10-08-2001, 09:49 PM
World Series futures seem out of whack. Here are the odds at Carib as of 10/8:
AL
SEA +120 NYY +180 OAK +180 CLE +600 (31% vig)
NL
ARI +100(!) ATL +300 STL +300 HOU +350 (22% vig)
WS
SEA +250 NYY +350 OAK +350 CLE +1200
ARI +500(!) ATL +800 STL +800 HOU +1000 (29% vig)
WS
AL -180 NL +150
Obviously ARI isn't going to be a +300 dog in the Series if they make it (unless RJ or CS gets hurt), so something's wrong. Unfortunately the error is in the +100 to win the NL - given their price is -150 vs. STL, they'd have to be -500 in the NLCS to justify that NL pennant price! (Note to self: check WSEX for possible short).
I think that given the vigs above you'd be much better off betting the division series, and parlaying "by hand" if you win (CERTAINLY if you like ARI). Let's say you like CLE to win the AL... you get +215 to win the ALDS (100 to win 215, now you have 315). Now the breakeven point for the ALCS is +122 - if you get +122 on that series, you win 384 for 315 for a total of 699, the same total BR as if you had bet them to win the AL at +600. I would imagine that they'd be a fair bit higher than that against either OAK or NYY, so you'd be better off with the manual parlay.
Of course this is pretty basic, I actually wanted to throw these lines out there and see if anyone notices a +EV situation or arbitrage (unlikely with huge vig but you never know...)
Nakor
(Also, any opinions on Matt Williams to strike out in Game 1 at Yes -135 No +105? I'm thinking of a shot at the Yes.)
AL
SEA +120 NYY +180 OAK +180 CLE +600 (31% vig)
NL
ARI +100(!) ATL +300 STL +300 HOU +350 (22% vig)
WS
SEA +250 NYY +350 OAK +350 CLE +1200
ARI +500(!) ATL +800 STL +800 HOU +1000 (29% vig)
WS
AL -180 NL +150
Obviously ARI isn't going to be a +300 dog in the Series if they make it (unless RJ or CS gets hurt), so something's wrong. Unfortunately the error is in the +100 to win the NL - given their price is -150 vs. STL, they'd have to be -500 in the NLCS to justify that NL pennant price! (Note to self: check WSEX for possible short).
I think that given the vigs above you'd be much better off betting the division series, and parlaying "by hand" if you win (CERTAINLY if you like ARI). Let's say you like CLE to win the AL... you get +215 to win the ALDS (100 to win 215, now you have 315). Now the breakeven point for the ALCS is +122 - if you get +122 on that series, you win 384 for 315 for a total of 699, the same total BR as if you had bet them to win the AL at +600. I would imagine that they'd be a fair bit higher than that against either OAK or NYY, so you'd be better off with the manual parlay.
Of course this is pretty basic, I actually wanted to throw these lines out there and see if anyone notices a +EV situation or arbitrage (unlikely with huge vig but you never know...)
Nakor
(Also, any opinions on Matt Williams to strike out in Game 1 at Yes -135 No +105? I'm thinking of a shot at the Yes.)