Check raise vs Leading (forcing your oponent to draw out)

[A_PLUS]

8 person, 20$ home game with payout of 120/40$. Begin with 2250 TC and blinds 25/50 raising every 20 minutes.

7 players, I have apx 2000 TC, blind at 50/100, I open for 300 with QJo. I get called by a TAG and LAG.

flop comes JJ6 two spades, I hold Qs.

Here is my thoughts:
The LAG, would have reraised me preflop with AJ, maybe with KJ, and will make my flop bet for me if it is checked to him. The TAG, will probably check-raise the flop with AJ, KJ, so any bet is most likely a value bet with a PP or possibly a flush draw.

Actions:
I check, TAG bets 500$, LAG calls, I reraise all-in for another 1200.

LAG calls me and I get busted by a flush on the river.

Given the fact that I went for the check-raise I know we both made the right play. LAG had 4000+ TC. So how do you feel about the CR vs. the opening raise on the flop.

What type of situations do you think it is correct to go for the CR vs opening raise (lets assume for arguement that we are CERTAIN that the flop will be bet).

This is in context of a STT, where you think you are the best player remaining. I already understand the TC EV end of the arguement, I would apppreciate any strategy discussion.

Thanks

[RobGW]

Well, the first thing I look at is the size of the pot. Here the pot is already $1000 and you started with $2000. This pot is worth winning right here. That calls for leading out big. The second thing I look at is the number of opponents. Here you have 2. The more opponents there are the more likely the flush draw is out, thus leading you to bet out. The third thing I would look at is the type of players. A LAG might call all his chips on a flush draw. If that is the case maybe just call on the flop and wait until the turn to push as you will be a significant favorite at that point as long as the 3 spade doesnt come.

[A_PLUS]

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Well, the first thing I look at is the size of the pot. Here the pot is already $1000 and you started with $2000. This pot is worth winning right here.

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I agree, the more I think about it, the more I think that pushing on the flop was the play. I honestly was expecting one 200-300 token raise from the LAG on the flop, that extra 1000 really screwed me.

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The second thing I look at is the number of opponents. Here you have 2. The more opponents there are the more likely the flush draw is out, thus leading you to bet out.

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Im not so sold on this. Being that I had the Q of Spades, and the two on the board, the odds are pretty strongly against either of them having a 4 flush. The second player makes the odds around 8-9% rather than 4-5%. I was hoping to have on of them bet a middle pair or two over cards, thinking the Jacks weren't in play.


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The third thing I would look at is the type of players. A LAG might call all his chips on a flush draw. If that is the case maybe just call on the flop and wait until the turn to push as you will be a significant favorite at that point as long as the 3 spade doesnt come.

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I dont think I agree with this, although it most likely would have worked here. If he is on the flush draw. I am a 75/25% favorite with both cards to come. If I do just call, I have committed 40% of my chips into a pot that I am taking a wait and see attitude about. I just dont like the sound of that.

Even when a spade falls on the turn, I am not saving a full 1200 chips by folding, there is always the chance that he missed the flush, as well as the chance that he hits the flush and I win the hand by hitting the boat or a higher flush on the river (I had the Q).

The benefit I see of the stop and go, is if I cause him to fold on the turn those times that the flush would have hit on the river. Assuming he will fold on the turn, this is definitely negative TC EV, but does up my survival rate.

So I understand why someone would do that, that player is just not me. It may be a mistake, but Im going be pushing any 75/25 edge I can get unless I am playing someone absolutely horrible.