Gutshot draws on a flush board

[Malcom Reynolds]

Weak tight, or just right?

On page 63 of Middle Limit Holdem Poker, we are given an example where we are drawing to the nut gutshot straight with a backdoor flush draw. However, there is a two flush on the board, and are given the following advice on the next page:

Nearly all gutshot straight draws should be folded if there is a two-flush on the board.

The prescence of a backdoor flush draw is not enough to continue:

As for the backdoor flush draw, that is not enough to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

The exception, is that they say you should not be worried about the flush draw if you are heads up. No specific mention is given to how many players are in the hand, so I would assume they mean any multiway pots (3 or more).

I pondered this for a while, and then thought I'd ask you all what you thought.

[Malcom Reynolds]

One time bump.

Is this so fundamental? Go ahead and tell me to go back to the micros, just tell me it's obvious if it is.

[btspider]

I'm also reading MLH. From what I gather, it was written for a tougher game (pre internet/tv poker boom) than is prevalent today at the middle limits.. so some of the advice is notably weak-tight by today's standards. its still very useful for identifying board textures and situations that you should be aware of.

as for your specific poll questions, it depends on absolute/relative position, and pot size. 10 SB's is notably less than 15 SB's. closing the action is also often key for making a loose call.

post one (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1445992&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1)

mason book review (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=450677&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1)

[Malcom Reynolds]

You make a good point about it depending.

Maybe this leads to an interesting general question however. (I bet this has been answered a million times in the probability forum.) How often is someone actually on the flush draw? If it's 50%, we can discount half an out, or does that still not give us enough overlay? Do we just discount the full out and assume we are drawing to three outs and need 14 to 1? Well then why isn't the backdoor flush draw enough to take one off? It gives us an extra 1.5 outs, giving us around 4.5 outs, enough for 10 to 1.

I agree that absolute/relative position and pot size are very important. But even in a tough game, I'm sure it can be mathematically correct at times to draw to a gutshot on a flush board.

I just find it hard to believe that you can NEVER follow such a draw. Unless the original authors so rarely saw multiway pots with so much overlay that it was correct, then I understand.

[btspider]

right, they say "nearly all (should be folded)". that leaves room for the few times where you are closing the action in a 14 SB pot, etc..

MLH does have a different approach than SSH. discounts are more "feel" based. odds to draw mostly discuss pot odds rather than implied odds. i'm not sure if they just assume implied odds and redraws against your just cancel out. it does have a fit or fold feel to it as you read. also, the hands seem a bit contrived and sometimes I wonder about the PF play that got us into the quiz's situation in the first place. i think that's why most reviews just say if you can skirt around the poor material, there is plenty of good material to be found and understood.

in my first post, read the first link's parent topic for a recent topic on WLH and the second link for a good review of the book.

[Grendel]

I agree that it's sutuational. Worst case scenario, though, is that you're up against a flush draw, which gives you 3 outs with (opponents') redraw possibilites.

My eyes glaze over when someone else starts posting mathematics, so I'll make this quick and dirty. Let's say you're definitely up against a flush draw, and that if you hit your straight on the turn but get drawn out on the river you'll lose 3.5 BB (flop+turn+river).

(44/47) you'll miss the turn, -.5BB
(3/47)*(9/46) you'll hit and lose, -3.5BB
(3/47)*(37/46) you'll hit and win, +X BB

Setting the (-) side equal to the (+) side, we learn that you need to win about 10 BB from this point to make a call profitable. With a big pot and/or many opponents, it could easily happen. And remember, this is assuming that a flush draw is definitely out there.

Of course, this doesn't factor in the times you'd hit your straight and split, and assumes you'd fold if you hit your gutshot but it was the 3rd card of the suit, but I think it all comes out in the wash because we're assuming that a flush draw is definitely out there...

-Grendel

[Malcom Reynolds]

An example hand (pg. 69 Middle Limit Holdem Poker).

Hero has Q/images/graemlins/heart.gifJ/images/graemlins/heart.gif on the button. Two limpers and hero limps. SB folds and BB raises, everyone calls. Four to the flop.

Flop: A/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif3/images/graemlins/club.gif

BB bets, two calls. (11.5 SB)

Hero...?

The book says that calling is simply bad poker. But with implied odds, I feel like the call is much closer. And you are closing the action. They also note that on a rainbow board, this would be a clear call.

If you hit your gutshot, another broadway card can come down on the river for a likely split pot, however.

Does this change in a tough game vs. a soft game? That they are more likely to have hands when they call here, and so the chance that someone is on a flush draw is higher?