fold to river check-raise?

[Andy French]

It's probably very basic, but I still haven't figured it out. When somebody check-raises the river, without an obvious scare-card, should I fold it:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (6.16 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 calls.

River: (8.16 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.16 BB

I just cross my fingers and say 'Not king-jack, not king-jack...' but of course it is.

[MyssGuy]

You can't fold an overpair in this situtation. You'd have to be correct 9/10 times for this to be a correct play. This could be a weak player check-raising with AK that held on way too long. I think you played this right (although I may have saved the raise for the turn).

[smoore]

I agree. You only have to be ahead more than 8% of the time to make money. I can see some people doing this w/AKo every time. You were something like 8:1 going to the river so I just call it a suckout.

[joedot]

you played it fine. BB and UTG to act after you, you have to raise on the flop to drive them out and increase the chances of your one pair holding up. With that board, and heads up, AA looks like an auto bet on the river to me, and folding here would probably be a mistake in the long run against typical internet players.

[AviD]

It all depends on the opponent...but in this case here your opponent bet out on the flop (indicating he has a piece of it or a hand he wants to feel out) and is in call down mode looking for his kicker after you raise.

How often will this opponent CR the river without KJ?
What else could he hold here that you beat?

AK is unlikely as he didn't raise PF and you have AA. Unless he is prone to river quasi-bluff check raises with some underpair or when scare cards hit and/or you are likely to fold to such creative moves consistently, I think a river CR of this kind is a clear indicator you are behind. But in the heat of the moment, you make the crying call, as most of us do! /images/graemlins/wink.gif