NBA Title

I was just checking the odds for NBA championships for this upcoming season and one team in particular struck me as a particularly high number.. The Toronto Raptors... +2500


This is a team that was one lousy point away from beating the 76ers last year in the play-offs, and has undeniably gotten far better this season with the acquisition of the Dream, and by losing Oakley..


Towards the end of the season, Oakley was becoming more of a distraction than anything.. He was originally brought in as a team leader who could teach the younger guys the tricks of the trade.. However, this is now a team where Antonio Davis has stepped up as a big time leader, they've added Hakeem, and the whole team is overall a year older..


Some big time trades last season also greatly improved their depth.. Off the bench, they have the likes of Childs, JYD (Williams), Keon Clark, Del Curry etc..

Their starting five can also play with just about any team in the league (Vince, Hakeem, Antonio, Alvin Williams, Mo Peterson)


I could go on and on about how this team has maintained all of its positives from last season, while adding a tremendous amount of character simply by the acquisition of the Dream..


So why are they going off at such a high number??


They are at least 12 or 15 teams ranked above them (in terms of payout).. When really they are a top 10 team for sure..

ESPN recently ranked them as 7th overall.. 2nd in the East behind the Bucs..(who were 5th I believe)


Is there something I'm missing here??.. Is there a possibility that they are being overlooked because of the fact that the team is still relatively young (franchise I mean).. Maybe because it's a Canadian franchise that isn't always being shown on ESPN??


As I see it, they are one of the few teams who can be effective at containing the Lakers because of their speed, and the number of guys they could play at centre..


They were 3rd last year in rebounding, and now they've added Hakeem.. I pity the team that tries to keep the Dream, Antonio, and JYD all off the boards..


Any thoughts??

I like your reasons. Good post. I'll add more to what you wrote. First year last year with Wilkens as coach. Raptors made great strides with him at the helm. If you still believe Lenny can coach (I do) you have to think Raptors will build on last year. Has Carter reached full potential yet? I don't think so. Maybe they'll start calling offensive fouls on Shaq this year.

Still not as ridiculous as Sacramento being 25-1. I bet that one and its still 25-1. I agree though, the odds should be a bit lower than that. However I think the East will be more competitive this year and the balance of power won't quite be so pronounced at the top. This means a tougher road to the Finals than last year as the 5-8 teams should be a much tougher first round matchup.


Also I think you overrate a team when you talk about their rebounding. Teams that rebound well are quite often just bad shooting teams, at least in this day and age, and/or teams that play a running style of play that creates more shots both ways (not an effective style for playoffs). I would put the Raptors at somewhere between 18 and 20-1 so you get a bit of an overlay there. However note that you are looking at a book with a high number, most have them under my number with many in the 12 to 15-1 range. Further don't give them too much credit with Hakeem, he should have retired a few years ago. Remember how much the Sonics were hyping getting Ewing? How did that turn out?

A link to last years NBA rebounding statistics.


http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistics?stat=teamstatreb&season=2001&seasontype=2


Let's look at WB's statement:


"Also I think you overrate a team when you talk about their rebounding. Teams that rebound well are quite often just bad shooting teams, at least in this day and age, and/or teams that play a running style of play that creates more shots both ways (not an effective style for playoffs)."


Defensive rebounding by a team has nothing to do with THEIR ability to shoot so right off the bat the statement is ill conceived and illogical. Maybe he mean "Teams that offensive rebound well are quite often just bad shooting teams." It would be more logical. I mean you don't even have to know anything about basketball to see the flaw in the logic of his statement.


The top teams in rebounding based on differential between their own rebounds and their opponents:


Philly +4.0


Charlotte +3.8


Lakers +3.4


Utah +3.3


Portland +3.1


Toronto +2.6


San Antonio +2.6


Do you see any bad teams in this bunch?


Now the worst rebounding teams based on the same statistic.


New Jersey -4.6


Chicago -3.9


Dallas -3.5


Boston -3.3


Memphis -3.2


There's only one team that was over .500 in this group and that's Dallas. Chicago, New Jersey, and Memphis all had horrendous records.


Furthermore let's look at offensive rebounding statistics from last year.


In terms of percentage of rebounds offensive vs. defensive. The highest ranked offensive rebounding teams were:


Golden State .333


Philadelphia .312


Lakers .310


Toronto .308


Utah .301


Perhaps you can lay WB's bad shooting rap against Golden State but the other 4 teams? I don't think so.


Worst offensive rebounding teams based on above statistic.


Dallas .240 (Explains why they have one of worst differentials)


New York .242


Miami .243


Boston .252


Of these teams only one was below .500 and they improved a lot when they had a coaching change. I'd suggest looking at Boston's numbers before the change and after the change if possible.


Again I wind up disagreeing with WB and pointing out where he is totally wrong which I'm sure bums a lot of people out. So be it as it's crap like he just wrote that will end up costing you money. Check out the link and make your own conclusions about rebounding in the NBA.

about rebounding. It is very important and this time WB is off the mark. Hey, no ones perfect. To put things in a lot simpler perspective, rebounding means/equals possession. If a team rebounds the ball well, they maintain or obtain possession of the ball. Very critical element in hoops. Although I respect WB and you, obviously there is a pissing contest going on between the two of you. I will say this, sometimes someone can write something that sounds great and logical and can be totally off the mark. WB posts some good stuff but dont just believe it because he wrote it. I am not knocking WB, this goes for anyone, including myself. Yes, I have had success with my shoe in of the week. Does this mean that I always know what I am talking about? Hell no. Dont fall into the trap of always following someones advice because you respect them and/or it sounds good. As you have probably noted, I do not go into a real in depth analysis of the games I post. If anyone is interested, I would be more tham happy to post some of my philosophies/strategies but I feel that sometimes we can go overboard with this stuff and make things more difficult or complex than they should be-starting to get into some of my philosophy so I'll sign off for now. Best of luck.--Big Al--

"Again I wind up disagreeing with WB and pointing out where he is totally wrong which I'm sure bums a lot of people out"


You miss the point... it's not about whether you are right or wrong or if WB is right or wrong that bums people out. It's about you attitude.


Instead of using "Wrong about Rebounding" as a subject why not try "Rebounding Revisited" or "Another view on Rebounding"


Try discussing instead of slamming. You don't need to mention how you pointed out WB was "totally wrong", let people draw their own conclusions. WB is not out to prove he is the sole holder of sports handicapping knowledge or that he is the only way to sports betting riches. WB is here to discuss and learn things, so why not choose to engage him in discussion rather than put-downs?


You write a good solid post that ends with an unnecessary and unproductive paragraph that make me want to smack you upside the head. Take out the negativity and saviour attitude and we will all get along better and have more fruitful discussions.

I suppose everytime I point out something that is wrong that it will be construed as another part of a pissing contest. What he wrote about rebounding is so blatently wrong I can't ignore it. It seems to me that many posters hear are enamored of in depth analysis which is fine but at least view the analysis critically. How good is in depth analysis when it is blatently wrong? I've also said that WB has pegged many things well but my gripe is that it's often only supported by his speculation which should be viewed as such therefore there has viewed in some sort of light that it could be wrong. If you notice that his analysis is often right when he sticks to facts and his analysis is based on what he's observed. I pointed out a misfact in Natedog's analysis but it actually went along with his opinion of Carolina. Still by pointing it out it made his analysis stronger and better in my mind because it actually backed up what he said.


You wrote:


"Dont fall into the trap of always following someones advice because you respect them and/or it sounds good."


Yes agree.


"As you have probably noted, I do not go into a real in depth analysis of the games I post."


I can't remember one post where I've made this observation.

I agree with what you are saying. FYI, my post wasnt really directed at you specifically but was meant as more of a general response to everyone, thus my comment about "as you have probably noted..."--Big Al--

When you mention that the books you use have Sacramento at 25 to 1, which books specifically??.. I live in Canada, thus am pretty much totally limited to the online gaming scene.. Is this number available on any internet books??.. I would likely lay a small wager on the Kings at a number that high also because I must admit that they have a slightly stronger team than the Raptors..

Carter, A. Williams and Mo Pete all figure to improve. The Raptors were about the hottest team in the NBA last year after their re-vamp at the trade deadline. Don't see any reason for that not to continue.


Pinnacle has the Raptors at 10 to 1 to win the East.

Expect the Raptors to improve with Hakeem but dont think that will win the NBA title. He is not the same Hakeem that played for Houston 6-7 years ago.Even then he would be hardpressed to contain Shaq the way Shaq is playing now. I dont see anyone that can stop Shaq,not Haaakeem, not David Robinson,not Mutombo.He controls the inside so much that he can score just about anytime he wants to.The only team that can beat the Lakers are the Lakers when they squabble.

What value is there at even money? Lakers are formidable, but not unbeatable. They are getting a lot of benefit of the doubt, but I think their offseason was lousy. Samaki Walker is no Horace Grant, he can't score outside 10 feet and will get crowded out for boards by Shaq. Richmond is a shell of his former self, what used to be a devastating shooter with all-world range now is a spot up 20 foot guy with only middling accuracy. Not to mention where is he going to play? He is basically a Kobe injury policy because he isn't big enough to play well at small forward. So the Lakers added nothing while the Kings made the best moves imaginable by signing CWebb and getting Bibby for almost worthless Williams.


My bold prediction is that the Kings will have the best record this season and it will come down to if they can beat the Lakers in the playoffs with home court. Not an easy task, but I won't put it past them. People easily forget how Williams took them out of some games last year with some terrible shot selection and blew the chances they had to win in LA in the playoffs. Having a real point guard that gets the ball to the right man in this potent offense will make this team a lot more formidable than people think. I look for Sac to come out with the NBA's best record at 63-19 since they can handle almost any injury well (except for CWebb) and their superior depth will give them a lot of wins in tough spots like 3 games in 4 nights or 5 games in a week. I figure an over in season wins bet on this team is better than taking your chances the Lakers don't get hurt or implode, or just plain get beaten on the way to the title.

I dont see anyone that can stop Shaq


The officials could easily stop Shaq, if they called him for all of his offensive fouls. Remember what happened in game 3 of the finals. In the second half of the game the officials called the offensive fouls he had been committing all series.


LA is very beatable if that standard is uniformly applied.


Danny

Good point, we all know the stars get the calls though. Wonder if MJ will still get as many calls if he proves to be less than he used to be. And lets just see if Shaq gets frustrated by zone defenses. He is already complaining about it, what if he has some bad nights because of it?