I think this is hand protection [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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Cerril

12-30-2004, 10:00 AM

I haven't seen too many clear cut cases where I think 'I need to free up xx outs, so I'll raise.' This seemed like one of those.

Table is slightly loose, fairly passive table that I've had a pretty good handle on. UTG+1 is sLP-P with a too-high WTS

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, MP3 calls, 3 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, MP3 folds, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero calls.

Here's the pertinent section - I love this flop but I'd really like to clear up my Aces... this seems like a perfect opportunity to do that with the bettor to my right.

Turn: (5.66 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls.

River: (9.66 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 11.66 BB

Nick C

12-30-2004, 10:07 AM

I like the flop raise. Once it's heads-up, with 15 potential outs, I think I'd cap the flop, actually.

The turn and river look good to me.

Cerril

12-30-2004, 10:22 AM

Well thing is, on the flop I've only got those outs (I discount the aces slightly), I don't think there's a chance I'm ahead in the hand with the three bet, so a cap probably wouldn't be for value heads up. It's possible though that a cap might have earned me a free card on the turn, but it also might make him less likely to call me down if I hit my diamond (more ways for him to be a loser). Hmm, I'll have to think about it

Schizo

12-30-2004, 10:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I like the flop raise. Once it's heads-up, with 15 potential outs, I think I'd cap the flop, actually.

[/ QUOTE ]

9 for flush, 4 for straight, and 3 for a pair of aces that may or may not be good.

9+4+3=16
So how do you get 15?
Can you count the aces as outs if he is raising and reraising?

With how many outs (minimum) would you cap the flop?

Cerril

12-30-2004, 10:55 AM

One of the four straight outs is also a flush out, so you can't count it twice. I'd cap with a clean 15 outs (OE straight flush draw, but he might be holding an ace and a lower pair or make a better hand than one pair by the river)

Nick C

12-30-2004, 10:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like the flop raise. Once it's heads-up, with 15 potential outs, I think I'd cap the flop, actually.

[/ QUOTE ]

9 for flush, 4 for straight, and 3 for a pair of aces that may or may not be good.

9+4+3=16
So how do you get 15?
Can you count the aces as a solid out if he is raising and reraising?

With how many outs (minimum) would you cap the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the straight cards is also a flush card (so there are only three independent straight cards).

It is true that the aces may not be good. For instance, Villain could have two pair or a set.

Cerril makes some good points about some of the advantages and disadvantages of capping the flop.

I don't think there's a set number of necessary outs for capping heads-up, but a 15-outer (with two cards to come) will hit 54.1 percent of the time. A 14-outer will hit 51.2 percent of the time. For 13 outs, it's 48.1 percent. For 12, it's 45.0 percent. (I'm taking these numbers from the back of Hold'em Poker For Advanced Players.)

But, as Cerril points out, there are other considerations besides how often one or more of our cards will hit.