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View Full Version : question for Wild Bill on middling numbers


10-09-2001, 11:20 PM
A while back WB stated that only certain numbers in pointspreads had middling value. I was wondering if you could tell me what those numbers were and their frequency. I know that in pro football 1/7 games will be decided by 3 points, but I don't know any other frequencies. Thanks for your help.


Craig

10-10-2001, 01:29 AM
I read a couple articles recently that state that since the 2pt conversion was added, getting off of 7 and 10, but not getting onto them, showed positive results. That would imply that if you could middle those numbers at -110 you would definitely be getting some value. I don't research this much, like I said I am not a big believer in middling or hedging. For the NFL, its very rare to get a true middle shot (-2.5 and +3.5 offered at the same exact time) for 3 or 7. People don't protect the 10 as much, but still NFL isn't exactly known for divergent spreads so its rare it comes up and your EV isn't that huge. I have no idea what the odds are for college, but they are reduced due to higher scoring games.