be willing to grab your balls and take it away. His bet on the flop made the pot ~30,000. You have to ask yourself how much am I willing to risk on this follow- up semi- bluff all the way through.

You were obviously willing to call another 8000 chips on the turn which puts you at 20,000 post flop. Your reraise on the flop needed to be in the neighborhood of ~ 30000 (Pot) which would be extremely difficult to call unless he has a made hand.

That's close to 25% of his chips which is where your read on him is very important. Can he lay down what may be the winning hand or is he a loose calling station.

You can figure he probably doesn't have AA-JJ's without a raise PF. AK/AQ probably open raise preflop, AJ-Axs may have limp called as well as any middle to small pair. So your pot sized reraise on the flop gets most hands to fold except AJ/ 55's/ JJ's. Since you hold 1 of the JJ's- set of JJ's very unlikely. AJ/55's certainly possible. If he cold calls your reraise you then have to make a big decision on the turn. If he checks to you, you then decide how bad you want those chips. Push and pray he doesn't call or just shut it down and leave yourself 50,000 to fight another battle. If he bets into you again he probably isn't going anywhere and its probably time to give it up.

[jacks321]

Thank you, that's very helpful. Your posts on here have been really great in general and it's appreciated. I'm seeing in my last few posts here as well as just going back through poker tracker, that one of my biggest setbacks in tournaments is a lack of guts when it comes to semi-bluffing/bluffing. I seem to be willing to make the effort, but not full strength and that's where I'm getting myself into weird spots. I think I'm picking OK spots to bluff in but I'm not doing it effectively. I'm going to try a tournament tomorrow and take all the great advice I've gotten today and see if I can put it to good use.

[TStoneMBD]

if you and the limper only had 10BBs yourself I like this steal attempt. In a tournament against a weak limper, if I'm shortstacked I'll push in my stack of about 10BBs with a hand like JT. This clearly doesnt work in your situation tho as the BB has you covered, therefore I think youre much better off just mucking this hand. If you raise to 4xBBs you commit yourself to the pot if UTG1 comes over the top of you. I dont like the play.

[ReDeYES88]

As stated by others, the typical PF open raise should be 3xBB, with a limper at least 4x if not more (+/- 16k). Consider the price you gave UTG+1 to call PF. With the dead blinds, his limp, and your bet, the pot is 20k. He only has to call 6k more to see a flop. That's a great price with the size of his stack (3.33-1). I'd call with a wide range of hands in his position, especially if my hand was worth a limp to begin with. Also, if I'm the BB with his huge stack (154k), for that same great price I might call with any hand that likes to see multi-way action. Therefore, as a pure steal, your bet was weak and very well could have backfired and resulted in a three-way pot because of your bet size.

One more problem with your PF bet size that hasn't been mentioned is the SB. He is shortstacked and already has 2k of his 32k in the pot, and with the UTG+1 limp and your weak raise from the button (the "classic" steal position), he very well could have pushed the rest of his stack in the middle with almost any two on a steal/desparation move. Don't loose track of where the shorties are in this stage of the game, and always try to antipate when the might finally give up and push with any ace, pair, or broadway hand.

How did the rest of the tourney go with the 58k you had left?

[Sam T.]

I'm thinking about other options on the flop and turn. The weak flop bet is very suspicious, and as Tiger says your reaction depends on your read. He either has a made hand and wants to price you in, or he's a weak-tighty with a handful of air.

On the flop one option is to gird your loins for battle and make a real raise (fully prepared to ungird them and fold to a re-raise).

But what about calling? I know it's ten percent of Hero's stack, but it gives him more time to use his positional advantage. If the villain is weak, he's going to shut it down or make another weak bet, and then you can bet/come over the top and take control of the hand. If he's got a hand, he's going to dial it up, and you can fold.

It's risky, but might be worth a shot.

[SossMan]

If you are going to call the 8 on the turn, you must call the 12 on the river. You're getting 7.5:1 w/ 2nd pair. You don't think you will have the best hand 12% of the time??? See Harrington's 10% rule regarding bluffing. It says that there is always at least a 10% chance that someone is running a bluff. The 10% figure is for the rock of all rocks. Most players are closer to 15-20%. So anytime you are getting 7.5:1 on the river and a call wouldn't cripple your stack, and you have any semblence of a hand, you must call. Are you likely beat? Yes. Do you still need to call? Yes.

I don't mind folding on the turn if you are going to fold, but don't do it on the river to a 12k bet.

There are many other ways that you could have played this hand, but that fold was the most glaring error.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Villain has a weak ace here and is testing me so I fire off a good size bet to try to push him off his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

one more thing:
anyone who is willing to limp from 2nd position and call a raise w/ a weak ace isn't good enough to lay it down on the flop. Either it's a bad read, or a bad bluff...either way, it doesn't fit with what you are trying to accomplish.

-SossMan

[Sam T.]

I was doing a bit more thinking about other approaches to the hand. Granted these might have won a nice pot, but they also can end your tournament. C'est la poker.

My latest bad idea is to push the river. Your opponent has shown very little strenght thus far, and (unless he's sitting on a monster) can not have been happy that you hung around to see the river. The 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif is going to make him very nervous. Did it just complete your str8? Your flush?

Reuben and Ciaffone note that pushing a scare card like this lacks finesse, but its message is clear. Unless he's got the nut flush, he's going to have to lay down a lot of hands here.

[Lurshy]

[ QUOTE ]
one more thing:
anyone who is willing to limp from 2nd position and call a raise w/ a weak ace isn't good enough to lay it down on the flop. Either it's a bad read, or a bad bluff...either way, it doesn't fit with what you are trying to accomplish.

-SossMan



[/ QUOTE ]

That is an extremely insightful nugget of analysis.

Can't tell you how many times I am surprised by a call early in the hand, only to be surprised by a call later on. The read is correct, but the villian is not good enough to do the 'right thing'.

It also ties to what I sometimes say after I suck out with a bad call: "Save your bet next time, fundamentally I'm too stupid too fold". /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[dr_zorba]

I always get a huge kick out of the presumptions people make. About every other tournament I'll Limp early with a huge hand and bust someone OTB who thinks he can move me off my "weak" hand with a PF ALLin. HAHA - watch them go poof and disappear.
When the button or a blind doesn't cooperate with a bluff raise, you just bet your hand after the Flop instead of before.
Last night I Limped with AK UTG and busted the Button who was on a steal.
It doesn't ALWAYS work, but I'm WAY ahead.

[Brad F.]

Something that hasn't been suggested yet is that UTG+1 has a monster. UTG+1 is a very good place to limp with AA, AK, KK, QQ, and hope for that later raiser.

So if you've been watching and reading this guy, if he had been tight, I'd have him immediately with A-Q or higher at this point in time. If he's not so tight, than I guess a weak ace could be assumed, but anyone that's limping with weak ace from UTG+1 probably shouldn't be playing MTT's IMO.

So if he does have something like A-Q, he limps UTG+1, and then the classic steal position on the BB raises a weak amount. UTG+1 right then and there probably has you on a decent steal. He prepares to allow you to keep attempting the steal if the flop hits.

Flop comes A-J-X. He bets a small enough amount so that you will attempt a resteal, and then smoothcalls when you attempt it.

Fourth street comes a blank, he probably bet the small amount to get you to attempt a resteal again. At the minimum, he gets money from you or you fold.

He still figures he's ahead on fifth street, so he bets again. Fifth street was the one that kind of confused me, because up until this point I thought I had a decent read on UTG+1. But the river bet seems large for someone who figures he has the best hand.

Anyway, that was my read. This seemed to come in the mid to latter stages of the tournament since the stack sizes are larger, so the limp from UTG+1 would scare me right away. I'd just check PF, and then maybe attempt a steal on that flop if you figured he could have kings or queens.

Hope this helps. Just my read of the hand.

And Soss, your evaluation of the player if he did limp with a weak ace was right on IMO. If he limped with a weak ace, he was hoping to hit the ace and go all the way with it, regardless of the fact he might be dominated.

Brad

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
But the river bet seems large for someone who figures he has the best hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Large? He's giving 7:1 odds. Hell I wasn't even in the hand and I almost threw chips in there just to see what he had...

[Brad F.]

Nevermind on the river read. I for some reason thought he bet more than that.

Brad

[tiger7210]

Soss makes an excellent point about not calling the last 12,000 on the river. The only time you should fold here is if you can't even beat a bluff. In this case you would have then folded on the turn. If your opponent is a weak calling station he very well could be holding a pair of 22's since you really never showed any major strength. If for no other reason, its worth paying the 12000 chips to gain information on the player that could help you later on in the game. I've seen too many bad internet players call/ bet down bottom pair or Ace high for example like they had the nutz. Showing your hand here may not hurt either. If you do happen to pick up a big hand, you may be more likely to get action as you'll be perceived as loose which may make it more difficult for your opponents to get future reads on you.

[jacks321]

And that's somewhat related to another post of mine about how I bleed chips once I get ITM. This is my first orbit with this player. With no other reads to go on, I assume he's not a total calling station because he managed to make it into the top 30 one of the top 5 stacks. I think the error on the end is painfully obvious and it's one I don't tend to make in the early-mid stages of a tourney. I seem to freeze up ITM the way some people do on the bubble and make dumb mistakes because I'm thinking about the final table. Clashing with another big stack on this hand wasn't something I needed to be doing - especially if I'm not willing to put the proper amount of chips at risk (at this point I'm 3rd largest at this table and 4th overall). I guess it's something that comes with experience but any reading on later stage psychology would probably help me improve greatly.

[mosquito]

Frankly, I'm not at all fond of the decision
to go to war with a big stack.

Steal from a medium stack. I prefer to just fold this one.
Maybe I'm a stick in the mud.

Once you get called on your flop play, you're pretty
much done, unless you fell you have to call him down
because of pot odds, or whatever, but there is no reason
to initiate further action.

[mosquito]

why does he have to lay down? your betting
says you are not on a flush draw, with the exception
of a suited connector you would not have played that
way anyhow....