Question about the KJ-hand in Ed's article.

[Carlos]

Ed writes:

[ QUOTE ]
If your opponent is bluffing as little as five percent of the time, you should automatically call down...


[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't the correct play in this case to call the turn and fold the river unless you improve?

[That guy]

no, there are 13 bets to be won for 1 more call... you can't fold now. you would have to be right nearly 100% of the time on your 'read' for this to be profitable. Ed's entire point is that you will basically never have the certaintly needed to lay down for 1 more bet when the pot is large (unless you just have Ten high or something on a busted straight).

[Carlos]

In the text it says even if the opponent only bluffs 5 percent of the times you should call down. On the river the pot is laying us 14:1 on a 19:1 shot so calling the river is -EV.

Since Ed makes a valid point this is perhaps a bit pedantric. I was just surprised that even though we have no intention of calling his bluff on the river (we play the river the same) the small chance of a bluff still changes the turn play.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
In the text it says even if the opponent only bluffs 5 percent of the times you should call down. On the river the pot is laying us 14:1 on a 19:1 shot so calling the river is -EV.


[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? I think you're assumptions above are only valid if the bettor is NEVER betting a worse hand (say Kx). If you factor in that chance (let's say it's 5%), your odds are now 10:1, and you must call.

That was my interpretation of Ed's article, but I'm not sure I understood the math, which means I need to do some reading...

Am I wrong?

[BarronVangorToth]

Not only that, but forget the fact that your opponent may not be bluffing ... if you get known to be a guy who will fold easily, people will absolutely start targeting you and now you're calling-the-check-raise-folding-the-river EVERY time you don't improve, which will be often, and savvy players, while few and far between, will be taking advantage of you left, right, and center.

In short: I believe Ed's advice, much like in his phenomenal book, is dead-on.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

[Stork]

Ed said your opponent must be bluffing as little as 5% of the time assuming a worst case scenario in which your opponent, when ahead, was equally likely to hold a set as two pair. In fact, it is about 4x more likely that your opponent holds two pair against which you have a decent number of outs, meaning your opponent must be bluffing like 3% or less, and it is impossible to conclude wether he is bluffing or not with that much certainty.