GEEK GOES 3 FOR 5

UCF +2 WIN

MIA -9.5 WIN

CIN +6 LOSE

DEN -10.5 WIN

DET +14 LOSE (MY LOCK OF THE CENTURY)


I GUESS IT'S TOO EARLY TO START UP THAT 900 NUMBER, HUH?


PG

is Big Al. Everyone else has their game of the week or lock of the week and it goes down in flames. This guy's shoe in hits every week! I am now a believer. The rest of you guys seem to be wishing you were Big Al with your game or locks of the week. My hats off to you Big Al.

I have posted four locks on this forum and they all won. Granted that one was a moneyline winner (Raiders-Cowboys). But the point that I'm trying to make is that you should do a little more research before attacking the posters on this forum.


Rounder07

Geez, lighten up, I was more joking than anything else. sorry you cant see that.

There is no need to back off your statement Bob. While I respect and learn alot from the other handicapers on this site, Alec is the only one I would bet on. Over the last 1 1/4 years he has had at least 70% win rate in the regular season (NFL). Does anyone else have the exact number? when I see anyone else come close to his consistancy I will read their smack. until then Cheers to Alec keep up the good work!

Not that I have anything negative to say about Big Al, he does seem to do quite good analysis, but his sample size is way to small to draw solid conclusions on. All of us would be hard pressed to determine our long term success based on a sample size of under 100 bets. Even 200 bets isn't totally predictive, but its a lot closer to accurate. Its just something for anyone that starts betting to think about. If you run really good or really bad in a short term sample, don't get too worried. If I remember right a statistical guru here in Vegas told me that after 100 plays, if you are over 69% then you can probably figure you have talent. After 200 plays you only need to be above 63%. It takes about 400 plays to get some semblance of accuracy where you could say that if you are over 56% then you can be fairly assured it wasn't luck but skill. Then again sports betting changes so much that its a moving target and I don't even know if I would feel comfortable with those numbers.