KsJs sb - trapped on turn

[CanKid]

Good live 10/20

2 limpers to a young kid who raises too many hands, 1 cold call, I call from SB, bb calls, limpers call.

6 to flop for 2 bets each.

Flop: T /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Checked around

Turn: 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
I check, UTG bets (solid player), UTG+1 raises (steaming TAG), folded to me. I call. UTG 3 bets, UTG+1 caps, I fold.

On the turn I read UTG for a steal or an average pair, and UTG+1's raise as a weak T. The action after my cold call made it seem too likely I was drawing dead.

Hit dealer's finger when I folded, hand flippped up, good or bad? I couldn't decide.

[Nightwish]

You made two mistakes on the turn.

When UTG+1 raises, you're getting 9:2. Let's make the generous assumption that neither one of them has a T. This means you need 4.1:1, so you're getting the right odds to call.....but not by a whole lot. Now how likely is it that neither one of them has a T? Let's say 1/3 of the time UTG actually does have a T, so he'll probably 3-bet when it comes back to him. If we assume that UTG+1 calls (meaning he has a smaller T or a pocket pair), that means you only have 6 outs and are getting 4:1. So that means you have an average of 8 outs and are on average getting 4.33:1. This means your cold call is -EV.

However, once you make the mistake of calling two cold the first time and it comes back to you capped, you are now getting 15:2, giving you the right odds to call two more even if you only have 6 outs! And the reason you still have 6 outs is that given your player description, you're almost certainly not drawing dead. Would a solid player and a TAG limp in EP with 22 or 33 or T2 ot T3? The probability of that is pretty small.

[shaundeeb]

Even though if you look at total pot odds for you calling 4 bets it still better to protect your 2 invested for 2 more. You are most likely not drawing dead but 1 or 2 of your spade outs may fill up one of the players set of 10s.

[TStoneMBD]

you should have bet this flop. aside from that, calling 2 cold on the turn is poor, but you got it right when it was 2 more back to you. if nightwish's numbers are correct in that you are getting 15:2, thats 7:1 on a 5:1 draw on a paired board when you are drawing dead at least half the time in this situation.

[ReMMy]

As already stated, bet the flop when checked to. This will help you find out if your overcards are good and may lead to a free river card. No point in cold calling 2 on the turn, you'll just end up getting yourself in more trouble half the time.

ReMMy

[JeffO]

[ QUOTE ]
As already stated, bet the flop when checked to.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is the SB. It couldn't have been checked to him.

[CanKid]

Nightwish,

Nice post, thanks.

[ QUOTE ]
Would a solid player and a TAG limp in EP with 22 or 33

[/ QUOTE ]

T2/T3 no. 22/33 yes.

If UTG+1 had called the 3bet rather than 4bet, I would have called thinking it was AT vs 9-KT and my flush draw was live, his 4bet screamed drawing dead to me.

[CanKid]

UTG+1 called the 4bet. River was a red King, UTG bet, UTG+1 called. UTG tabled ATo, UTG+1 tabled 9Ts. My flush draw was live.

Thanks for the feedback.