NFL Week 4

Four bets I like this week...and one I LOVE:


San Diego -3

Atlanta -3

Miami -8.5

KC +10.5


and the one I love...


Detroit +14


cheers


keith

I disagree on SDG, agree on the next 3, am ambivalent on DET. I will likely be passing that game - I can see some value with DET but just hate betting horrible teams.


My picks this week in order of confidence (lines what I bet at CARIB):


YTD: 0-0 +0


ML Parlay: BAL -175 / MIA -400 = -102 *520/500*

- I considered betting both these teams laying the points, but am not convinced either will cover. However I will take the even money shot that they both win outright... TEN is in disarray, and while BAL has its problems it is at home and defense rarely slumps.


GBP +3 -115 *460/400*

- Green Bay is simply the better team, and is also playing much better at this point in the season. I'm very comfortable with the 3 points, figuring that it's unlikely GBP gets blown out. (I considered the ML here at +135, but getting the magic 3 seems to be worth laying the extra juice. YMMV.)


KAN +11 -110 *440/400*

- Yes, Denver's pissed about losing. Yes, they're the better team. Yes, KAN beat up on a defenseless (literally!) WAS team last Sunday. But these games are nearly always close, and I think that DEN has been hurt more by McCaffery's injury than most think. Note: this line has been climbing, but I don't think I'll do better than 11.


NYJ/BUF UNDER 37 -120 *330/275*

- I'll buy onto the common 37 here; might not be mathematically sound but it irks me to no end to lose by a hook. Basically BUF's offense is completely moribund, while NYJ's has been stagnant lately. I am slightly concerned about NYJ's lack of run defense, and BUF's porous eleven, but I'll take my chances.


ATL -3 -105 *315/300*

- This is a bit of a hunch play, based on CHI getting lots of respect for their near miss against BAL and upset of MIN. Not much more to say here.


CLE +3 +100 *200/200*

- I may be the only one in the world on CLE but they're a good defensive team at home getting points. Again this is a bit of a flyer but that's why it's low priority.


Side note: I try to keep the amount of my lowest to highest bet amounts to about 3:1. Seems to work better for emotional control, while keeping some measure of order.


Good luck,

Nakor

Week 4 Results

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ML Parlay: BAL -175 / MIA -400 = -102 *520/500*


+500 Both games went pretty much according to plan. As opposed to...


GBP +3 -115 *460/400*


-460 I'm still not sure how GBP managed to lose a game where they dominated throughout. Oh yeah, a 98 yard pick return for a 10 or 14 point swing. Ah well, such is life in the NFL.


KAN +11 -110 *440/400*

-440 Sigh. Again I would bet this every time without a second thought. Turnovers clearly the difference in this one.


NYJ/BUF UNDER 37 -120 *330/275*

-330 I was completely wrong here. At least both teams didn't quite cover the over on their own...


ATL -3 -105 *315/300*

-315 Hunches are for dogs making love. Guess CHI is better than I thought (or ATL worse, or both).


CLE +3 +100 *200/200*

+200 Got a break with a late CLE TD, but was freerolling at that point anyway. I needed it /images/smile.gif


Summary

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Record: 2-4

Total risk: 2265

Won/lost: -845

ROI: -37.3%


Parting thoughts

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1. I still believe GBP and KAN were the correct sides.

2. Flat betting would have been better this week by a small amount. I'm still going back and forth about switching to that.


Nakor