MLB Playoff Angles

The line for the OAK/NYY series is currently OAK -105 NYY -115 (it's dropped from OAK +120, heh... I got in at +105). More interestingly, here are the odds for each team to win in a specified number of games:


in 3: OAK +500 NYY +400

in 4: OAK +300 NYY +400

in 5: OAK +450 NYY +300

series: OAK -105 NYY -115


According to the series price, this is a fairly even matchup. Let's estimate the odds of either team winning any individual game at 0.5. Then the odds of the first four games being split 2-2 are 0.375 (six ways out of sixteen possible). Assuming the last game is approximately even, the odds that either team will win in 5 games are then 0.375 / 2 = 0.1875, or +433 on the moneyline.


"True" odds if each game is a tossup

in 3: OAK +700 NYY +700 (4/32)

in 4: OAK +433 NYY +433 (6/32)

in 5: OAK +433 NYY +433 (6/32)

series: OAK +100 NYY +100


If you buy this much, you'll agree that OAK in 5 seems to be a slight overlay - at least in a vacuum. Actually the first time I did this I came up with the true number at +333 which is obviously much better, but had an error in the math. Still, there is a slight plus value there all things being equal. But if OAK has an edge, they are more likely to win in 5. Of course they are also more likely to win in 3 or 4. I need to crunch some more numbers to figure the odds but I think that there is definite value in OAK in 5 games.


Just for fun, let's run the numbers for the CLE/SEA series (I don't have immediate access to NL game-by-game odds):


Current lines

in 3: CLE +800 SEA +300

in 4: CLE +500 SEA +250

in 5: CLE +600 SEA +250

series: CLE +215 SEA -245


Let's say for argument's sake that SEA should have a 0.6 chance of winning each game (that equates to a -150 moneyline). Then we have:


"True" odds if each game is SEA -150

in 3: CLE +1463 SEA +363

in 4: CLE +768 SEA +286

in 5: CLE +623 SEA +382

series: CLE +215 SEA -215


Heh, that worked out nicely - it looks like the average price for SEA should be around -215 per game. Note that SEA actually has a better chance of sweeping than of winning in 5 - as they become more favored (e.g. -200) that ratio is skewed even more to the sweep.


Given these numbers, I'd say if you had to bet take a shot at CLE in 5 or SEA in 4 (or CLE to win the series). Another consideration is possible hedging. My favorite bets are series bets AFTER game 1 or 2, when the lines are often quite wrong (mathematically, at least!)


The "true" numbers for the ATL/HOU series should be close to the first set above (series price ATL +100 HOU -120). The "true" numbers for the STL/ARI series should be close to the second set (series price STL +130 ARI -150). Although, the ARI series is different because the individual game prices should vary more due to pitching matchups being more lopsided (or perceived that way).


Nakor

Why take Cle in 5 if your price is +623 and the payoff is +600? Am I reading your odds incorrect? Besides something with such specific matchups, I would think if you were seriously looking at this as pure investment speculation then you better not use averages. I know its hard to speculate on prices before the series begins, but its necessary. Its not enough to say average price is X because, for example, parlaying -145 and -155 is not the same price as -150 and -150. Further you are really making a mistake in this one because saying -150 as an average price undervalues the favorites because they are starting at home so to sweep they will only face one game with a "reduced" number, ie a road game. Besides something to be careful about is that the home advantage is usually terribly overrated in the postseason. I think its worth close to nothing come postseason, its best to look at games as if they are neutral field. Last year is a good example:


Road team record:

WS

4-1

ALCS

3-3

NLCS

3-2

ALDS

5-3

NLDS

2-5


Total record: 17-14, yes the road teams won more games. It happens quite often. No guarantees, but I can assure you that the home field advantage is worth almost nothing so look to bet the road teams in your matchups so you get some bonus value.

Sorry got my years confused, wrote it out and just realized. WS record was 2-3,not 4-1, so the record was actually 15-16. Still not worthy of much additional value for the home edge. These are the best road teams in general, look for spots to back them.

Hi Wild Bill,

My guess/assumption is also that the road team was a dog in most of the matchups as well, which would mean that the road team does even better than the straight w/l records indicate.

John

They were on average a dog, but not by that much. I had the number, but I didn't pay much attention to it, average price of -119 comes to mind but not certain. Bottom line is not so much to blindly bet the roadies, just make them your only focus and have very solid reasoning to bet a home team since you will be paying extra for something of little or no value. Its strange that it works out this way because I have been to a few playoff baseball games and its a different world. Every pitch counts, every out is cheered, its nothing like regular season and you would think you would see more value to home field than there is. I used to call this the Twins factor way back in 94-95 because even up to that point, people remembered how the Twins won two WS by winning every game at home and losing every game on the road.