Craps -Passline and Odds bets - Worth It?

[lostinspace]

In Sklansky's book "Getting the best of it" he claims casino craps CANNOT be beat. That it always yeilds a negative expectation. Other authors claim that according to the laws of probabiltiy if you ONLY make the passline and odds bets you gain an advantage.

Is this true?

Can some one explain in simple mathematical terms why the passline and odds bets are positive (or negative )expectation plays?

Thanks

[playersare]

the passline carries a house edge of 1.41%.

taking free odds behind the passline will average the house edge down from 1.41% closer to zero, but it will never actually hit zero or become player positive, because you still have your original passline bet giving the house their 1.41%.

the people who are craps advantage players are so because they can supposedly control their dice throwing to avoid 7's after the point is made. it is conceivable that this physical skill can be practiced enough to perhaps nullify the house edge, or even overcome it, but probably not by much.

by only playing passline with odds, an advantage roller has the least amount of house edge to go against. every other bet on the craps table has an edge of more than 1.41%, some as high as 16.67%. no bionic arm would be able to overcome that!

on mathematical fundamentals alone, however, craps is a guaranteed winner for the casino in the long run. if only they could find people under the age of 75 who still want to play...

[Iceman]

[ QUOTE ]
In Sklansky's book "Getting the best of it" he claims casino craps CANNOT be beat. That it always yeilds a negative expectation. Other authors claim that according to the laws of probabiltiy if you ONLY make the passline and odds bets you gain an advantage.

Is this true?

Can some one explain in simple mathematical terms why the passline and odds bets are positive (or negative )expectation plays?

Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/

Craps can't be beaten no matter what you bet on, but by betting the passline and taking maximum odds you can reduce the house advantage to very low levels. Follow the link for details.

[other1]

[ QUOTE ]
on mathematical fundamentals alone, however, craps is a guaranteed winner for the casino in the long run. if only they could find people under the age of 75 who still want to play...

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you kidding? Craps is my favorite non-poker casino game. Every time I'm at the tables at Borgata they are packed with young people.

[Terry]

Sklansky has it right. Any author who tells you different either doesn’t understand it himself or is trying to sell you a phony system.

Think about this way: You lose 14 cents by putting $10 on the Pass Line and nothing you do afterward can change that.

If you bet $10 on the Pass Line at a house advantage of 1.41% you expect to lose $10 * 0.014 = $0.14.

If you bet an additional $10 odds with no house advantage you expect to lose $20 * 0.007 = $0.14.

If you take double odds you expect to lose $30 * 0.004666 = $0.14.

No matter how much odds you take, you already lost 14 cents when you put down your Pass Line bet. Adding odds makes your loss a smaller percentage of a larger amount of money, but the dollar amount lost remains the same.

[cardcounter0]

There is one bet on the craps table that has a player's advantage instead of a house advantage.

If you bet on Don't Come -- once a point is established -- your money is moved from the Don't Come box to the number.

You are laying even money that a number won't be rolled before a Seven. You have the advantage at this time.

If there is any interest, I can explain how you avoid the come-out roll on the Don't Come bet, and only have your money on the player advantage bet after the point is established.

[Acesover8s]

[ QUOTE ]
There is one bet on the craps table that has a player's advantage instead of a house advantage.

If you bet on Don't Come -- once a point is established -- your money is moved from the Don't Come box to the number.

You are laying even money that a number won't be rolled before a Seven. You have the advantage at this time.

If there is any interest, I can explain how you avoid the come-out roll on the Don't Come bet, and only have your money on the player advantage bet after the point is established.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, please explain this. I would also like you to explain exactly where you invest the millions of dollars you have made doing this.

[cardcounter0]

"I would also like you to explain exactly where you invest the millions of dollars you have made doing this."

Okay, as soon as you explain to me exactly where you have invested all the BILLIONS of dollars you have made playing poker, since as everyone agrees, this is indeed a game that can be "beaten".

Actually, the craps player advantage play is something to keep an eye out for.

I used to spend a lot of times in casinos -- keeping track of VP jackpot levels for people so they knew when to hit the banks of machines, scouting out good blackjack games and conditions, finding out when certain 'special' dealers were working which games, checking out 'wongable' slot machines, etc., etc.

Or even the more mundane, going in to cash casino cash promotion mailers, hungry and burning some comps by going to a casino resturant, stopping by to check what the operation hours and number of players in the poker room, etc., etc.

So as long as I was in the casino, picking up a few bucks on the side hustling a craps advantage play seems to be a good thing. I mean, what do you do with your time in a casino while waiting to get that seat in the poker room? Play Keno?
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[lostinspace]

Thanks for the replies. This will help (hopefully) settle a dispute with a friend who is under the misconception that with double or triple odds bets you can actually GAIN an advantage. It seems that you can only reduce the house edge to about even at best.

Thanks for taking the time to help. Happy New Year!!

[cardcounter0]

No, you can't reduce it to even.

The passline bet has a house edge or "charge" on it. The odds are completely even. So by taking more and more odds, you are "diluting" the house edge, but you can't eliminate it.

Think of it this way. It costs you $5 in parking to go downtown and shop. Consider this $5 parking fee the "house edge" on shopping. Now if you go downtown, pay $5 to park, and buy $5 worth of stuff --- the parking fee edge is 100%! You can reduce this, say you go and buy $100 worth of stuff. Now the parking fee only represents a 5% charge on your shopping. But it doesn't matter, even you go and buy the whole store for a million bucks, you are still out the $5 for parking. You can't make it $0, no matter how much you buy. (and you can't reduce the house edge on your wagers to 0% or less, even if you take 100x odds).

[Iceman]

Normally, craps players are allowed to add to a pass or come bet after the come out roll, but not to reduce it, and are allowed to reduce a don't pass or don't come bet after the come out roll but not to add to it. If a particular casino was clueless enough about the odds that they allowed players to reduce pass/come bets after the come out roll, or to add to don't pass/don't come bets after the come out roll, a player could have a huge advantage.

Some casinos close for the night at a specific time every night, and instead of closing the table to further bets and continuing to roll until all standing bets are resolved, they call "last roll", allow more bets just for that roll, and then the last roll ends the action. In that case, you have a huge advantage by just betting pass or come on the "last roll".

[cardcounter0]

"Craps players are allowed to add to a pass or come bet after the come out roll, but not to reduce it, and are allowed to reduce a don't pass or don't come bet after the come out roll but not to add to it."

It is a special situation bet. Basically, keep an eye out for a Don't bettor who is in the habit of picking up, or calling off his Don't bets. You are looking for a Don't side bettor, who is superstitious or thinks a shooter has a tendency to roll a particular number.

When you find such a bettor, side up next to him and become his pal. You can be partners!

When you bet the Don't Come or Don't Pass, you have the option of not putting your money up on the number. I have ran into players in the past, you hated the no 6 and no 8. So they would bet Don't Come, and if the point was a 6 or 8, they would take the bet down, and just make another Don't Come bet on the next roll. Similar with some bettors who thought, for example, that the shooter was rolling a lot of 5s. They would bet Don't Pass, but if the point established by the shooter was a 5, they would pick up their bet.

The trick is too partner up with these players. Instead of them calling down their bets, you tell them you will just give them their money, and leave the bet up. You are effectively "buying" their Don't Come bet.

Example -- Don't Pass Bettor bets $25 and 9 is established as the point. The bet wins if a 7 is rolled before the 9. Someone asks what time it is, and the answer is 9:00 oclock. Bettor takes this as a sign that the shooter is going to roll a 9, and wants to pick up his Don't Pass Bet. You just give him a green $25 chip, tell him not to pick it up, and you will just "take over the bet". Sort of a gentleman's agreement between you and him (House really isn't going to like this action if done very blatently).

You now have an even money $25 bet that a 7 will be rolled before a 9. You have the advantage, not the house. The whole house edge of the Don't bets is built into the initial comeout roll. If the other player is taking all the risk on the comeout roll, and then sometimes turning over the advantage of the rest of the bet to you, you will come out ahead in the long run.

So while you are standing at the craps table, sometimes getting to make advantagous craps bet, be sure to load up on the free drinks offered to the players /images/graemlins/grin.gif or keep an eagle eye at the blackjack table next to the craps table, if the count turns positive enough, you might want to suddenly get the urge to play a little blackjack, and jump into a extremely favorable shoe /images/graemlins/cool.gif

So what do you do while waiting for the poker room seat? Sit around with the rest of the rail birds and read the sports page?
/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Easy E]

The fortune is awaiting enough superstitious wrong bettors to take advantage of this for a few plays for big bets (that they are choosing).

I don't think you'll be making a living waiting for this one.

[MadManMund]

Any thoughts on Stanford Wong's supposed dice rolling system to for beating craps??

For some reason I cant link to the article. See the message board at BJ21.com (http://www.bj21.com/boards/free/free_board/index.cgi?read=140836).

He states he can roll the dice in such a way that changes his frequency of sevens.

[ QUOTE ]
Craps is beatable because customers are allowed to toss the dice, and skillful crapshooters generate results that differ from random enough so that customers have the edge over the casino on some bets.


I’ve been studying craps for about a year. I’ve read much of what has been written about beating the game, have taken Frank Scoblete’s “Golden Touch Craps” course, and have benefitted from advice from dice coach Beau Parker. I’ve practiced enough so that I personally can hold my frequency of sevens down to 1:6.5 or better, compared to 1:6 for random rolls. 1:6.5 is good enough for me to enjoy about the same edge over the casinos as casinos enjoy over random shooters. I put in a couple of hundred hours as a customer at crap tables during 2004, and have several thousand dollars of winnings to show for it.

...


[/ QUOTE ]

[cardcounter0]

I have a lot of respect for Stanford Wong. He always showed reason and had mathematical foundations for all his work with Blackjack.

But lately he seems to be straying further into huckster snake-oil selling, along with all the other "unbeatable" system selling scum.

He had good mathematics behind his Sports Betting Venture and Experiment, but I don't think any one can look at his lifetime record and call him a Sports Betting Guru. So I guess it was time to move on to "greener" pastures.

This new dice control thing of his is pure BS -- Didn't realize Stanford Wong was so hard up for money to stoop so low.

[college kid]

[ QUOTE ]
There is one bet on the craps table that has a player's advantage instead of a house advantage.

If you bet on Don't Come -- once a point is established -- your money is moved from the Don't Come box to the number.

You are laying even money that a number won't be rolled before a Seven. You have the advantage at this time.

If there is any interest, I can explain how you avoid the come-out roll on the Don't Come bet, and only have your money on the player advantage bet after the point is established.

[/ QUOTE ]

I heard about that one from my Dad who is an avid "dark side" bettor. Unfortunately, I have yet to see the even money lay any time, and I've asked about it and never gotten it. I think they realized the glitch and fixed it--now you just get to lay true odds, as always. If anybody knows of a place that still lets you lay even money after the point is established, please tell me! It's a gold mine!!!

[college kid]

Wish I'd thought of it. I will have to try that next time I'm at a craps table. Wow, you've got all kinds of nuggets up your sleeve. What else you got to share????? Despite what all these other people think, I know you are talking +EV stuff in this post and want to know as much as you are willing to share!

[college kid]

I don't think it is. Even Michael Shakleford of www.wizardofodds.com (http://www.wizardofodds.com) isn't as skeptical as he once was. The guys from GTC are talking about releasing many thousands of recorded trials so you can see the standard deviation is indeed too high. I think there is some merrit to dice control.

[cardcounter0]

I understand Wong is selling his "system" for $199 a pop.
Didn't realize he was that hard up for money.

Now do you think he is going to take all those $199 sales from the suckers and plunk that money down on the pass line?
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[CORed]

I personally think it might be possible to control the dice well enough to get an advantage. If I were going to try it, I'd want to put a craps table in my basement, and do a lot of practicing, and then record a lot of trials to make sure I really did have an edge. I think trying to learn the technique at the casino is definitely -EV. Also, if you use a hypotheitcally +EV dice rolling technique to get an edge, you are obviously going to have to minimize the amount that you bet on shooters other than yourself, unless you build a team and take over a table. The other problem is that if you do get enough of an edge to make significant money, and the casino catches on, your not going to be allowed to play, just like blackjack card counters. Also, the casinos could modify tables or change rules to make control harder. For example, put a mechanical device in the end wall that gives the dice a boost when they hit, or put a higher end wall with a line that have to hit above. These are just off the top of my head. Personally, I don't think the casinos will have much to worry about. They will probably make more money off the people that try to beat the game with skill and fail than they will off the few people who actually manage to gain the skill to have an advantage.

[college kid]

I don't know what the hell he's thinking either, trying to regurgitate all the advice and then sell it for such an ungodly price. But I do believe dice control is definately possible and practical. Why is it so hard to believe that you can alter the physical outcome just a few percentage points? While in practice it may be difficult and not as many people can do it as claim, what about the theory is so off???

[Wake up CALL]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is it so hard to believe that you can alter the physical outcome just a few percentage points?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because they still deal craps in Vegas. Plus you'll never see a player barred from a casino for playing craps yet try counting cards well for an hour or so and see the result.

The only dice control system that is successful is the one where they stay in the bowl.

[college kid]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why is it so hard to believe that you can alter the physical outcome just a few percentage points?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because they still deal craps in Vegas. Plus you'll never see a player barred from a casino for playing craps yet try counting cards well for an hour or so and see the result.

The only dice control system that is successful is the one where they stay in the bowl.

[/ QUOTE ]

They also still deal blackjack, and yes, I have actually witnesed a few dice controllers asked to play another game. Casinos believe mostly as you all and just don't worry about out, but a few are wising up.

[lefty rosen]

It definately works if the pitboss is lazy and doesn't enforce the bounce off the wall a guy can slide the dice and avoid the 7. I have witnessed this myself. Also the casino will tell a guy like this to take a hike I have seen it myself in Casino in Ontario......

[Kenrick]

[ QUOTE ]
You now have an even money $25 bet that a 7 will be rolled before a 9. You have the advantage, not the house.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is even money an advantage bet? I don't understand.

[Iceman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You now have an even money $25 bet that a 7 will be rolled before a 9. You have the advantage, not the house.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is even money an advantage bet? I don't understand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even money that a seven will be rolled before a nine is an advantage bet, since a seven is 50% more likely than a nine.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
Plus you'll never see a player barred from a casino for playing craps

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true. I have a friend who has been barred from 2 places throwing dice. I too was a nonbeliever, but Wong getting in on this is changing my mind some....

[Wake up CALL]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Plus you'll never see a player barred from a casino for playing craps

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true. I have a friend who has been barred from 2 places throwing dice. I too was a nonbeliever, but Wong getting in on this is changing my mind some....

[/ QUOTE ]

Never happened in the history of modern day man unless he was switching dice.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Plus you'll never see a player barred from a casino for playing craps

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true. I have a friend who has been barred from 2 places throwing dice. I too was a nonbeliever, but Wong getting in on this is changing my mind some....

[/ QUOTE ]

Never happened in the history of modern day man unless he was switching dice.

[/ QUOTE ]

WAY wrong. Has happened several hundred if not thousands of times, 99% of the time because of a stupid pit boss sweating the action, but I believe my friend has been barred, if not that he plays with an edge.

[eobmtns]

The Santa Ana Star casino north of Albuquerque, NM (actually in Bernalillo, NM) allows free buy bets on the 4 and 10, so you can play all the craps you want for 0% house advantage.

[tylerdurden]

[ QUOTE ]
It is a special situation bet. Basically, keep an eye out for a Don't bettor who is in the habit of picking up, or calling off his Don't bets. You are looking for a Don't side bettor, who is superstitious or thinks a shooter has a tendency to roll a particular number.

When you find such a bettor, side up next to him and become his pal. You can be partners!

When you bet the Don't Come or Don't Pass, you have the option of not putting your money up on the number. I have ran into players in the past, you hated the no 6 and no 8. So they would bet Don't Come, and if the point was a 6 or 8, they would take the bet down, and just make another Don't Come bet on the next roll. Similar with some bettors who thought, for example, that the shooter was rolling a lot of 5s. They would bet Don't Pass, but if the point established by the shooter was a 5, they would pick up their bet.

The trick is too partner up with these players. Instead of them calling down their bets, you tell them you will just give them their money, and leave the bet up. You are effectively "buying" their Don't Come bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a "special situation bet," it's an angle. It's not a bet that the casino itself will book, it requires a sucker to participate that doesn't understand that you're taking advantage of him.

[eobmtns]

What are the names of these clubs that barred dice players thought to be attempting dice control? Was this in LV? What kind of throw was the player using? Does the player in such a circumstance have the option of either using a dice cup from then on, or only betting on other shooters?