Live 4/8 Versus Dough

[gaming_mouse]

Live 4/8 Game looser than Party .5/1, but sporadically aggressive. 2 separate people have 3-bet 95s preflop. Cold calls with J5o are common, as are showdowns with bottom pair after turn raises.

Random, uncalculated bluffs with no hope of success are also favored here, particularly on the river. I've seen some from the villain in this hand, especially on the flop, and this is the reason I question my lay down. Here goes...

I raise JJ UTG. 5 cold calls.

Flop: KK3 (suits unimportant)

I bet, villain raises, folded back to me. I call.

Turn: A

I check/fold.

The villain is capable of a raise bluff for sure. And there's a decent possibility that he would not take the size of the field into account when attempting this.

At the same time, he's commented on my tightness, and knows my raise likely means an A or pocket pair. The 4 folds also make a K or A for him more likely. What it boils down to is that even though I knew he might have been bluffing, the chance that he had me beat seemed too great to pay off 2 BB. On the other hand, I was getting about 5:1 on the call down. Did I do wrong?

[Aces McGee]

Has the villain previously followed through with his flop bluffs with a bet on the turn?

Would he bluff at the flop with any two cards, or only with a hand that a chance to improve to best (ace high, for instance)?

I really don't like the way you played this hand, but the answers to these questions will help out, I think.

-McGee

[gaming_mouse]

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Has the villain previously followed through with his flop bluffs with a bet on the turn?

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Usually he gives up, but my check to him might have induced another bet.

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Would he bluff at the flop with any two cards, or only with a hand that a chance to improve to best (ace high, for instance)?

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He could easily do it with any two cards.

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I really don't like the way you played this hand


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Please let me know what other line you see. I should warn you, though, that I could not count on a check/raise to thin the field. In fact, I was quite surprised that the villain's raise got everyone to fold. Very uncommon for this table, even given the dangerous flop.

Also, I bet because I knew that any of these players, if they did hold the king, would raise immediately -- nobody ever waited till the turn to raise. Of course, some would raise without the king as well, hence my difficult decision.

gm

[Aces McGee]

I think the flop bet is great, don't get me wrong. And I think the preflop raise is terrific, as well.

I guess I don't like the turn. You say that checking the turn may have induced a bet from him, even if he's on a bluff. I think you're right.

I think I prefer one of the following three lines, in no particular order (at least not yet):

a)3 bet the flop and check/fold the turn if he caps. The pot is big enough to call hoping to spike a jack if he caps, I think.

b)bet/fold the turn. If he doesn't usually follow through on the turn without the goods, then you have an easy fold here.

c)check/call the turn.

One flop raise followed by a HU turn bet when you've shown weakness isn't enough to convince me has a king. I think you gave up far too easily.

-McGee

[gaming_mouse]

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a)3 bet the flop and check/fold the turn if he caps. The pot is big enough to call hoping to spike a jack if he caps, I think.

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While this player was not sophisticated enough to put off raising till the turn, he probably was smart enough not to cap if he had the goods, so I'm not crazy about this line.

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b)bet/fold the turn. If he doesn't usually follow through on the turn without the goods, then you have an easy fold here.

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Not crazy about this one either, because even though I had usually seen him slow down, I also knew he was capable of raise bluff.

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c)check/call the turn.

One flop raise followed by a HU turn bet when you've shown weakness isn't enough to convince me has a king. I think you gave up far too easily.

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Calling down was the other line I was considering, and the more I think about it the more I think it is better than my line, though not by too much. Against a more typical player, calling down to the river, then raising his river bet and folding to a 3-bet would have been my preference. But as this guy was capable of a river 3-bet bluff (oh yes), I think calling down was the best play.

Thanks for your thoughts,
gm

[Kaz The Original]

Can you call the flop bet if you are going to check fold on the turn to a non jack? OR was the ace a factor?

[Avatar]

I check/call the turn and river.

I think your good here at least 1 in 6.

[Fianchetto]

With the way you describe the game I probably would have called him down.

Was the villain just to your left? It sounds that way, and his flop raise makes me think more of somebody trying to protect a vulnerable hand than having trips. Something like 88, or maybe he flopped a pair of 3's, very possible since it sounds like people will cold call with anything.

He very well could have a king and decided to play it fast, knocking out all his customers, but you're getting 5:1 on the call down and I think your hand is good one in five times here. Checking the turn and giving a free card doesn't hurt you too much because you are probably well ahead, or way behind. Let him fire away; when you have him beat he will bet for you, when you are beat you will lose the least.

Another idea is to 3-bet the flop and lead the turn representing a king, then fold to a turn raise. However, if this guy is capable of bluff raising this could be a very expensive mistake, and you don't want to get too fancy against these guys. I like calling down best.

[gaming_mouse]

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Can you call the flop bet if you are going to check fold on the turn to a non jack? OR was the ace a factor?

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I had planned on calling down (though it was a marginal decision) until the A came.

[gaming_mouse]

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Was the villain just to your left? It sounds that way, and his flop raise makes me think more of somebody trying to protect a vulnerable hand than having trips.Something like 88, or maybe he flopped a pair of 3's,

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Certainly possible, though it's unlikely he was applying the concept of "protecting a vulnerable hand." If he had a pair of 3's, he thought he was raising for value. One more argument in favor of calling down....

[Alexthegreat]

I see a clear bet & fold to a raise on the turn here...If he figures your raise to be an A or a high pocket pair, the A is a great card for you to see where you are at. When you check the turn, it screams weakness and makes it an easy bet for him....If you lead and he does have a K, he will surely raise and you can fold confidently. If you lead and he calls, check-call the river....

[gaming_mouse]

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I see a clear bet & fold to a raise on the turn here...If he figures your raise to be an A or a high pocket pair, the A is a great card for you to see where you are at. When you check the turn, it screams weakness and makes it an easy bet for him....If you lead and he does have a K, he will surely raise and you can fold confidently. If you lead and he calls, check-call the river....

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No. You have to read my description of this guy. He was full capable of raising that turn HU with 72o.

While I like your advice against most players, it would have been a terrible mistake against this guy. The choice is between folding and calling down.

gm

[gaming_mouse]

Interesting. So I just did the math on the chances that my opponent does NOT have an A or K, assuming his hand is randomly selected from the unseen cards -- not an unrealisitc assumption, in this case:

(34 choose 2)/(39 choose 2) = .75

So I was getting 5:1 on a 3:1 shot. When you factor in my 2 out redraw and the fact that calling down is probably better for my table image, I think calling down is clearly the right move. Even if he was raising into a large field.

F*ck!

gm

EDIT: Fixed odds calculation