AQs on the bubble (PP $100) [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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Enon

12-28-2004, 11:40 AM

First time posting in the single table forum.

The villain in this hand has been gleefully exploiting the bubble dynamic.

Here are a few of his hands he's shown down earlier:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP1 (t1400)
MP2 (t1065)
MP3 (t530)
CO (t1095)
Villain (t495)
SB (t640)
Enon (t1250)
UTG (t1825)
UTG+1 (t895)
UTG+2 (t805)

Preflop: Enon is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO raises to t100, Button raises to t495 (All-In), SB folds, Enon folds, CO calls t395.

Flop: (t1065) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t1065) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t1065) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t1065

Results in white below: 
CO has Kd Qd (high card, ace).
Button has Ad 8c (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Button wins t1065. 

And another one:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG (t1225)
UTG+1 (t540)
MP1 (t1795)
MP2 (t400)
Villain (t1115)
Enon (t1450)
Button (t1575)
SB (t1170)
BB (t730)

Preflop: Enon is CO with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG raises to t200, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 raises to t1115 (All-In), Enon folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls t915.

Flop: (t2380) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t2380) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t2380) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t2380

Results in white below: 
UTG has Qd Ac (high card, ace).
MP3 has Kc Jd (one pair, kings).
Outcome: MP3 wins t2380. 

This hand was telling since he didn’t push all in with this strong of a hand:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|saw showdown

BB (t660)
UTG (t1995)
MP1 (t100)
Villain (t2800)
Enon (t1450)
Button (t1275)
SB (t1720)

Preflop: Enon is CO with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, MP1 calls t100 (All-In), MP2 raises to t400, Enon folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds.

Flop: (t800) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t800) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t800) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t800

Results in white below: 
MP1 has 8h Ah (straight, jack high).
MP2 has Ad Qd (flush, ace high).
Outcome: MP2 wins t800. 

Now the main hand.

If I win this pot, I'll have T6100, double the amount of the next biggest stack.

What range of hands would you call here with?

Thanks much in advance.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|saw showdown

BB (t2715)
UTG (t3560)
Enon (t2600)
SB (t1125)

Preflop: Enon is Button with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG raises to t3560 (All-In), Enon calls t2600 (All-In), SB folds, BB folds.

Flop: (t6610) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t6610) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t6610) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t6610

Results in white below: 
UTG has Ac 9c (flush, ace high).
Enon has Qd Ad (one pair, queens).
Outcome: UTG wins t6610.

ColdestCall

12-28-2004, 11:51 AM

You probably have to call this bet even without the read on the villain.

ThorGoT

12-28-2004, 02:30 PM

I disagree. This could be a small pair -- admittedly, odds against it, but even against something like KJs Hero isn't that favored.

Shajen

12-28-2004, 02:38 PM

I would probably fold here and wait for a better hand.

AQs is good, but imo not good enough to risk your entire tourney on when you are not short stacked.

Wait a little bit, I'm sure this reckless player will screw up when you have the best of it.

DonButtons

12-28-2004, 03:02 PM

I think the times people have ace crap pays off the times you run into ak here.

ColdestCall

12-28-2004, 03:08 PM

Well, it could be a small pair, in which case the pot odds compensate you for being a 52-48 dog, or it could be a monster in which case you're screwed. However, most of the time it is going to be either a worse Ace, which you dominate, or a something with a queen in it, which you also dominate, KJs, which you are a 6 to 4 fav, or K-J off where you are 6.5 to 3.5, or one of a variety of hands like J-10S or 8-9S where you are also at least 6 to 4. You are playing four handed poker - A-Qs is a very strong hand. The few times you run into a monster, and the times you call as a favorite (or small dog) and lose will be more than made up for by the times you double up and win the tourney, IMO. So I would call here with no read. The read he actually had would make me even more inclined to call because I would think I was less likely to be facing a monster and much more likely to be facing a worse ace.

ColdestCall

12-28-2004, 03:13 PM

"Wait a little bit, I'm sure this reckless player will screw up when you have the best of it."

Like by moving in with A-9s for example when you hold A-Qs? Hero was 7 to 3 favorite pre flop - doesnt get a whole lot better than that.

ThorGoT

12-28-2004, 03:31 PM

Yes, it does -- when Hero bets out first, as a favorite, and is called. Hero doesn't know, before the fact, what villain has, and has no folding equity calling this bet.

Shajen

12-28-2004, 03:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
"Like by moving in with A-9s for example when you hold A-Qs? Hero was 7 to 3 favorite pre flop - doesnt get a whole lot better than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Guess my getting rivered so much lately has clouded my good judgement...or maybe this is a leak in my game. Hmmm..... /images/graemlins/confused.gif no, still don't like it, but I'm a newb so guess that doesn't mean much. I guess what I am thinking is even though the villain has shown down some hideous hands, it doesn't mean they don't have a monster this time. Ah hell, maybe I'm just weak tight /images/graemlins/smile.gif

ColdestCall

12-28-2004, 03:59 PM

Well, we may just have to agree to disagree here. I know the call has no fold equity. I know that Hero doesnt know villain's exact holding. That doesnt change the fact that Hero is likely to be around a 65-70% favorite to double up here by calling Villain, and probably around a 60% favorite to double up versus most players pushing UTG in this situation. Yes, he'll have fold equity when he is first in the pot, but when he gets all of his chips in and gets called, it's not likely that he is going to be much better than a 7 to 3 favorite (plus, we are talking about Hero getting into a situation where he doubles through villain, so fold equity isnt all that relevant anyway). Early in the tournament, sure, stick the A-Qs right into the muck. Four handed poker, someone's gonna have to show me a hand.

Enon

12-29-2004, 08:07 AM

I don't know how to proceed with a overall EV calculation here, taking into account the overall likelihood (an estimation based on chip counts) that winning this hand will win me the whole tourney.

Thanks.

pokerraja

12-29-2004, 11:03 AM

This is a very tough bubble decision. I would be almost certain you have the best hand here based on his image. But weve all seen JT beat AQ in these races for instance. For me this call is really based on how ive been running. If I have been running good, I will make this call. However if im in a slump, then I think I fold and just try to survive till the next one busts out.

adanthar

12-29-2004, 03:13 PM

If I fold that hand, it means I'm playing for third.

I never play for third.

Enon

12-29-2004, 09:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If I fold that hand, it means I'm playing for third.

I never play for third.

[/ QUOTE ]

But what if I'm playing for the most Sklansky bucks?? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

adanthar

12-29-2004, 10:12 PM

If you've got that good of a read on him, I think the average you're up by is something like 2:1 and you're playing for 2/3 of all the chips on the table. There's no way you can fold this. For that matter, I'm not folding this without that type of read, either (maybe if I thought it meant a small pocket but I'd have to be pretty sure.)

texasrattlers

12-31-2004, 05:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
For me this call is really based on how ive been running. If I have been running good, I will make this call. However if im in a slump, then I think ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Not good. I think you should strive to make the best play whether you are running hot or cold or lukewarm.