Value Betting an OESD or a 4 flush

[Dave H.]

Suppose, in limit, that the flop falls with 2 cards which, combined with your pocket cards, give you an open ended straight draw.

Or that the flop gives you a 4 flush.

In general, should these hands be bet for value?

[Rudbaeck]

If you got three players in with you these can be capped for value on the flop. 2 players is enough if you hold two overcards.

[dogmeat]

When you hold what can be the nut-straight or nut-flush, this is a good time to bet. If you are drawing to a non-nut hand, you might not want to do this.

When you hold a pair with your flush draw, then you have a hand that is worth betting even if it is only close to a nut hand.

My rule is I raise with this hand if there are three or more players, and raise going to the nut-flush with two or more players (and then 15% of the time I'll still raise heads up).

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[kurosh]

With only a nut flush draw, for pot equity, why do you raise with 3 other players? Flush comes in roughly 20% of the time on the next card while you're contributing 25% of the money to the pot.

[Cardzy]

[ QUOTE ]
With only a nut flush draw, for pot equity, why do you raise with 3 other players? Flush comes in roughly 20% of the time on the next card while you're contributing 25% of the money to the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you are not value betting on just the next card, you are betting it will come in by the river (2 cards to come).

[Dave H.]

1. If you don't hit the turn, do you still bet out?

2. In the case of a 4 flush on the flop, what if you hold say, 94s and the flop comes KTs + any other card?

ty

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
1. If you don't hit the turn, do you still bet out?

2. In the case of a 4 flush on the flop, what if you hold say, 94s and the flop comes KTs + any other card?

ty

[/ QUOTE ]

On the turn it usually will not make sense to bet for value. You now need at least 4, but preferably 5 other players calling. And when you have that many callers, having the nut flush becomes even more important. Also, you wouldn't want to do this with a pair on the board.

So circumstances have to be nearly perfect to value bet flush and OES draws on the turn.

gm

[BatsShadow]

Is this right? There is already gonna be money in the pot on the turn, so you have to take that into account. You aren't betting to win what your opponents will put in, you're betting to win what they will put in AND what's already in there.

I think of flush draws in terms of pot equity (SSHE). I'm willing to put in my 1/5th to make the pot as big as possible. Could someone please explain equity a little more clearly? I don't know if I'm completely correct on this one.

[jdl22]

If your equity is less than the percentage of players in the pot you represent (say your equity is 15% and there are 3 others with you so you represent 25% of players still in the hand) then you are not value betting. Consider this example:

On the turn you have some drawing hand that will come through 20% of the time on the button. The first player to act bets, the second player calls and the action is to you. The other two players will call 100% of the time if you raise. Assume also, that they will both check/call if your draw hits and one of them will bet (forcing you to fold) if you miss. Suppose also that there are x big bets in the pot when the action gets to you.

The EV of folding is 0.
The EV of calling is .2x-.8
The EV of raising is .2(x+2)-.8(2)=.2x+.4-1.6=.2x-1.2

Notice that no matter what the pot size is raising has a lower ev than calling. If the pot is large enough calling has a higher ev than folding but raising could not be correct.

It is similar with value betting. You should be in there because of the pot size, but you are actually losing money on any bets put in during that round so you don't want it to be put in.

[jogger08152]

You can't generalize.

You want lots of bets in the pot, but from multiple players. You don't value bet them heads up or against one opponent, and you don't want your bet or raise to discourage callers. You are about 2-1 against coming with these hands by the river (a little worse for the OESD), so on the flop, against more than 2 opponents, I'd be inclined to put a lot of bets in unless I was sure I was up against a set. Against 5 or more opponents (it happens surprisingly often), I'd be happy to put as many bets in on the flop as possible whether or not I was up against a set.

On the turn, you're 5-1 against your OESD coming, a little better for the flush draw. So you'd only value bet/raise if you were sure you'd have at least 5 callers. Even then I'd be cautious with the OESD, since you could be splitting if it comes. Likewise with a flush draw to less than the nuts flush.

[jogger08152]

Because it comes 33% of the time by the river, and you're going to go to the river. Again, though, be a little cautious with smaller flush draws, because you can be up against bigger flush draws, and because if you catch your card on the turn, you can still lose to a fourth suited card on the river.