When you're getting odds to call w/ any 2...

[ZeeJustin]

Prize payouts: 4500/2500/1800/1200. Note that we're already in the money.

***** Hand History for Game 1366092002 *****
NL Hold'em $1000 Buy-in + $65 Entry Fee Trny:8259991 Level:7 Blinds(200/400) - Thursday, December 30, 01:35:00 EDT 2004
Table Step 5 #983602 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: sukfukcombo ( $2940 )
Seat 3: Rhoden ( $4470 )
Seat 4: ZeeJustin ( $800 )
Seat 6: paul1114 ( $1790 )
Trny:8259991 Level:7
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ZeeJustin [ Js 6d ]
paul1114 is all-In [1790]
sukfukcombo calls [1790].
Rhoden folds.
ZeeJustin folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Td, Ks, 7h ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9c ]
** Dealing River ** [ Qs ]
paul1114 shows [ 4c, 4d ] a pair of fours.
sukfukcombo shows [ 6s, 6c ] a pair of sixes.
paul1114 finished in fourth place and won $1200.
sukfukcombo wins 4180 chips from the main pot with a pair of sixes.
paul1114 has left the table.

[ddubois]

I wasn't sure that I beleived you had odds to call with 'any 2', so I checked PokerStove:

Hand 1: 36.3063 % [ 00.35 00.02 ] { AA-22, AKs-A8s, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-A9o, KQo-KJo, QJo }
Hand 2: 44.8464 % [ 00.43 00.02 ] { AA-66, AKs-A9s, KQs-KJs, AKo-ATo, KQo }
Hand 3: 18.8473 % [ 00.18 00.00 ] { J6o }

Interesting indeed. However, I'm not sure I beleive you have odds to call with 'any 2' according to the ICM.

Note that even though you would have tripled up, the outcome here was still rather nice: You made $600 by folding, and tripling up may not have had any impact on your final placing.

[ZeeJustin]

What's ICM?

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
What's ICM?

[/ QUOTE ]

Independent Chip Model, a tool for calculating prize equity based on stack size. It disregards blind size and assumes that all the players are equally skilled.

For more info, check out this thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1122239&page=&view=&s b=5&o=

I'd be very interested in hearing your opinion on its usefulness.

[stocktrader23]

Being that party poker uses RNG and the board would have been different if you had called you can feel better knowing you most likely wouldn't have won.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be very interested in hearing your opinion on its usefulness.


[/ QUOTE ]

It looks very useful. For most good poker players, it should be trivial to come up with a rough estimate by doing some basic algebra, but should at the very least save some time, and help w/ accuracy.

[UMTerp]

I think it may be useful for comtemplating an all-in decision in the earlyish stages, but I find that when the blinds get significant (200-400 and higher) and you're shorthanded, your postion relative to the blinds in the upcoming hand or two carries so much weight that it renders the ICM calculator pretty useless.

At the very least it's good for SNG newbies to play around with and learn the relative value of their stacks though.

[Myst]

Easy fold, because you gain real money EV by doing so, and tripling up does almost nothing for you.

[rybones]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold, because you gain real money EV by doing so, and tripling up does almost nothing for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

is this true? by my math, and assuming there is an anti here, if ZeeJustin calls he comes away with t3700 or t3800, and is now a close 2nd to the chip leader? did I miss something?

Ryan

[citanul]

Party does not have antes in these tournaments.

However, it is true that if Z triples here, it has quite an effect. I think that he would just over triple, to what, 2600 (which is not the same as 3800). Clearly there is a huge difference in the way he can play 3 handed 200/400 with 2600 versus 400 chips. So yeah, the statement that "tripling up does nothing for him" is blatantly false.

I think that it is interesting that even Party's mtt's have no antes. For a while I thought about starting a drive to push for them. But meh.

citanul

[rybones]

even without the anti I beleive he is in the BB so he already has 400 in the pot. 400 + 800 * 3 = 3600 so his tripple up does mean a ton even without the anti.

ryan

[Myst]

OK, I was wrong in saying tripling up would do NOTHING for him. However, that the main consideration that led to his fold was the amount of times Justin would stay alive to make this play worthwile.

Does J6 look like a hand that would win at least a 1/3 of the time to two all ins in front of him? I understand that he has the rule of thumb 2-1 pot odds, but you must also take into consideration that the pot has just become MULTIWAY, meaning that Justin has less of a chance to winning the pot outright. The guy who called the all in isnt stupid; he knows Justin is about to be blinded off to oblivion, and he wouldnt call the all in without a hand (AJ+, 77+). Justin, if he calls the allin, must WIN the hand in order to stay in the tournament. He will BUST at least 80% of the time.

So 80% of the time, Justin goes out of 4th and wins $1200 in real money.

20% of the time, Justin lives, and gets 2600 in chips. Best case scenario for him is that the larger stack that called the allin probably has the better hand, and wins the remainder of the chips.

Now check the relative chip positions:
Justin: 2600 chips
Other Stack: 3100 chips
Chip Leader: 4600 chips.

True, Justin has a good shot for 2nd place and $2700 in real money. Realistically though, since the blinds are pretty high, its all in or fold time, and he will probably get into a coinflip situation to get into second place. And, once he is in second place, he will probably need to win another coinflip situation to get first place.

So, a good estimate if he calls is this:
4th place: 80% of the time he busts ($1200)
Of the 20% of the time he stays alive:
3rd place: 10% of the time ($1800)
2nd place: 5% of the time ($2700)
1st place: 5% of the time ($4500)

(.8x1200+.1x1800+.05x2700+.05x4500) =960+180+135+225= $1500

Justin makes $1500 every time he makes this call. Keep in mind this is a very OPTIMISTIC number, and the real value is probably lower.

Now lets assume that Justin folds. You must give the guy CALLING the all in credit with a hand. Even if he calls into a coinflip, Justin makes $1500 in real money just by folding (1/2 of the time other stack busts, 1/2 of the time he does not). More often than not, the guy calling the all in (according to the gap concept), will be vastly ahead. If its overpair vs pair, then Justin makes about $1700 on the fold.

Conclusion:

Folding: Justin wins anwyhere from $1500 (worst case scenario) to $1700 (best case scenario)

Calling: Justin wins AT BEST, $1500

I know that was a lot for Justin to probably process at the heat of the moment, but he instinctively made the right decision.

[hansarnic]

[ QUOTE ]
What's ICM?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is….

A theoretical model to calculate $EV in a tournament based on chip counts - most useful for deciding how to cut deals at the late stages of an MTT IMO.


It is not….

Going to tell any remotely proficient player much they didn’t already know in terms of making call / push decisions in SnGs (especially when the blinds are significant in proportion to anyone’s stack). And in actual fact in many situations I think it will give very bad advice if so used. Lastly I think it’s flawed mathematically as well (either that or I am).

[citanul]

I didn't know this until recently either, but party hand histories show the amounts players have *before* posting their blinds, not after. So, he had 400 in the pot, but 400 behind, not 800 behind.

citanul