Huge pot, i'm behind, who folds the turn here?

[CardCuda]

$3-6 Live Short-handed 6 Players - (4 of whom totally suck, 1 completely drunk (CO) and me) /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Hero on the button with red 7's:

Utg folds, 2 limpers to me I raise, SB, BB, and all call.

Flop - 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif

SB checks, BB checks, MP Bets, CO raises, hero 3 bets, SB calls, BB folds, MP Caps, All call.

Turn - 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

SB Checks, MP bets, CO raises, Hero calls, SB calls, MP 3 bets, CO caps, Hero calls (praying for the board to pair), SB, and MP call......thoughts? -

[private joker]

If you were closing the action and just had to call 2, I'd say call it because the pot is huge and you've got odds to redraw to the boat. But you're not closing the action -- and people love their hands, so considering it will probably cost you 4BB to see the turn, folding is probably correct.

[Shillx]

Huh??

There are 4 players in the pot, so even if there was no money in the pot, seeing a river would *almost* be correct. With all that money already in the middle, calling is super easy here. The only question is if our hero will win if he hits the boat here. If he had the bottom set...maybe not. Given that he has the 2nd best set, he should be good if he fills up.

Brad

[private joker]

You're right, I mis-counted the number of BBs on the turn. Hero calling 4 is still beating his 4.5:1 odds necessary to find one of his 10 outs. I also had thought there were 9 outs to improve (pairing the board), but add the other 7 for quads and you get 10. Tough call knowing most of the time you'll lose, but yeah this pot is monster.

[W. Deranged]

I think this is a totally easy call.

Think of it this way... when you are faced with two cold on the turn, what is the worst case scenario... the small blind folds and it gets capped back to you. So, worst case is you are committing 4 BB on the turn against two opponents.

In that case, you will be playing for 8 bets on the turn, plus the 8 bets from the flop, and 5 from pre-flop action. So you're getting 5.25 to 1, in the worst case scenario. And that's not even including implied odds, and I am pretty confident you can count on a minimum of 2 BB on the flop, and probably more.

You have 10 outs, and I actually think your odds are a little improved because you can count on at least 2 (probably 3) of the 4 cards in the raisers' hands to be clubs. So, I think your odds of hitting are more like 10 out of 44 or 45, or about 3.5 to 1 against.

So you are getting almost 6 to 1 effective odds on a 3.5 to 1 shot. You're so money.

One thing you might worry about is whether one of your opponents has TT. In a short-handed game, with no other pre-flop raise, I think you are pretty safe. In fact, I can't really determine a logical place for a TT hand to be... SB seems to me to be the most likely place (though I think he might also have the K or Q of clubs... probably not the A). CO is drunk, so he might have it, and MP might just be really weak, but it seems pretty unlikely. One opponent on 10 7 or 10 5 is also possible, in which case your outs might be tainted slightly. Even still I don't think you need to discount your effective odds that much... maybe to 5 to 1... in that case, though, you're still set.

It's high variance, but I'd love to be in your spot.

[TheHip41]

You call both times it's two bets to you. If you pair up your seven's, 5 or 2, cap the river. If its the 10 that pairs, just try to survive without getting raised to death

[steamboatin]

The pot is to big to fold.