Something that occurs with frequency

[Mikey]

Here is something that occured today and it occurs a lot actually.

I see most posts on here and they basically consist of the typical normal, AA preflop or AK preflop or QQ and then Ace hits river, blahh blahh blahh. outdrawn here and outdraw there.

Ed Miller wrote a post once about frequency so I've decided to think more about hands that happen with greater frequency and playing then right rather than harping on the Preflop monsters that don't have the emotional results I'm looking for.


I want to put up something that occurs often and I would like to know from you ( Poker Authories ) what is the best way to handle this situation.

I'm going to use some concepts that I've integrated from Small Stakes hold'em but I'm sure there is more to it than what I know.

Ok here is the hand in question.
3-6 Online


I open raise from the hijack seat (tommy angelo coined the term) with KsQc , the button (loosey goosey) calls, the SB folds and the BB comes to life with a 3-bet.
No info whatsover on the BB.

I call and the Button calls

Pot is now 9 SB (9.33 precisely)

The flop is laid down by the comptuer generated algorithim thinga ma jiggy and its

9c 3c 9s.

The BB bets out and I call and the button calls.

I call because I may be behind, I may have 2 over cards, I may have a backdoor flush draw to a non nut.

I assign myself 3 outs with a possible backdoor flush draw and value my hand at about 4 outs.

I put my opponnent (BB only) on these three holdings and I'm holding with it, JJ or AA, a remote chance of TT and a chance of AKo

I assign myself 3 outs with a BD flush draw (4 outs total) because 1/2 the time my outs are good and 1/2 the time their not if I sitck with my JJ and AA possibilities only.

so with 4 outs and getting 10.33 to 1. I have an easy call.
The button calls.

I thought about raising here but I don't didn't like it if I had to put in 3 SB to see the turn especially the way the action went preflop.

Now to the turn Ts.

BB bets out
To me.....

I think and fold.

The pot is now 7 BB.

I evaluate my outs and now I have a gutsot with two possible overs. but the gutshot is a J and my overs will only be good maybe half the time.

I guess I have 5 outs.

3 to the overs and 2 to the gutshot.

I muck.

The button mucks.

I just saw myself having a lot less outs than meets the eye.
Was my thinking correct in this hand?
Did I play my hand right?

Thanks in advance. Mikey

[StellarWind]

There is no way I call this flop with two weak overcards and trashy backdoors. Your analysis was pretty good right up to the point you completely ignored the Button sitting behind you. What if he raises and charges you extra to see the turn? What if he has a nine (or 33) and you are drawing virtually dead?

BB's possibly dominating hand is about all you can cope with right now. Even occasional trouble from Button makes playing on unprofitable.

[ZZZ]

I also see 5ish outs after the turn comes, but I see it as 3 for the gutshot and 2 for the overs. Good fold, but I don't think calling is too bad.

ZZZ

[witeknite]

I'm not sure about the hand, but I'm right there with you about HH posts. I stopped reading the SS forum for a week cause I was tired of wading through the AA, KK, QQ hands. I'd much rather read about, and discuss, a good middle pair/backdoor str8 kinda hand. I haven't had a chance to dig a couple out of PT, but I plan to soon.

WiteKnite

[John Deere]

The reason you see so many posts about "monster" pre-flop hands is because these are the hands that we, the above-average players, are playing with the most frequency. I'm not sure I would read this forum if people were asking for help with 96o and J2s in EP.

[Redd]

I'm just on loan from the Micro forums, so bear in mind my opinions are worth 10^-4% of the rest of the posters, but why wouldn't we raise this flop?

BB's pf 3-bet reduces the chance he has a nine. You've got a BD-flush draw to the third-nuts and a double-gutshot to the nuts, and two questionable overs. There's only 5 cards that help any of the small field hit the board. The pot is fairly large. Aren't these pretty much the verbatim conditions for playing overcards in SSHE?

Additionally, the bettor could definitely be betting overcards, and you could likely isolate him with a raise. Finally, the raise will give you information about his hand.

Or, am I way out of line? Would appreciate some input from the gurus out there.

Redd

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
You've got ... a double-gutshot to the nuts

[/ QUOTE ]
Are we looking at different hands or is this a terminology problem?

I see KQ on a 993 flop. That's a backdoor straight draw that can only fill one way. It is worth about 1/2 out.

A "double gutshot" is a hand like 97 on a J85 board. Either a ten or a six makes a straight and it provides 8 outs.

[ QUOTE ]
There's only 5 cards that help any of the small field hit the board. The pot is fairly large. Aren't these pretty much the verbatim conditions for playing overcards in SSHE?

[/ QUOTE ]
The 3-bet preflop suggests that BB has a better showdown hand than king-high. He probably doesn't need help from the board to win.

Contrast this situation with raising AK and getting two callers. Now when you get a 993 flop it is likely that your AK is currently the best hand and your argument would be correct.

The other big problem is sometimes BB has AK/AQ/AA/KK/QQ and we are dominated with 0-3 overcard outs. This is another problem you don't have when you raise big overcards and they just call. You won't usually see these dominating overcards and premium pocket pairs.

[Redd]

Sorry, meant backdoor draw. Thanks for taking the time to set me straight, on the terminology and the hand.

Redd

[witeknite]

My thinking is that we all play some crazy hands from the blinds, and it would be benificial to discuss ways to make a questionable situation profitible. This has us all playing hands like 96o and J2s out of position.

If we make most of our money playing well after the flop, we should all learn to deal with less than optimal circumstances.

Besides, my issue isn't with uncomfortable overcard situations. Ed himself says they can give the best of players a hard time. My problem is the glut of, "AA, should I have this coming?" posts. It's almost always either a strong yes (obvious flush/str8/set), or a big no (fish cold-cals PF and flops a junky 2pair and calls down the whole way). I realised in the first week of playing that AA and KK will make me a bunch of money in the long run, but there's always bumps in the road.

WiteKnite

[StellarWind]

What we don't discuss adequately is play in unraised pots. It's really as simple as that.