Lederer's Advice--What do you think?

[TheManInBlack]

I just saw an interview with Annie Duke and during the interview she mentioned a piece of advice her brother, Howard, gave her that she uses to this day. I can't remember it word for word but it goes something like--If you are down 30 BB in any one session, you should quit (leave the table) immediately.

What do you all think about this?

If there is a bottom(losing) figure, is there a number of BB's you should leave the table with if you are winning?

I use this general rule myself. I tend to leave a table if I am down 25-30BB or up >50BB.

[tipperdog]

Since you asked...

I think it's absurd advice. That said, dropping 30BB is grounds for a good conversation with yourself before you rebuy. Are you really the favorite you thought? Are you playing your best (and not tilting)?

Chances are strong that if you're down 30BBs it's not a good game and/or you're not playing well. However, it's possible the game is still good, and you've been the unfortunate victim several nasty beats.

If you take a sober look at the situation and honestly determine that you're still the favorite and are still playing well, it would be a huge error not to rebuy.

[Emmitt2222]

I see no point in stopping most of the time just based on what your bankroll stands at. If you are running well you have no reason to leave whatsoever and should stay in that optimal game because you have found something good. Being down, often people play too long because they want to win it back so it may be helpful if you have that problem to set a stop loss. I don't believe in either of these however and I play as long as I can unless I feel tilt coming on. If you are playing your A game there is no point in stopping no matter how much money you have.

[tipperdog]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are playing your A game there is no point in stopping no matter how much money you have.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if your A-game is worse than the game played by everyone else at the table?

[GrunchCan]

In that case, you shouldn't even be at that table. Breathing at that table is -EV, so why are you there?

[TheManInBlack]

MY POINT EXACTLY! I consider a 30BB downswing an indication of more than a couple bad beats.

[sfer]

30 BBs is nothing.

[sfer]

She also put it up on UB's website. The point, as I recall, is that (1) you might not be able to see that you can't beat the game you're playing or (2) you might not be able to see that you're not playing your best.

If you can see that conditions 1 and 2 aren't met, then 30 BBs or any loss/win amount is arbitrary and therefore useless.

[AceHigh]

Mike Caro talked about reaching a "level of misery" where your losses start to affect your play. I think it's different for each person.

I definately think a big losing session can make it hard for me to play well. Since I play mostly online, I just log off and come back and play when I feel I've recovered mentally.

[Pawtucket Pat]

I don't think this is horrible, but I don't like it either. I can see how for a beginning player who has trouble seeing the long run, it would help. I used to get really freaked out when I dropped that much at a table when I moved to 2/4. It can make you question your game and all that. But if you're sitting at a great table, it makes no sense to leave because of a downswing like that. I've been at tables where the average VPIP is over 60% and I've lost the 25BB buy in and half of another, all due to horrible beats, aces and kings losing, never hitting a nut flush draw, etc.

-30BB is obviously a good point to re-evaluate things, but I just don't think its incredibly wise to leave a juicy table where you're the clear favorite because of a swing like that. Thats why you have a bankroll, and thats why you try to look at things analytically and avoid tilting.

[winky51]

I feel her advice is very good. There are many things to consider when you are down many big bets. When I play 4 tables it is almost exponential in their wins/loses. Once a table starts winning it continues winning. Once a table starts losing badly it continues losing badly. I have looked at it both ways. Why you ask? Here is my theory or should I say experience.

When a table is GOOD for you:
You can bluff more at pots and people fold. People play more predictable because they fear your "good luck". They only raise when they have a real hand.

When a table is BAD for you:
You can't buy pots because when you try people will still call you down with Ace high or some lower pair. People will bluff at you more since they see you folding more because you are missing flops.

CONCLUSION
Just the difference of one bought pot gained or one player bluffing you out of a pot an hour is a large swing in 3/6. If an average pot is $30 if you gain a pot per hour thats +$20 (assume you put in $10). If someone bluffs you out of a pot an hour thats a loss of $30 for the whole pot. This is how I look at it.

I would say most of the time I stay in and rebuy at the same 3/6 table I have lost $100 I do not recover. When I am up at a 3/6 table by $100 or more it continues going up. Last night was a perfect example. I had 6 tables running 2 were bad, 2 good, 2 profitable. At my 2 good tables my bluffs were much more successful than my other tables.

[donger]

I think this is great advice for beginners who can't really tell why they're losing in a game (tilt, bad beats, being outplayed, etc). Obviously, once you can recognize when you're a clear favorite and playing well, you shouldn't quit. Until a beginner reaches that point, it's nice to have a safety valve like this.

[MoreWineII]

While I think it's good advice to re-evaluate what's happening if you're getting your ass kicked at a certain table, using 30BB as a hard and fast rule is bad. Leaving a juicy table because you're losing (especially a small amount like 30BB) is not a good idea at all.

[Bob T.]

Like all guidelines, this one has it's place, but at the same time there are times to ignore it.

As an online player, I frequently get stuck 30BBs on one table in an hour. If I always quit when that happened, I would spend a lot less time playing, and some of the time that I wasn't playing, I would be missing out on very good games. I think that much of the time when you get way behind, it is due to the bad, but lucky play of your opponents, and if you leave those games, you will frequently be missing out on very good opportunities.

It is true, that if you are down 30 BBs, you frequently don't get back to even for that session, but the real question is not do you get back to even, but will the next hand contribute in the long run to your win rate. If you are still in a situation, that you are going to be a winning player on the next hand, you should probably continue to play.

I have been stuck 50 BBs in a live session, and come back to have a winning session, and I can remember also recovering 60 BBs in an online game.

[twankerr]

It should be noted that her advice stood for playing in B&M. Being down 30BB there, and being down 30BB 4-tabling online are completely different monsters.

[arkady]

[ QUOTE ]
or up >50BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

WHY?

[The Goober]

My $0.02 is that its probably good advice for the type of game that she and her brother are used to playing in. That is, B&M games that are reasonably tough. I think the idea is that if you are down 30BB, you either have already been playing for a while (and taking a break is probably a good idea) or else you took a bunch of bad beats in rapid succession and staying off tilt is going to be difficult. I think this sort of thinking makes sense when you are a favorite at the table, but not by much. At an incredibly soft LL table full of clowns who have no idea how to play, its probably best to stay as long as you can.

Leaving the table just because you are up a certain amount is just stupid.