The genius pick of the week goes to....

Wild Bill! I know your play of week went down in flames but in a thread below you point out that Arizona could be a very nice pick.


That was one of those incredible picks where the talent and matchups really give you no reason to believe otherwise, but some other "intangibles" come together and you know it's a good pick. That was a brilliant pick and I never would have thought of the intangibles you mentioned. In fact, I was debating taking a bet on Philly until you discussed that game. Then I steered clear.


Nice job, I'm converted.


natedogg

I bet AZ not because of intangibles but because I really felt that the talent difference didn't merit that spot. They're not terrible and the Eagles certainly aren't at peak. And being from Phx, I'm actually down on the CArds as a general rule(an anti-homer bias?), but I think this was a book example of over and under appreciation for the two teams. Having said that, the natural followup would be to say that Detroit is overunderappreciated and due for a bounce. But I don't see why.


JG

I know now that WB isn't saying his game of the week should be bet harder or maybe he is but I don't think he is. He has pegged some teams and games very well and others well you know. Phoenix covered by 15 I think and the Titans failed to cover by 15. What I suggest is shit canning the reasoning behind betting on the Titans and keeping the reasoning behind betting on Phoenix.


Contrast this analsysis:


Titans +4 over Ravens


Started seeing some 4's out there, that is a key number so grab it if you can. I think most factors favor the Titans here. McCrary and Siragusa are banged up, but probably starters and Lewis is possibly out. Those are three guys the Ravens can't go without in this particular game because it means Eddie George coming to a secondary near you. McNair starting again gives a key dimension because as good as O'Donnell can run up the pass yards, his immobility kills too many drives with crucial sacks or hurries. My feeling is that if McNair wasn't at least 90% they would just stick with O'Donnell so that tells me he should be able to contribute and isn't rushing back from injury. I mean they had 325 yards passing and 6 points with O'Donnell, enough said about who you would want in there. As bad as people have been trying to make out the Titans situation, a win here and they are 1-2 and only half game behind the Ravens with the home matchup coming later. That being said this game is extremely crucial for them to win and this team is too focused and talented not to back here in light of the injuries the Ravens will have to overcome. Further compelling is the number of turnovers the Ravens have had this year going up against an opportunistic team and defense which makes much of its hay off the turnover. Last week the Ravens won because they played a team that relies on offense to win. This week they play a team that is all about ball control and defense and they enter it with three key players at less than 100%. And I get 4 points. What isn't there to like in all that?


To this analysis:


One last game I will comment on now is the Cardinals. This is another game where I won't bet money on it or get that excited, but I smell a good situation at least. The Eagles always get fired up for Dallas, but they don't give a damn about Arizona. The fans were out for blood and fired up about beating the hated Cowboys, this week they are probably subdued. Also look at the schedule you have Philly going to an off week, this could be a lack of focus spot for a young team. So coming off an incredibly dominating performance and having a week off beckoning, this is a big letdown spot. Besides Dallas gave the game away with all those turnovers, the Eagles were at the Dallas 30 or better half their possesions. The Cardinals aren't that good, but they are much more advanced offensively than Wright and that sorry sack team. They got Pittman back and he is the type of player you need in a hostile spot, a banger that will help control the ball a little bit and move the chains. The Cardinals defense also seemed to just wear down after awhile in the heat, here they get more favorable weather. Further they face a team that doesn't really hit you up for long drives, its usually a lot of 3 yard plays and their luck runs out or bam they hit a 50 yard play and they score. To get over two TDs is quite a value, but its hard to trust your money to a team that has been prone to quit in the past. As crazy as it seems, the best place for them is on the road because playing in front of 28,000 booing fans is certainly not anything you would call home field advantage. All in all I think the Eagles will trail for at least some portion of this game and then do enough to win in the end.


Can you spot some key differences? I can and I guess I’ll start another Jihad but the intent is not to slam WB but to show solid reasoning vs. crappy reasoning. Without going into great depth the reasoning on the Titans game was based on some assumptions that were pure speculation with little facts while the reasoning on the Phoenix game was based on solid facts and insights. I mean when WB is right he is really right and I’ll say shows a lot of fine thought but when he’s wrong well you know what I mean. Since WB does give such detailed and thoughtful analysis maybe it’s wise to see where he might be going right and wrong and everyone wins.